How Endowments, Factor Accumulation, and Technology Choice Determine Growth and Productivity in Agriculture

Because rural poverty and low agricultural productivity are closely related, governments often actively pursue policies designed to boost productivity and incomes in the poorest regions. This paper examines why such large variations in agricultural productivity occur and identifies policy instruments that can be used to boost productivity. The paper also identifies the limits that nature and natural risks place on policy. After selectively reviewing the recent literature on the determinants of agricultural productivity, the paper discusses productivity outcomes in the context of endogenous choices by farmers on farming techniques. The paper examines the implications of this endogenous choice for least-squares and stochastic frontier estimation techniques and reports on new results from farm-level studies in Ecuador and NicaraguaLederman's Session

Indonesia's palm oil subsector

Debate on Indonesia's palm oil policy was stimulated by a sharp increase in cooking oil prices in 1994-95 and a resulting increase in the export tax rate on crude palm oil. Palm oil has been one of the fastest growing subsectors in Indonesia. Using a quantitative model, the author analyzes the effect of government policies, including the export tax, buffer stock operations by the BULOG (the national logistics agency), and directed sales from public estates. The author acknowledges the export tax's effectiveness in lowering domestic prices, but observes that its impact on inflation and consumer welfare is minimal. The tax has also had the unintended effect of transferring income from oil palm growers located primarily off Java. The structure of the tax discourages local processing by squeezing processing margins. And determining tax rates on palm oil products independent from the underlying crude palm oil price creates uncertainty about marketing margins for processors. The author recommends repealing the tax and discontinuing buffer stock operations and directed sales from public estates. The author concludes with recommendations on investment policy. Direct incentives to private investors have been used to overcome investment risks and uncertainties, but investors should no longer need those incentives. Instead, Indonesia's government should focus more on alleviating obstacles to private investment. The Bank might be of assistance in this area.Markets and Market Access,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Consumption,Economic Theory&Research,Consumption,Environmental Economics&Policies,Markets and Market Access,Access to Markets

On the intersectoral migration of agricultural labor

Labor is the single most important factor in determining national income. As economies grow, agricultural labor declines as a share of total labor and converges to a level of 2 or 3 percent. Off-farm migration facilitates the development of nonagriculture, but historically the process spans decades. The authors argue that the pace of the process is a fundamental outcome of a dynamic equilibrium based on expectations of lifetime earnings and the cost of migration. The authors present an empirical model of the determinants of intersectoral migration. One fundamental determinant is income differences across sectors. As such, migration should stop when income differences reach a certain level. The authors provide a method of measuring the level at which intersectoral migration will cease. While there are credible reasons for a permanent difference to exist between sectoral incomes, the authors find no empirical evidence of a permanent wedge.Environmental Economics&Policies,Labor Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Municipal Financial Management,Health Economics&Finance,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Municipal Financial Management,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Economics&Finance

Copper and the negative price of storage

Commodities are often stored during periods in which storage returns a negative price. Further, during periods of"backwardation,"the expected revenue from holding inventories will be negative. Since the 1930s, the negative price of storage has been attributed to an offsetting"convenience yield."It has been argued that inventories are a necessary adjunct to business and that increasing inventories from some minimal level reduces overall costs. This theory has always been criticized by proponents of cost-of-carry models, who argue that a negative price for storage creates arbitrage opportunities. Proponents of the cost-of-carry model have asserted that storage will occur only with positive returns. They offer a set of price-arbitrage conditions that associate negative returns with stockouts. Still, stockouts are rare in commodity markets, and storage appears to take place during periods of"backwardation"in apparent violation of the price-arbitrage conditions. For copper, inventories have always been available to the market regardless of the price of storage. The author argues that although inventories may provide a cost-reducing convenience yield, inventories also have value because of uncertainty. Just as the price of a call option contains a premium based on price variability, so the shadow price of inventories contains a dispersion premium associated with the unplanned component of inventories. The author derives a generalized price-arbitrage condition in which either a convenience and/or a dispersion premium may justify inventory holding even during an expected price fall. He uses monthly observations of U.S. producer inventories to estimate the parameters of the price-arbitrage condition. The estimates and simulations he presents are ambiguous with regard to the existence of a convenience yield but strongly support the notion of a dispersion premium for copper. And although the average value of such a premium is low, the value of the premium increases rapidly during periods when inventories are scarce.Environmental Economics&Policies,Common Carriers Industry,Markets and Market Access,Access to Markets,Economic Theory&Research

