Dire warnings about children dying because of apps and games are a form of 'juvenoia'

In this post Larry Magid takes a look at the recent media coverage of two apps and games that have been accused of harming children's mental health. He argues that these sensationalist stories are often based on fake news and may serve only to exaggerate fears surrounding online risk in potentially damaging ways. Larry is a technology journalist and an Internet safety advocate. He is CEO and co-founder of ConnectSafely and an on-air technology analyst for CBS News

Use of Risk Models to Predict Death in the Next Year Among Individual Ambulatory Patients With Heart Failure

Importance: The clinical practice guidelines for heart failure recommend the use of validated risk models to estimate prognosis. Understanding how well models identify individuals who will die in the next year informs decision making for advanced treatments and hospice. Objective: To quantify how risk models calculated in routine practice estimate more than 50% 1-year mortality among ambulatory patients with heart failure who die in the subsequent year. Design, Setting, and Participants: Ambulatory adults with heart failure from 3 integrated health systems were enrolled between 2005 and 2008. The probability of death was estimated using the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk calculator. Baseline covariates were collected from electronic health records. Missing covariates were imputed. Estimated mortality was compared with actual mortality at both population and individual levels. Main Outcomes and Measures: One-year mortality. Results: Among 10930 patients with heart failure, the median age was 77 years, and 48.0% of these patients were female. In the year after study enrollment, 1661 patients died (15.9% by life-table analysis). At the population level, 1-year predicted mortality among the cohort was 9.7% for the SHFM (C statistic of 0.66) and 17.5% for the MAGGIC risk calculator (C statistic of 0.69). At the individual level, the SHFM predicted a more than 50% probability of dying in the next year for 8 of the 1661 patients who died (sensitivity for 1-year death was 0.5%) and for 5 patients who lived at least a year (positive predictive value, 61.5%). The MAGGIC risk calculator predicted a more than 50% probability of dying in the next year for 52 of the 1661 patients who died (sensitivity, 3.1%) and for 63 patients who lived at least a year (positive predictive value, 45.2%). Conversely, the SHFM estimated that 8496 patients (77.8%) had a less than 15% probability of dying at 1 year, yet this lower-risk end of the score range captured nearly two-thirds of deaths (n = 997); similarly, the MAGGIC risk calculator estimated a probability of dying of less than 25% for the majority of patients who died at 1 year (n = 914). Conclusions and Relevance: Although heart failure risk models perform reasonably well at the population level, they do not reliably predict which individual patients will die in the next year

Risk of Heart Failure in Breast Cancer Patients After Anthracycline and Trastuzumab Treatment: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background: Clinical trials demonstrated that women treated for breast cancer with anthracycline or trastuzumab are at increased risk for heart failure and/or cardiomyopathy (HF/CM), but the generalizability of these findings is unknown. We estimated real-world adjuvant anthracycline and trastuzumab use and their associations with incident HF/CM. Methods We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study of 12 500 women diagnosed with incident, invasive breast cancer from January 1, 1999 through December 31, 2007, at eight integrated Cancer Research Network health systems. Using administrative procedure and pharmacy codes, we identified anthracycline, trastuzumab, and other chemotherapy use. We identified incident HF/CM following chemotherapy initiation and assessed risk of HF/CM with time-varying chemotherapy exposures vs no chemotherapy. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with adjustment for age at diagnosis, stage, Cancer Research Network site, year of diagnosis, radiation therapy, and comorbidities. Results: Among 12 500 women (mean age = 60 years, range = 22–99 years), 29.6% received anthracycline alone, 0.9% received trastuzumab alone, 3.5% received anthracycline plus trastuzumab, 19.5% received other chemotherapy, and 46.5% received no chemotherapy. Anthracycline and trastuzumab recipients were younger, with fewer comorbidities than recipients of other chemotherapy or none. Compared with no chemotherapy, the risk of HF/CM was higher in patients treated with anthracycline alone (adjusted HR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.11 to 1.76), although the increased risk was similar to other chemotherapy (adjusted HR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.25 to 1.77); the risk was highly increased in patients treated with trastuzumab alone (adjusted HR = 4.12, 95% CI = 2.30 to 7.42) or anthracycline plus trastuzumab (adjusted HR = 7.19, 95% CI = 5.00 to 10.35). Conclusions: Anthracycline and trastuzumab were primarily used in younger, healthier women and associated with increased HF/CM risk compared with no chemotherapy. This population-based observational study complements findings from clinical trials on cancer treatment safety

