Time-Varying Skewness in Stock Returns: An Information-Based Explanation

There is evidence of regularities in the skewness of asset returns reported in the literature. The literature, however, offers no adequate explanations for these phenomena. Based on a simulation approach, we provide evidence that at least some aspects of skewness can be explained in terms of extant information-based theories in finance. Using a well-accepted model for generating asset returns, we demonstrate that when the effects of the uncertain information hypothesis and Kahneman and Tversky's prospect theory are incorporated in the return-generating process, the resulting return distributions can show negative skewness and variations of skewness with changing economic climates similar to what has been observed in empirical distributions

Rewards for Downside Risk in Asian Markets

Distributional properties of emerging market returns may impact on investor ability and willingness to diversify. Investors may also place greater weighting on downside losses, compared to upside gains. Using individual equities in a range of emerging Asian markets, we investigate the potential contribution of downside risk measures to explain asset pricing in these markets. As realized returns are used as a proxy for expected returns, we separately examine conditional returns in upturn and downturn periods, in order to successfully identify risk and return relationships. Results indicate that co-skewness and downside beta are priced by investors. Further testing confirms a separate premium for each measure, confirming that they capture different aspects of downside risk. Robustness tests indicate that, when combined with other risk measures, both retain their explanatory power. Tests also indicate that co-skewness may be the more robust measure

The cost of downside protection and the time diversification issue in South Asian stock markets

The objectives of this article are to carry out a comparative study of the costs of downside protection for investors in the stock markets of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and to investigate the time diversification issue in these markets by examining the variation of this cost as the investment horizon is extended. The cost of downside protection and time diversification effects are investigated by examining the properties of a protective put strategy and a capital protected equity participation strategy in each country's stock market over investment horizons ranging from 1 to20 years. Long-horizon investment outcomes are generated using a bootstrapping technique. Results indicate that the cost of downside protection differs from one country to another, but there is a common pattern of the cost decreasing as the investment horizon lengthens. In overall terms, the pattern of decreasing protection costs at longer investment horizons is consistent with the notion of the time diversification benefits of investment risk.

Sustainable withdrawal rates during retirement and the risks of financial ruins

The importance of sustainable spending rates by retirees has been underscored by rapid population ageing and the lacklustre performance of markets and pension funds in the post- GFC period. This suggests that financial planners and advisors should pay more attention to the estimation of risk in retirement finance modelling in their analyses and advice to clients. This paper provides some useful guidance on the application of two available techniques in this regard

An option pricing approach to the estimation of downside risk: a European cross-country study

The purpose of this paper is to undertake a comparative study of the costs of downside protection for investors in the four major European stock markets: UK, Germany, France and Italy, and to investigate the time diversification effects in these markets by examining the variation of this cost as the investment horizon is extended. The cost of downside protection and time diversification effects are investigated by examining the properties of a protective put strategy and a capital protected equity participation strategy in each country’s stock market over investment horizons ranging from 1 to 20 years. Long-horizon investment outcomes are generated using a bootstrapping technique. Results indicate that the cost of downside protection differs from one country to another, but there is a common pattern of the cost decreasing as the investment horizon lengthens. In overall terms, the pattern of decreasing protection costs at longer investment horizons is consistent with the notion of the time diversification benefits of investment risk

Non-normality and risk in developing Asian markets

This paper examines whether additional risk factors such as the variance, skewness, and coskewness of returns offer an appropriate explanation of company returns in less developed capital markets. Arguments for considering some additional factors in pricing models to better deal with such situations are presented. Using individual company returns from a range of developing Asian capital markets, empirical tests examine the importance of these extra risk factors. Results indicate that both individually and when in combination, variance and coskewness are significantly related to returns in these markets. Skewness is less consistently important. Robustness tests confirm that these measures tend not to capture size or book to market factors