Does Firm Value Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Cash Flow?

The appropriate measure of cash flow for valuing corporate assets is net payout, which is the sum of dividends, interest, and net repurchases of equity and debt. Variation in net payout yield, the ratio of net payout to asset value, is mostly driven by movements in expected cash flow growth, instead of movements in discount rates. Net payout yield is less persistent than dividend yield and implies much smaller variation in long-horizon discount rates. Therefore, movements in the value of corporate assets can be justified by changes in expected future cash flow.

Does Firm Value Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Cash Flow?

The appropriate measure of cash flow for valuing corporate assets is net payout, which is the sum of dividends, interest, and net repurchases of equity and debt. Variation in net payout yield, the ratio of net payout to asset value, is mostly driven by movements in expected cash flow growth, instead of movements in discount rates. Net payout yield is less persistent than dividend yield and implies much smaller variation in long-horizon discount rates. Therefore, movements in the value of corporate assets can be justified by changes in expected future cash flow

World betas, consumption growth, and financial integration

We define a country's beta as the covariance of domestic consumption growth with world consumption growth scaled by the world's variance. Beta is related to a country's risk-taking position in models of international financial integration. Empirically, we find that an increase in beta leads to an increase in average consumption growth. This beta-growth relationship is present only among countries with high levels of financial openness, and is absent among the rest. However, we cannot fully discard the presence of non-financial factors (e.g., trade openness) as determinants of the beta-growth relationship.Financial integration International risk-sharing Risk-taking Consumption growth

Financial development, financial constraints, and the volatility of industrial output

More financially developed countries show lower volatility of industrial output. Volatility is particularly reduced in industries that are more financially dependent. Most of the reduction is in idiosyncratic volatility. Systematic volatility is reduced less strongly, implying that industries are more closely correlated with GDP in more financially developed countries. At the firm level, short-term debt is negatively correlated with output as financial development increases, suggesting that debt is used in a countercyclical way to stabilize production. The results indicate that financial development relaxes financial constraints mainly to smooth negative cashflow shocksFinancial modernization ; Industrial productivity

The stock market and cross country differences in relative prices

This paper studies the impact of stock market development on cross country relative prices (the real exchange rate). A nonlinear relationship is uncovered in the cross section: prices and the stock market increase together in the beginning; then prices fall as the stock market continues to develop. In fact, among rich countries the relationship between prices and the stock market is negative. This result obtains after controlling for per capita income and for endogeneity issues by using legal origins. A small open economy model is presented to explain the connection between stock market development and relative prices: better investment opportunities increase consumption levels and the price of nontradable goods (income effect); but if stock market assets are less labor intensive than previous entrepreneurial technologies, prices can fall as the stock market grows because more labor is available for producing nontradables (substitution effect). This paper illustrates the connection of the stock market with goods and labor markets; it also has potential implications for the political economy of financial development. In a sideline contribution, it provides prices for entrepreneurial assets.Stock market ; Stock - Prices

Replication data for: Stock Market Development and Cross-Country Differences in Relative Prices

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