ConnectSafely\u27s Interview with Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg

Mark Zuckerberg is interviewed by ConnectSafely in 2010 (audio only)https://epublications.marquette.edu/zuckerberg_files_videos/1040/thumbnail.jp

Patterns of beta-blocker intensification in ambulatory heart failure patients and short-term association with hospitalization

Abstract Background In response to the short-term negative inotropic and chronotropic effects of β-blockers, heart failure (HF) guidelines recommend initiating β-blockers at low dose with gradual uptitration as tolerated to doses used in clinical trials. However, patterns and safety of β-blocker intensification in routine practice are poorly described. Methods We described β-blocker intensification among Kaiser Colorado enrollees with a primary discharge diagnosis of HF between 2001–2009. We then assessed β-blocker intensification in the 30 days prior to first hospital readmission for cases compared to the same time period following index hospitalization for non-rehospitalized matched controls. In separate analysis of the subgroup initiated on β-blocker after index hospital discharge, we compared adjusted rates of 30-day hospitalization following initiation of high versus low dose β-blocker. Results Among 3,227 patients, median age was 76 years and 37% had ejection fraction ≤40% (LVSD). During a median follow up of 669 days, 14% were never on β-blocker, 21% were initiated on β-blocker, 43% were discharged on β-blocker but never uptitrated, and 22% had discharge β-blocker uptitrated; 63% were readmitted and 49% died. β-blocker intensification occurred in the 30 days preceding readmission for 39 of 1,674 (2.3%) readmitted cases compared to 27 (1.6%) of matched controls (adjusted OR 1.36, 95% CI 0.81-2.27). Among patients initiated on therapy, readmission over the subsequent 30 days occurred in 6 of 155 (3.9%) prescribed high dose and 9 of 513 (1.8%) prescribed low dose β-blocker (adjusted OR 3.10, 95% CI 1.02-9.40). For the subgroup with LVSD, findings were not significantly different. Conclusion While β-blockers were intensified in nearly half of patients following hospital discharge and high starting dose was associated with increased readmission risk, the prevailing finding was that readmission events were rarely preceded by β-blocker intensification. These data suggest that β-blocker intensification is not a major precipitant of hospitalization, provided recommended dosing is followed.</p

Patterns of comorbidity in older adults with heart failure: the Cardiovascular Research Network PRESERVE study

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether the total burden of comorbidity and pattern of co-occurring conditions varies in individuals with heart failure (HF) with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (HF-P) or HF with reduced LVEF (HF-R). DESIGN: Cross-sectional cohort study. SETTING: Four participating health plans within the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute-sponsored Cardiovascular Research Network. PARTICIPANTS: All members aged 65 and older with HF based on hospital discharge and ambulatory visit diagnoses. MEASUREMENTS: Participants with a LVEF of 50% or greater were classified as having HF-P. Presence of cardiac and noncardiac comorbidities was obtained from health plan administrative databases. RESULTS: Of 23,435 individuals identified with HF and LVEF information, 53% (12,407) had confirmed HF-P (mean age 79.6; 60% female). More than three-quarters of the sample had three or more co-occurring conditions in addition to HF, and half had five or more cooccurring conditions. Participants with HF-P had a slightly higher burden of comorbidity than those with HF-R (mean 4.5 vs 4.4, P = .002). Patterns of how specific conditions co-occurred did not vary in participants with preserved or reduced systolic function. CONCLUSION: There is a high degree of comorbidity and multiple morbidity in individuals with HF. The burden and pattern of comorbidity varies only slightly in individuals with preserved or reduced LVEF. Geriatrics Society