Early virological response to HIV treatment: can we predict who is likely to experience subsequent treatment failure? Results from an observational cohort study, London, UK

INTRODUCTION: For people living with HIV, the first antiretroviral treatment (ART) regimen offers the best chance for a good virological response. Early identification of those unlikely to respond to first‐line ART could enable timely intervention and increase chances of a good initial treatment response. In this study we assess the extent to which the HIV RNA viral load (VL) at 1 and 3 months is predictive of first‐line treatment outcome at 6 months. METHODS: All previously ART‐naive individuals starting ART at two London centres since 2000 with baseline (−180 to 3 days) VL >500 c/mL had a VL measurement between 6 and 12 months after starting ART, and at least one at month 1 (4–60 days) or month 3 (61–120 days) were included. Lack of treatment response was defined as (i) VL >200 copies/mL at 6 months or (ii) VL >200 copies/mL at 6 months or simultaneous switch in drugs from at least two different drug classes before 6 months. The association with VL measurements at 1 and 3 months post‐ART; change from pre‐ART in these values; and CD4 count measurements at 1 and 3 months were assessed using logistic regression models. The relative fit of the models was compared using the Akaike information criterion (AIC). RESULTS: A total of 198 out of 3258 individuals (6%) experienced lack of treatment response at 6 months (definition i), increasing to 511 (16%) for definition (ii). Those with a 1‐month (day 4–60 window) VL of 100,000 copies/ml had a 4%, 8%, 23% and 24% chance, respectively, of subsequently experiencing treatment non‐response at 6 months (definition (i)). When considering the 3‐month (day 61–120 window) VL, the chances of subsequently experiencing treatment non‐response were, respectively, 3%, 25%, 67% and 75%. Results were similar for definition (ii). CONCLUSIONS: Whilst 3‐month VL provides good discrimination between low and high risk of treatment failure, 1‐month VL does not. Presence of a VL >10,000 copies/ml after 3 months of ART is a cutoff above which individuals are at a sufficiently higher risk of non‐response that they may be considered for intervention

All-cause hospitalisation according to demographic group in people living with HIV in the current ART era: Recent findings from a cohort study in the UK

OBJECTIVE: We investigated differences in all-cause hospitalisation between key demographic groups among people with HIV in the UK in the current ART era. DESIGN/METHODS: We used data from the Royal Free HIV Cohort study between 2007 and 2018. Individuals were classified into five groups: men who have sex with men (MSM), Black African men who have sex with women (MSW), MSW of other ethnicity, Black African women and women of other ethnicity. We studied hospitalisations during the first year after HIV diagnosis (Analysis-A) separately from those more than one year after diagnosis (Analysis-B). In Analysis-A, time to first hospitalisation was assessed using Cox regression adjusted for age and diagnosis date. In Analysis-B, subsequent hospitalisation rate was assessed using Poisson regression, accounting for repeated hospitalisation within individuals, adjusted for age, calendar year, time since diagnosis. RESULTS: The hospitalisation rate was 30.7/100 person-years in the first year after diagnosis and 2.7/100 person-years subsequently; 52% and 13% hospitalisations respectively were AIDS-related. Compared to MSM, MSW and women were at much higher risk of hospitalisation during the first year [aHR (95%CI): 2.7 (1.7-4.3), 3.0 (2.0-4.4), 2.0 (1.3-2.9), 3.0 (2.0-4.5) for Black African MSW; other ethnicity MSW; Black African women; other ethnicity women respectively, Analysis-A] and remained at increased risk subsequently [corresponding aIRR (95% CI): 1.7 (1.2-2.4), 2.1 (1.5-2.8), 1.5 (1.1-1.9), 1.7 (1.2-2.3), Analysis-B]. CONCLUSIONS: In this setting with universal healthcare, substantial variation exists in hospitalisation risk across demographic groups, both in early and subsequent periods after HIV diagnosis, highlighting the need for targeted interventions

