Short sales and price discovery in real estate markets

Indirect real estate (IRE) returns are often shown to lead direct real estate (DRE) returns. Apart from differences in liquidity, transaction costs, and management skills, the DRE market is also less complete than the IRE market – when negative shocks arrive, one can only short IRE (e.g. real estate stocks or REITs), but not DRE. This study investigates if short sales in the IRE market convey any information to the DRE market. Based on high-frequency (weekly) property price data in Hong Kong from 1999 to 2011, we found that short sales in the IRE market led DRE returns, even after controlling for the lagged IRE returns in a VAR model. This suggests that short sales contain private information on the real estate market that is not fully reflected in IRE returns. The spillover effect of short sales, however, weakened after the 2007 global financial crisis because increased uncertainty over the credibility of individual firms made short sales carry more firm-specific information than market-wide news.postprin

Hong Kong consensus recommendations on the management of hepatocellular carcinoma

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is particularly prevalent in Hong Kong because of the high prevalence of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection; HCC is the fourth commonest cancer in men and the seventh commonest in women, and it is the third leading cause of cancer death in Hong Kong. The full spectrum of treatment modalities for HCC is available locally; however, there is currently no local consensus document detailing how these modalities should be used. Summary: In a series of meetings held between May and October 2013, a multidisciplinary group of Hong Kong clinicians − liver surgeons, medical oncologists, clinical oncologists, hepatologists, and interventional radiologists − convened to formulate local recommendations on HCC management. These recommendations consolidate the most current evidence pertaining to HCC treatment modalities, together with the latest thinking of practicing clinicians engaged in HCC management, and give detailed guidance on how to deploy these modalities effectively for patients in various disease stages. Key messages: Distinct from other regional guidelines, these recommendations provide guidance on the use of antiviral therapy to reduce the incidence of HCC in CHB patients with cirrhosis and to reduce recurrence of CHB-related HCC.link_to_OA_fulltex

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

Background Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications. Methods We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC). Findings In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683–0·717]). Interpretation In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required. Funding British Journal of Surgery Society