Application of multilayer perceptron with backpropagation algorithm and regression analysis for long-term forecast of electricity demand: A comparison

Having an accurate forecast of future electricity usage is vital for utility companies to be able to provide adequate power supply to meet the demand. Two methods have been implemented to perform forecasting of electricity demand, namely, regression analysis (RA) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). We aim to compare these two methods in this paper using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to measure the forecasting performance. The results show that ANNs are more effective than RA in long-term forecast. In addition to that, from our investigation into the effects of the inclusion of economic and social factors, such as population and gross domestic product (GDP), into the forecast, we conclude that the inclusion of economic and social factors do not improve the accuracy of the forecast of the chosen ANN model for electricity demand

Automatic Road Network Recognition and Extraction for Urban Planning

The uses of road map in daily activities are numerous but it is a hassle to construct and update a road map whenever there are changes. In Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, research on Automatic Road Extraction (ARE) was explored to solve the difficulties in updating road map. The research started with using Satellite Image (SI), or in short, the ARE-SI project. A Hybrid Simple Colour Space Segmentation & Edge Detection (Hybrid SCSS-EDGE) algorithm was developed to extract roads automatically from satellite-taken images. In order to extract the road network accurately, the satellite image must be analyzed prior to the extraction process. The characteristics of these elements are analyzed and consequently the relationships among them are determined. In this study, the road regions are extracted based on colour space elements and edge details of roads. Besides, edge detection method is applied to further filter out the non-road regions. The extracted road regions are validated by using a segmentation method. These results are valuable for building road map and detecting the changes of the existing road database. The proposed Hybrid Simple Colour Space Segmentation and Edge Detection (Hybrid SCSS-EDGE) algorithm can perform the tasks fully automatic, where the user only needs to input a high-resolution satellite image and wait for the result. Moreover, this system can work on complex road network and generate the extraction result in seconds

Study of self-alignment of μBGA packages

In this paper, a detailed study of the self-alignment of BGA packages is presented. Complete self-alignment can be achieved even for a misalignment of the package of larger than 50% off the test board pad centres. A small residual displacement of the package from perfect alignment after reflow is observed. The reason for this displacement is the action of gas flow viscous drag on the package during reflow. The use of eutectic SnPb solder paste slightly reduces self-aligning ability, due to the increase in the solder volume, which reduces the restoring force. Exposure of the solder paste to a 25 C and 85% RH humidity environment also has a detrimental effect on the self-alignment of the BGA package, due to solvent evaporation and moisture absorption in the paste causing solderability degradation. The self-alignment of the package is also affected when there is slow spreading of molten solder on the pad surface. This is attributed to the reduction of restoring force due to the decrease in effective wetting surface area of the board pad

Oseltamivir- and Amantadine-Resistant Influenza Viruses A (H1N1)

Surveillance of amantadine and oseltamivir resistance among influenza viruses was begun in Hong Kong in 2006. In 2008, while both A/Brisbane/59/2007-like and A/Hong Kong/2652/2006-like viruses (H1N1) were cocirculating, we detected amantadine and oseltamivir resistance among A/Hong Kong/2652/2006-like viruses (H1N1), caused by genetic reassortment or spontaneous mutation

Ad hoc influenza vaccination during years of significant antigenic drift in a tropical city with 2 seasonal peaks

We evaluated the acceptability of an additional ad hoc influenza vaccination among the health care professionals following seasons with significant antigenic drift. Self-administered, anonymous surveys were performed by hard copy questionnaires in public hospitals, and by an on-line platform available to all healthcare professionals, from April 1st to May 31st, 2015. A total of 1290 healthcare professionals completed the questionnaires, including doctors, nurses, and allied health professionals working in both the public and private systems. Only 31.8% of participating respondents expressed an intention to receive the additional vaccine, despite that the majority of them agreed or strongly agreed that it would bring benefit to the community (88.9%), save lives (86.7%), reduce medical expenses (76.3%), satisfy public expectation (82.8%), and increase awareness of vaccination (86.1%). However, a significant proportion expressed concern that the vaccine could disturb the normal immunization schedule (45.5%); felt uncertain what to do in the next vaccination round (66.0%); perceived that the summer peak might not occur (48.2%); and believed that the summer peak might not be of the same virus (83.5%). Furthermore, 27.8% of all respondents expected that the additional vaccination could weaken the efficacy of previous vaccinations; 51.3% was concerned about side effects; and 61.3% estimated that there would be a low uptake rate. If the supply of vaccine was limited, higher priority groups were considered to include the elderly aged ≥65 years with chronic medical conditions (89.2%), the elderly living in residential care homes (87.4%), and long-stay residents of institutions for the disabled (80.7%). The strongest factors associated with accepting the additional vaccine included immunization with influenza vaccines in the past 3 years, higher perceived risk of contracting influenza, and higher perceived severity of the disease impact. The acceptability to an additional ad hoc influenza vaccination was low among healthcare professionals. This could have a negative impact on such additional vaccination campaigns since healthcare professionals are a key driver for vaccine acceptance. The discordance in perceived risk and acceptance of vaccination regarding self versus public deserves further evaluation

