Saving, Microinsurance: Why You Should Do Both or Nothing. A Behavioral Experiment on the Philippines

This paper analyzes data from a novel field experiment designed to test the impact of two different insurance products and a secret saving device on solidarity in risk-sharing groups among rural villagers in the Philippines. Risk is simulated by a lottery, risk-sharing is possible in solidarity groups of three and insurance is introduced via less risky lotteries. Our main hypothesis is that formal market-based products lead to lower transfers among network members. We also test for the persistence of this crowding-out of solidarity. We find evidence for a reduction of solidarity by insurance if shocks are observable. Depending on insurance design, there is also evidence for persistence of this effect even if insurance is removed. Simulations using our regression results show that the benefits of insurance are completely offset by the reduction in transfers. However, if secret saving is possible solidarity is very low in general and there is no crowding out effect of insurance. This suggests that introducing formal insurance is not as effective as it is hoped for when the monetary situation can be closely monitored, but that it might be a very important complement when savings inhibit observing financial resources. --

Can microinsurance help prevent child labor? An impact evaluation from Pakistan

Child labor is a common consequence of economic shocks in developing countries. We show how reducing vulnerability can affect child labor and schooling. We exploit the extension of a health and accident insurance scheme by a Pakistani microfinance institution (MFI) that was set up as a randomized controlled trial and accompanied by household panel surveys. Together with increased coverage the MFI offered assistance with claim procedures in treatment branches. Using Difference-in-difference techniques we find lower incidence of child labor and lower child labor earnings caused by the innovation. Separating the two parts of the innovation package, the effects of claim assistance are mostly insignificant, while increased insurance coverage has large effects on child labor outcomes and days missed at school. Consistent with a theoretical model we develop in this paper, the effect is largely due to an ex-ante feeling of protection as opposed to a shock-mitigation effect

Systems of random linear equations and the phase transition in MacArthur's resource-competition model

Complex ecosystems generally consist of a large number of different species utilizing a large number of different resources. Several of their features cannot be captured by models comprising just a few species and resources. Recently, Tikhonov and Monasson have shown that a high-dimensional version of MacArthur's resource competition model exhibits a phase transition from a 'vulnerable' to a 'shielded' phase in which the species collectively protect themselves against an inhomogeneous resource influx from the outside. Here we point out that this transition is more general and may be traced back to the existence of non-negative solutions to large systems of random linear equations. Employing Farkas' Lemma we map this problem to the properties of a fractional volume in high dimensions which we determine using methods from the statistical mechanics of disordered systems.Comment: Updated version accepted for publication in Europhysics Letters. New titel, additional References and expanded supplementary material. 5 pages, 3 figure

Saving, Microinsurance: Why You Should Do Both or Nothing. A Behavioral Experiment on the Philippines

This paper analyzes data from a novel field experiment designed to test the impact of two different insurance products and a secret saving device on solidarity in risk-sharing groups among rural villagers in the Philippines. Risk is simulated by a lottery, risk-sharing is possible in solidarity groups of three and insurance is introduced via less risky lotteries. Our main hypothesis is that formal market-based products lead to lower transfers among network members. We also test for the persistence of this crowding-out of solidarity. We find evidence for a reduction of solidarity by insurance if shocks are observable. Depending on insurance design, there is also evidence for persistence of this effect even if insurance is removed. Simulations using our regression results show that the benefits of insurance are completely offset by the reduction in transfers. However, if secret saving is possible solidarity is very low in general and there is no crowding out effect of insurance. This suggests that introducing formal insurance is not as effective as it is hoped for when the monetary situation can be closely monitored, but that it might be a very important complement when savings inhibit observing financial resources

Intergenerational Coresidence and Female Labour Supply

We examine the role of family structure, specifically of co-residence with parents in-law, for female labour supply. To account for the endogeneity of co-residence, we exploit a tradition in Central Asia, namely that the youngest son of a family usually lives with his parents. Using data from Kyrgyzstan, we therefore instrument co-residence with being married to a youngest son. We find that the effect of co-residence on female labour supply - though insignificant - tends to be negative

Ethnic Risk Sharing among the Rural Population in Vietnam - An Experimental Approach

We investigate the impact of mutual support in case of financial losses within a multi-ethnical society in Vietnam by using an experimental approach. We test for the effects of ethnic discrimination with regards to risk sharing by conducting the Solidarity Game based on Selten & Ockenfels (1998). We find no evidence for ethnic discrimination between the groups. But, we can show remarkable differences in behavior when it comes to mutual support in times of idiosyncratic shocks where the richer group showed a rather altruistic behavior of mutual support towards the poorer and the poorer group based their decisions in the experimental lab on past real life experiences