Sugar policy and reform

Reviewing cross-country experience with sugar policies, and policy reform, the authors conclude that long-standing government interventions - rooted in historical trade arrangements, fear of shortages, and conflicting interests between growers, and sugar mills - often displace both the markets, and the institutions required to produce efficient outcomes. Arrangements rooted in colonial eras, still shape policies, and trade in the United States, the European Union (EU), and many developing countries. Once policies, and institutions are put in place, households, and the value of investments grow dependent on them, even as their usefulness fades. Firms and households make decisions that are costly to reverse. And the result is a legacy of path-dependent policies, in which approaches, and instruments are greatly influenced by past agreements, and previous interventions. The cumulative effects of these interventions are embodied in livelihoods, political institutions, capital stocks, and factor markets - which not only dictate the starting point for reform, but also determine which reform paths are feasible. Experiments with public ownership, common in many countries, have not succeeded. So most countries have initiated some measure of market reform. And events relating to NAFTA, Lome, and expansion of the EU, may bring about significant changes in the EU, and US sugar regimes, with cascading effects on other countries. Common problems in the sector include determining cane quality, finding methods for fairly sharing revenues from joint production, finding ways to take advantage of preferential trade arrangements with minimal negative consequences, finding ways to finance, and encourage research, and other activities with common benefits, identifying practices that facilitate equitable, sustainable privatization, and determining the relationship between sugar market reform, and markets in land, water, credit, and other inputs.Food&Beverage Industry,Environmental Economics&Policies,Agribusiness,Agribusiness&Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Agribusiness&Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Agribusiness,Agricultural Trade

Risks, lessons learned, and secondary markets for greenhouse gas reductions

Collectively or individually, countries are likely to implement policies designed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Experience from tradable quota schemes suggests that emissions trading could significantly reduce the costs of emission limits. The Kyoto Protocol provides the framework for a common trading mechanism for all countries - including countries that would not face immediate emission limits. Significantly, the Protocol places the responsibility for meeting emission limits with national governments. How policymakers choose to implement emission limits will significantly shape the incentives that drive evolving secondary markets for greenhouse-gas-based instruments. Potential market participants who were surveyed rate policy-related risk as higher than business-related risks. Domestic polices designed to reduce fragmentation in secondary markets, establish clear baselines and procedures, and strengthen host-country institutions can all help reduce the risks and costs of emission limits.Economic Theory&Research,Labor Policies,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Economics&Finance,Health Economics&Finance,Environmental Economics&Policies,Carbon Policy and Trading,Energy and Environment,Economic Theory&Research

The effects of option hedging on the costs of domestic price stabilization schemes

Casual observation leads to the conclusion that stabilization funds tend to be short-lived. While it may be that some funds have failed due to poor management or unwarranted political interventions, the stochastic components of commodity prices can generate insurmountable difficulties for even the most expert managers. Price-band schemes contain an element of information feed-back and offer transparent rules -- attributes which make such schemes preferable to many alternative mechanisms -- but the benefits to producers tend to be, on average, quite small. Similar average benefits can be generated with very small import taxes or producer subsidies. Nevertheless, such schemes can have large single-year effects. The simulation results demonstrate that, if adopted, such funds should be hedged unless the government is not at all adverse to the fund's financial failure. Still, hedged or unhedged, such funds will, with eventual certainty, generate large levels of debt as a statistically"rare"sequence of events must eventually occur. By hedging, the funds are more likely to survive in the short-run.Environmental Economics&Policies,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Insurance&Risk Mitigation

The performance of Bulgarian food markets during reform

Food policy often depends on markets and markets depend on institutions. But how good do institutions have to be before reforms can be launched? Relying on well timed surveys of agricultural prices and a joint study by the Government of Bulgaria and the World Bank on agricultural market institutions, this paper presents evidence that performance in food markets improved following significant policy reforms in Bulgaria, although public institutions remained weak. This suggests that even though strong institutions are preferred to weak ones, it can be costly and impractical to delay policy reforms until work on strengthening institutions is finished. Still, measured performance varied by place and by commodity, suggesting that markets developed at different tempos and that the distribution of benefits from improved markets was uneven. This points to the need to address the costs of adjustment as policies change. The paper introduces a new approach to measure market performance based on composite-error techniques.Markets and Market Access,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Economic Theory&Research,Access to Markets,Agribusiness