Opposing associations of depression with sexual behaviour: implications for epidemiological investigation among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this report is to investigate the nature of the relationship between depression and condomless sex (CLS) among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). METHODS: Data are from the Antiretrovirals, Sexual Transmission Risk and Attitude (ASTRA) study of people living with HIV and attending one of eight HIV outpatient clinics in England (2011-2012) and the Attitudes to and Understanding of Risk of Acquisition of HIV (AURAH) study of HIV-negative/unknown status individuals attending one of 20 genitourinary medicine clinics in England (2013-2014). This analysis included GBMSM only. For each study, the prevalence of depressive symptoms (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 score ≥10) was presented according to three categories of sex in the past 3 months (considering anal/vaginal sex with men/women and anal sex with men in separate definitions): (1) no sex, (2) condom-protected sex only and (3) CLS. Multinomial logistic regression with 'condom-protected sex only' as the reference group was used to adjust for age and (for ASTRA participants) time since HIV diagnosis. RESULTS: There were opposing associations of depression with recent sexual behaviour: the prevalence of depression was higher among those who reported no sex and those who reported CLS, compared with those who reported condom-protected sex only. Among the 2170 HIV-positive GBMSM in ASTRA, considering anal/vaginal sex with men/women, the prevalence of depressive symptoms was 32%, 20% and 28%, respectively, among men reporting no sex (n=783), condom-protected sex only (n=551) and CLS (n=836) (global p<0.001). Among the 1477 HIV-negative GBMSM in AURAH, the prevalence of depressive symptoms was 12%, 8% and 13%, respectively, for no sex (n=137), condom-protected sex only (n=487) and CLS (n=853) (global p=0.017). Patterns were similar after adjustment and when only considering anal sex between men. CONCLUSIONS: Depression may be linked both to lack of sexual activity and to sexual risk taking. When investigating associations between depression and CLS, it is important to separate out individuals reporting condom-protected sex only from those reporting no sex

Is physician assessment of alcohol consumption useful in predicting risk of severe liver disease among people with HIV and HIV/HCV co-infection?

Background Alcohol consumption is a known risk factor for liver disease in HIV-infected populations. Therefore, knowledge of alcohol consumption behaviour and risk of disease progression associated with hazardous drinking are important in the overall management of HIV disease. We aimed at assessing the usefulness of routine data collected on alcohol consumption in predicting risk of severe liver disease (SLD) among people living with HIV (PLWHIV) with or without hepatitis C infection seen for routine clinical care in Italy. Methods We included PLWHIV from two observational cohorts in Italy (ICONA and HepaICONA). Alcohol consumption was assessed by physician interview and categorized according to the National Institute for Food and Nutrition Italian guidelines into four categories: abstainer; moderate; hazardous and unknown. SLD was defined as presence of FIB4 > 3.25 or a clinical diagnosis of liver disease or liver-related death. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between level of alcohol consumption at baseline and risk of SLD. Results Among 9542 included PLWHIV the distribution of alcohol consumption categories was: abstainers 3422 (36%), moderate drinkers 2279 (23%), hazardous drinkers 637 (7%) and unknown 3204 (34%). Compared to moderate drinkers, hazardous drinking was associated with higher risk of SLD (adjusted hazard ratio, aHR = 1.45; 95% CI: 1.03–2.03). After additionally controlling for mode of HIV transmission, HCV infection and smoking, the association was attenuated (aHR = 1.32; 95% CI: 0.94–1.85). There was no evidence that the association was stronger when restricting to the HIV/HCV co-infected population. Conclusions Using a brief physician interview, we found evidence for an association between hazardous alcohol consumption and subsequent risk of SLD among PLWHIV, but this was not independent of HIV mode of transmission, HCV-infection and smoking. More efforts should be made to improve quality and validity of data on alcohol consumption in cohorts of HIV/HCV-infected individuals

Non-Disclosure of HIV Status and Associations with Psychological Factors, ART Non-Adherence, and Viral Load Non-Suppression Among People Living with HIV in the UK