Photoproduction of D∗±D^{*\pm} mesons associated with a leading neutron

The photoproduction of $D^{*\pm} (2010)$ mesons associated with a leading neutron has been observed with the ZEUS detector in $ep$ collisions at HERA using an integrated luminosity of 80 pb$^{-1}$. The neutron carries a large fraction, {$x_L>0.2$}, of the incoming proton beam energy and is detected at very small production angles, {$\theta_n<0.8$ mrad}, an indication of peripheral scattering. The $D^*$ meson is centrally produced with pseudorapidity {$|\eta| 1.9$ GeV}, which is large compared to the average transverse momentum of the neutron of 0.22 GeV. The ratio of neutron-tagged to inclusive $D^*$ production is $8.85\pm 0.93({\rm stat.})^{+0.48}_{-0.61}({\rm syst.})\%$ in the photon-proton center-of-mass energy range {$130 <W<280$ GeV}. The data suggest that the presence of a hard scale enhances the fraction of events with a leading neutron in the final state.Comment: 28 pages, 4 figures, 2 table

Observation of isolated high-E_T photons in deep inelastic scattering

First measurements of cross sections for isolated prompt photon production in deep inelastic ep scattering have been made using the ZEUS detector at the HERA electron-proton collider using an integrated luminosity of 121 pb^-1. A signal for isolated photons in the transverse energy and rapidity ranges 5 < E_T^gamma < 10 GeV and -0.7 < eta^gamma < 0.9 was observed for virtualities of the exchanged photon of Q^2 > 35 GeV^2. Cross sections are presented for inclusive prompt photons and for those accompanied by a single jet in the range E_T^jet \geq 6 GeV and -1.5 \leq eta^jet < 1.8. Calculations at order alpha^3alpha_s describe the data reasonably well.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figure

Isolated tau leptons in events with large missing transverse momentum at HERA

A search for events containing isolated tau leptons and large missing transverse momentum, not originating from the tau decay, has been performed with the ZEUS detector at the electron-proton collider HERA, using 130 pb^-1 of integrated luminosity. A search was made for isolated tracks coming from hadronic tau decays. Observables based on the internal jet structure were exploited to discriminate between tau decays and quark- or gluon-induced jets. Three tau candidates were found, while 0.40 +0.12 -0.13 were expected from Standard Model processes, such as charged current deep inelastic scattering and single W-boson production. To search for heavy-particle decays, a more restrictive selection was applied to isolate tau leptons produced together with a hadronic final state with high transverse momentum. Two candidate events survive, while 0.20 +-0.05 events are expected from Standard Model processes.Comment: 28 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables, accepted by Phys. Lett. B. Updated with minor changes to the text requested by the journal refere

Search for contact interactions, large extra dimensions and finite quark radius in ep collisions at HERA

A search for physics beyond the Standard Model has been performed with high-Q^2 neutral current deep inelastic scattering events recorded with the ZEUS detector at HERA. Two data sets, e^+ p \to e^+ X and e^- p \to e^- X, with respective integrated luminosities of 112 pb^-1 and 16 pb^-1, were analyzed. The data reach Q^2 values as high as 40000 GeV^2. No significant deviations from Standard Model predictions were observed. Limits were derived on the effective mass scale in eeqq contact interactions, the ratio of leptoquark mass to the Yukawa coupling for heavy leptoquark models and the mass scale parameter in models with large extra dimensions. The limit on the quark charge radius, in the classical form factor approximation, is 0.85 10^-16 cm.Comment: 28 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in Physics Letters