Essays on formal insurance and informal solidarity in developing countries

In developing countries, shocks such as illness, death of family members, natural catastrophes, price fluctuations, unemployment and many more constitute a real economic threat. Especially poor and vulnerable households are often forced to sell productive assets, reduce consumption, take children out of school and send them to work, all of which may have long-term negative consequences on human capital accumulation and income. Hence, low-income households face the danger of being trapped in a vicious circle of poverty by economic shocks. This dissertation deals with the potential to insure against such risks in developing countries. I do not consider insurance in the narrow sense. Instead I focus on two aspects: First, I assess informal risk-sharing arrangement in social networks that act as an informal insurance. While many arrangements are based on explicit reciprocity (reward and punishment), I focus on pro-social solidarity transfers that require trust and altruism. Second, I consider the potential of formal insurance products for the poor – so-called microinsurance. In different chapters I explore conditions under which solidarity transfers occur and how they can be affected by the availability of formal insurance. The latter is also the reason for focusing on solidarity instead of reciprocity: While reciprocity based on rational self-interest should be easily restored after a change in economic incentives, the same is probably more difficult if pro-social motivations were crowded out. In the last part of the dissertation I focus on a positive side effect of reduced vulnerability and evaluate the impact of formal health insurance on child labor. The data is collected using different techniques. Standard household surveys are used for items that can be quantified in a relatively objective way, while behavioral experiments are employed to gather pro-social solidarity that is otherwise hard to measure. All causal analyses rely on experiments, i.e. truly random variation. I also use theoretical models in two cases: to further advance identification of effects from the data analysis and to rationalize empirical results. I believe that this mix of methods is well suited for the variety of analytical challenges. The three chapters of the dissertation are described in more detail in the following. In the context of economic uncertainty and when formal insurance is weak, informal risk-sharing mechanisms play a large role. Hence, informal transfers are especially important in developing countries. One important component of such transfers is solidarity within the social network. Chapter 2 (joint work with Björn Vollan) examines two potential drivers of such solidarity transfers: network strength and collective action. While the former relates to trust in a specific relationship, the latter is often associated with more generalized trust and conditional cooperation type in the literature. We build a simple model to illustrate how solidarity might be influenced by specific trust, generalized trust and cooperator type. We then exploit the unique setup of a behavioral game we conducted in the Philippines to test the causal effect of network strength on solidarity and whether collective action relates to solidarity through generalized trust or cooperator type. We find that network strength has a positive effect on solidarity transfers. We also find that – depending on organization type – collective action might relate to both generalized trust and cooperator type. Chapter 3 (joint work with Markus Frölich and Björn Vollan) tests the impact of insurance on solidarity in a behavioral experiment with rural Filipinos when people have the possibility to hide part of their income. We find that offering insurance crowds out solidarity if income shocks are observable such that benefits of insurance are completely offset. Reduced solidarity might persist even if insurance is removed in a later round. However, when hiding income is possible, solidarity is already low without insurance and there is no additional negative effect of insurance. Hence, formal insurance is not effective when the monetary situation can be closely monitored, but it might be an important complement when financial resources cannot be observed. Chapter 4 (joint work with Markus Frölich) assesses another aspect of insurance for the poor. Microinsurance is an actively advocated financial instrument at the moment, and thought to reduce vulnerability of poor households to economic shocks. Many evaluations of microinsurance explore effects on financial protection, access to health care and risk taking in other domains (e.g. agricultural investment). Yet, there is an especially undesirable consequence of shocks that might be mitigated by microinsurance and has received surprisingly little attention until now: child labor. Taking children out of school and sending them to work may have long-term consequences on children’s human capital or health. We are therefore interested in the impact of insurance on school attendance and child labor outcomes. We exploit the recent extension of a health and accident insurance scheme by a Pakistani microfinance institution (MFI) that was set up as a randomized control trial and accompanied by a household panel (baseline plus four follow-up surveys). Together with increased coverage the MFI offered assistance with claim procedures in the treatment area. Difference-in-difference techniques are employed to control for accidental selection across the limited number of randomization clusters. We find evidence for lower incidence of child labor and strong evidence for households to rely less on child labor earnings after the innovation in the treatment branches. Separating the two parts of the innovation package, the effects of claim assistance are mostly insignificant, while increased insurance coverage has large and highly significant effects on child labor outcomes and days missed at school. Consistent with a theoretical model we develop in this paper, the effect is largely due to an ex-ante feeling of protection as opposed to a shock-mitigation effect

Contract Nonperformance and Ambiguity in Insurance Markets

Insurance contract nonperformance relates to situations when valid claims are not paid by the insurer. We extend probabilistic insurance models to allow for such nonperformance risk as well as ambiguity regarding nonperformance and loss probabilities. We empirically test theoretical predictions from our model within a field lab experiment in a low-income setting. This is a persuasive context, since especially in emerging and poorly regulated markets there is a higher chance of contract nonperformance. In line with our predictions, insurance demand decreases by 17 percentage points in the presence of contract nonperformance risk and is reduced by a further 14 percentage points when contract nonperformance risk is ambiguous. It also seems that ambiguity does not easily disappear with experience. The results have implications for both industrialized and developing insurance markets

Cooperation under democracy and authoritarian norms

There is ample evidence for a "democracy premium". Laws that have been implemented via election lead to a more cooperative behavior compared to a top-down approach. This has been observed using field data and laboratory experiments. We present evidence from Chinese students and workers who participated in public goods experiments and a value survey. We find a premium for top-down rule implementation stemming from people with stronger individual values for obeying authorities. When participants have values for obeying authorities, they even conform to non-preferred rule. Our findings provide strong evidence that the efficiency of political institutions depends on societal norms