Disclosure of HIV status to family, friends, and a stable partner may be linked to improved health outcomes for people living with HIV. This study assessed whether non-disclosure is associated with psychological symptoms, non-adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART), and viral load (VL) non-suppression. A total of 3258 HIV-diagnosed individuals in the UK completed the confidential ASTRA study questionnaire (2011-2012). Participants reported whether they told anyone they had HIV; to which confidant(s) (friends, family, work colleagues, stable partner) and to what extent (none, some, most/all). The prevalence and factors associated with non-disclosure were assessed. Associations between non-disclosure and the following factors were established using modified Poisson regression with adjustment for socio-demographic factors (gender, age group, ethnicity), HIV-related factors (time since HIV diagnosis, ART status), and clinic: low social support (score ≤ 12 on modified Duke-UNC FSSQ); depression and anxiety symptoms (≥10 on PHQ-9 and GAD-7 respectively); self-reported ART non-adherence in past 2 weeks/3 months; VL non-suppression (clinic-recorded VL > 50 copies/mL among those who started ART ≥ 6 months ago). Among 3233 participants with disclosure data, the prevalence of non-disclosure to anyone was 16.6 % (n/N = 61/367) among heterosexual men, 15.7 % (98/626) among women, and 5.0 % (113/2240) among MSM. MSM were more likely to disclose to some/all friends compared to family (85.8 vs. 59.9 %) while heterosexuals were less likely to disclose to friends than family (44.1 vs. 61.1 % for men, 57.5 vs. 67.1 % for women). Among 1,631 participants with a stable partner, non-disclosure to a stable partner was 4.9 % for MSM, 10.9 % for heterosexual men, and 13.0 % for women. In adjusted analyses, older age (≥60 years), non-white ethnicity, more recent HIV diagnosis, and not having a stable partner were significantly associated with overall non-disclosure for MSM and heterosexual individuals. The prevalence of low social support was 14.4 %, of depression and anxiety symptoms 27.1 and 22.0 %, respectively, of ART non-adherence 31.8 %, and of viral load non-suppression on ART 9.8 %. There was no evidence that non-disclosure overall (versus disclosure to anyone) was associated with low social support, depression or anxiety symptoms, ART non-adherence or VL non-suppression among MSM or heterosexual individuals. However, compared to MSM who disclosed to 'none' or 'some' friends and family, MSM who disclosed to 'most or all' of their friends and family were more likely to have symptoms of depression (adjusted PR = 1.4, 95 % CI 1.2-1.7), anxiety (1.3, 1.1-1.6), and to report ART non-adherence (1.3, 1.1-1.5). In this large multicentre study of people living with HIV in the UK, non-disclosure was overall low, but higher for heterosexual individuals compared to MSM. Non-disclosure was not associated with higher prevalence of adverse health measures

Attitudes to disclosure of HIV-serostatus to new sexual partners and sexual behaviours among HIV-diagnosed gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in the UK

We assessed attitudes to disclosure to new sexual partners and association with sexual behaviours among HIV-diagnosed gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) in the UK Antiretrovirals, Sexual Transmission Risk and Attitudes (ASTRA) study in 2011-12. Among 1373 GBMSM diagnosed with HIV for ≥3 months and reporting sex in the past three months (84% on antiretroviral therapy (ART), 75% viral load (VL) ≤50c/mL), 56.3% reported higher sexual disclosure (“agree” or “tend to agree” with “I’d expect to tell a new partner I’m HIV-positive before we have sex”). GBMSM on ART with self-reported undetectable VL had lower disclosure than those on ART without self-reported undetectable VL and those not on ART. Higher sexual disclosure was associated with higher prevalence of CLS in the past three months; this was due to its association with CLS with other HIV-positive partners. Higher sexual disclosure was more common among GBMSM who had CLS with other HIV-positive partners only (72.1%) compared to those who had higher-risk CLS with HIV-serodifferent partners (55.6%), other CLS with HIV-serodifferent partners (45.9%), or condom-protected sex only (47.6%). Findings suggest mutual HIV-disclosure and HIV-serosorting were occurring in this population. Knowledge of VL status may have impacted on disclosure to sexual partners

Alcohol, smoking, recreational drug use and association with virological outcomes among people living with HIV: cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses

Objectives: There is increasing evidence to suggest that people living with HIV (PLWH) have significant morbidity from alcohol, recreational drug use and cigarette smoking. Our aim was to report associations of these factors with antiretroviral therapy (ART) non-adherence, viral non-suppression and subsequent viral rebound in PLWH. / Methods: The Antiretroviral Sexual Transmission Risk and Attitudes (ASTRA) study recruited PLWH attending eight outpatient clinics in England between February 2011 and December 2012. Data included self-reported excessive drinking (estimated consumption of > 20 units of alcohol/week), alcohol dependency (CAGE score ≥ 2 with current alcohol consumption), recreational drug use (including injection drug use in the past 3 months), and smoking status. Among participants established on ART, cross-sectional associations with ART non-adherence [missing ≥2 consecutive days of ART on ≥2 occasions in the past three months] and viral-non suppression [viral load (VL) > 50 copies/mL] were assessed using logistic regression. In participants from one centre, longitudinal associations with subsequent viral rebound (first VL > 200 copies/mL) in those on ART with VL ≤ 50 copies/mL at baseline were assessed using Cox regression during a 7-year follow-up. / Results: Among 3258 PLWH, 2248 (69.0%) were men who have sex with men, 373 (11.4%) were heterosexual men, and 637 (19.6%) were women. A CAGE score ≥ 2 was found in 568 (17.6%) participants, 325 (10.1%) drank > 20 units/week, 1011 (31.5%) currently smoked, 1242 (38.1%) used recreational drugs and 74 (2.3%) reported injection drug use. In each case, prevalence was much more common among men than among women. Among 2459 people on ART who started at least 6 months previously, a CAGE score ≥ 2, drinking > 20 units per week, current smoking, injection and non-injection drug use were all associated with ART non-adherence. After adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic factors, CAGE score ≥ 2 [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.52, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09–2.13], current smoking (aOR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.10–2.17) and injection drug use (aOR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.00–4.47) were associated with viral non-suppression. During follow-up of a subset of 592 people virally suppressed at recruitment, a CAGE score ≥ 2 [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.66, 95% CI: 1.03–2.74], use of 3 or more non-injection drugs (aHR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.12–3.57) and injection drug use (aHR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.08–6.89) were associated with viral rebound. / Conclusions: Screening and treatment for alcohol, cigarette and drug use should be integrated into HIV outpatient clinics, while clinicians should be alert to the potential for poorer virological outcomes

Prospective association of social circumstance, socioeconomic, lifestyle and mental health factors with subsequent hospitalisation over 6–7 year follow up in people living with HIV

Background: Predictors of hospitalisation in people with HIV (PLHIV) in the contemporary treatment era are not well understood. / Methods: This ASTRA sub-study used clinic data linkage and record review to determine occurrence of hospitalisations among 798 PLHIV from baseline questionnaire (February to December 2011) until 1 June 2018. Associations of baseline social circumstance, socioeconomic, lifestyle, mental health, demographic and clinical factors with repeated all-cause hospitalisation from longitudinal data were investigated using Prentice-Williams-Peterson models. Associations were also assessed in 461 individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with viral load ≤50 copies/ml and CD4 count ≥500 cells/ µl. / Findings: Rate of hospitalisation was 5.8/100 person-years (95% CI: 5.1–6.5). Adjusted for age, demographic group and time with diagnosed HIV, the following social circumstance, socioeconomic, lifestyle and mental health factors predicted hospitalisation: no stable partner (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)=1.59; 95% CI=1.16–2.20 vs living with partner); having children (aHR=1.50; 1.08–2.10); non-employment (aHR=1.56; 1.07–2.27 for unemployment; aHR=2.39; 1.70–3.37 for sick/disabled vs employed); rented housing (aHR=1.72; 1.26–2.37 vs homeowner); not enough money for basic needs (aHR=1.82; 1.19–2.78 vs enough); current smoking (aHR=1.39; 1.02–1.91 vs never); recent injection-drug use (aHR=2.11; 1.30–3.43); anxiety symptoms (aHRs=1.39; 1.01–1.91, 2.06; 1.43–2.95 for mild and moderate vs none/minimal); depressive symptoms (aHRs=1.67; 1.17–2.38, 1.91; 1.30–2.78 for moderate and severe vs none/minimal); treated/untreated depression (aHRs=1.65; 1.03–2.64 for treated depression only, 1.87; 1.39–2.52 for depressive symptoms only; 1.53; 1.05–2.24; for treated depression and depressive symptoms, versus neither). Associations were broadly similar in those with controlled HIV and high CD4. / Interpretation: Social circumstance, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse lifestyle factors and poorer mental health are strong predictors of hospitalisation in PLHIV, highlighting the need for targeted interventions and care. / Funding: British HIV Association (BHIVA) Research Award (2017); SMR funded by a PhD fellowship from the Royal Free Charity