Viral marketing can be a safe bet

Today, from a business and marketing perspective, vast numbers of customers and potential customers interact with one another through electronic and online channels that range from emails to social media hubs such as Facebook, MySpace and Twitter

A Viral Branching Model for Predicting the Spread of Electronic Word-of-Mouth

In a viral marketing campaign an organization develops a marketing message, and stimulates customers to forward this message to their contacts. Despite its increasing popularity, there are no models yet that help marketers to predict how many customers a viral marketing campaign will reach, and how marketers can influence this process through marketing activities. This paper develops such a model using the theory of branching processes. The proposed Viral Branching Model allows customers to participate in a viral marketing campaign by 1) opening a seeding email from the organization, 2) opening a viral email from a friend, and 3) responding to other marketing activities such as banners and offline advertising. The model parameters are estimated using individual-level data that become available in large quantities already in the early stages of viral marketing campaigns. The Viral Branching Model is app

Competition for attention in online social networks: Implications for seeding strategies

Many firms try to leverage consumers’ interactions on social platforms as part of their communication strategies. However, information on online social networks only propagates if it receives consumers’ attention. This paper proposes a seeding strategy to maximize information propagation while accounting for competition for attention. The theory of exchange networks serves as the framework for identifying the optimal seeding strategy and recommends seeding people that have many friends, who, in turn, have only a few friends. There is little competition for the attention of those seeds’ friends, and these friends are therefore responsive to the messages they receive. Using a game-theoretic model, we show that it is optimal to seed people with the highest Bonacich centrality. Importantly, in contrast to previous seeding literature that assumed a fixed and non-negative connectivity parameter of the Bonacich measure, we demonstrate that this connectivity parameter is negative and needs to be estimated. Two independent empirical validations using a total of 34 social media campaigns on two different large online social networks show that the proposed seeding strategy can substantially increase a campaign’s reach. The second study uses the activity network of messages exchanged to confirm that the effects are driven by competition for attention

Cross-National Logo Evaluation Analysis: An Individual Level Approach

The universality of design perception and response is tested using data collected from ten countries: Argentina, Australia, China, Germany, Great Britain, India, the Netherlands, Russia, Singapore, and the United States. A Bayesian, finite-mixture, structural-equation model is developed that identifies latent logo clusters while accounting for heterogeneity in evaluations. The concomitant v

Efficient Estimation of Network Games of Incomplete Information: Application to Large Online Social Networks. {forthcoming}

This paper presents a structural discrete choice model with social influence for large-scale social networks. The model is based on an incomplete information game and permits individual-specific parameters of consumers. It is challenging to apply this type of models to real-life scenarios for two reasons: 1) the computation of the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium is highly demanding, and 2) the identification of social influence requires the use of excluded variables that are oftentimes unavailable. To address these challenges, we derive the unique equilibrium conditions of the game, which allow us to employ a stochastic Bayesian estimation procedure that is scalable to large social networks. To facilitate the identification, we utilize community detection algorithms to divide the network into different groups that, in turn, can be used to construct excluded variables. We validate the proposed structural model with the login decisions of more than 25,000 users of an online social game. Importantly, this dataset also contains promotions that were exogenously determined and targeted to only a subgroup of consumers. This information allows us to perform exogeneity tests to validate our identification strategy using community detection algorithms. Finally, we demonstrate the managerial usefulness of the proposed methodology for improving the strategies of targeting influential consumers in large social networks

Uncovering the importance of relationship characteristics in social networks

Seeding influential social network members is crucial for the success of a viral marketing campaign and product diffusion. In line with the assumption that connections between customers in social networks are binary (either present or absent), previous research has generally recommended seeding network members who are well-connected. However, the importance of connections between customers varies substantially depending on the relati