Implementation of contemporary chemotherapy for patients with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: a population-based analysis

Background: Positive results of randomized trials led to the introduction of FOLFIRINOX in 2012 and gemcitabine with nab-paclitaxel in 2015 for patients with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. It is unknown to which extent these new chemotherapeutic regimens have been implemented in clinical practice and what the impact has been on overall survival. Material and methods: Patients diagnosed with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma between 2007–2016 were included from the population-based Netherlands Cancer Registry. Multilevel logistic regression and Cox regression analyses, adjusting for patient, tumor, and hospital characteristics, were used to analyze variation of chemotherapy use. Results: In total, 8726 patients were included. The use of chemotherapy increased from 31% in 2007–2011 to 37% in 2012–2016 (p <.001). Variation in the use of any chemotherapy between centers decreased (adjusted range 2007–2011: 12–67%, 2012–2016: 20–54%) whereas overall survival increased from 5.6 months to 6.4 months (p <.001) for patients treated with chemotherapy. Use of FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine with nab-paclitaxel varied widely in 2015–2016, but both showed a more favorable overall survival compared to gemcitabine monotherapy (median 8.0 vs. 7.0 vs. 3.8 months, respectively). In the period 2015–2016, FOLFIRINOX was used in 60%, gemcitabine with nab-paclitaxel in 9.7% and gemcitabine monotherapy in 25% of patients receiving chemotherapy. Conclusion: Nationwide variation in the use of chemotherapy decreased after the implementation of FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine with nab-paclitaxel. Still a considerable proportion of patients receives gemcitabine monotherapy. Overall survival did improve, but not clinically relevant. These results emphasize the need for a structured implementation of new chemotherapeutic regimens

Conditional Survival After Resection for Pancreatic Cancer: A Population-Based Study and Prediction Model

Background: Conditional survival is the survival probability after already surviving a predefined time period. This may be informative during follow-up, especially when adjusted for tumor characteristics. Such prediction models for patients with resected pancreatic cancer are lacking and therefore conditional survival was assessed and a nomogram predicting 5-year survival at a predefined period after resection of pancreatic cancer was developed. Methods: This population-based study included patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (2005–2016). Conditional survival was calculated as the median, and the probability of surviving up to 8 years in patients who already survived 0–5 years after resection was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method. A prediction model was constructed. Results: Overall, 3082 patients were included, with a median age of 67 years. Median overall survival was 18 months (95% confidence interval 17–18 months), with a 5-year survival of 15%. The 1-year conditional survival (i.e. probability of surviving the next year) increased from 55 to 74 to 86% at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively, while the median overall survival increased from 15 to 40 to 64 months at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively. The prediction model demonstrated that the probability of achieving 5-year survival at 1 year after surgery varied from 1 to 58% depending on patient and tumor characteristics. Conclusions: This population-based study showed that 1-year conditional survival was 55% 1 year after resection and 74% 3 years after resection in patients with pancreatic cancer. The prediction model is available via www.pancreascalculator.com to inform patients and caregivers