Earthquake Probability Assessment for the Active Faults in Central Taiwan: A Case Study

Frequent high seismic activities occur in Taiwan due to fast plate motions. According to the historical records the most destructive earthquakes in Taiwan were caused mainly by inland active faults. The Central Geological Survey (CGS) of Taiwan has published active fault maps in Taiwan since 1998. There are 33 active faults noted in the 2012 active fault map. After the Chi-Chi earthquake, CGS launched a series of projects to investigate the details to better understand each active fault in Taiwan. This article collected this data to develop active fault parameters and referred to certain experiences from Japan and the United States to establish a methodology for earthquake probability assessment via active faults. We consider the active faults in Central Taiwan as a good example to present the earthquake probability assessment process and results. The appropriate “probability model” was used to estimate the conditional probability where M ≥ 6.5 and M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes. Our result shows that the highest earthquake probability for M ≥ 6.5 earthquake occurring in 30, 50, and 100 years in Central Taiwan is the Tachia-Changhua fault system. Conversely, the lowest earthquake probability is the Chelungpu fault. The goal of our research is to calculate the earthquake probability of the 33 active faults in Taiwan. The active fault parameters are important information that can be applied in the following seismic hazard analysis and seismic simulation

Determining the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine coverage required for indirect protection against vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage in low and middle-income countries: a protocol for a prospective observational study.

INTRODUCTION: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) prevent disease through both direct protection of vaccinated individuals and indirect protection of unvaccinated individuals by reducing nasopharyngeal (NP) carriage and transmission of vaccine-type (VT) pneumococci. While the indirect effects of PCV vaccination are well described, the PCV coverage required to achieve the indirect effects is unknown. We will investigate the relationship between PCV coverage and VT carriage among undervaccinated children using hospital-based NP pneumococcal carriage surveillance at three sites in Asia and the Pacific. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We are recruiting cases, defined as children aged 2-59 months admitted to participating hospitals with acute respiratory infection in Lao People's Democratic Republic, Mongolia and Papua New Guinea. Thirteen-valent PCV status is obtained from written records. NP swabs are collected according to standard methods, screened using lytA qPCR and serotyped by microarray. Village-level vaccination coverage, for the resident communities of the recruited cases, is determined using administrative data or community survey. Our analysis will investigate the relationship between VT carriage among undervaccinated cases (indirect effects) and vaccine coverage using generalised estimating equations. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been obtained from the relevant ethics committees at participating sites. The results are intended for publication in open-access peer-reviewed journals and will demonstrate methods suitable for low- and middle-income countries to monitor vaccine impact and inform vaccine policy makers about the PCV coverage required to achieve indirect protection

Indirect effects of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumococcal carriage in children hospitalised with acute respiratory infection despite heterogeneous vaccine coverage: an observational study in Lao People's Democratic Republic.

INTRODUCTION: Empiric data on indirect (herd) effects of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in settings with low or heterogeneous PCV coverage are limited. The indirect effects of PCV, which benefits both vaccinated and non-vaccinated individuals, are mediated by reductions in vaccine-type (VT) carriage (a prerequisite for disease). The aim of this study among hospitalised children in Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) is to determine the effectiveness of a 13-valent PCV (PCV13) against VT pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage (direct effects) and the association between village-level PCV13 coverage and VT carriage (indirect effects). METHODS: Pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage surveillance commenced in December 2013, shortly after PCV13 introduction (October 2013). We recruited and swabbed children aged 2-59 months admitted to hospital with acute respiratory infection. Pneumococci were detected using lytA quantitative real-time PCR and serotyped using microarray. PCV13 status and village-level PCV13 coverage were determined using written immunisation records. Associations between both PCV13 status and village-level PCV13 coverage and VT carriage were calculated using generalised estimating equations, controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: We enrolled 1423 participants and determined PCV13 coverage for 368 villages (269 863 children aged under 5 years). By 2017, median village-level vaccine coverage reached 37.5%, however, the IQR indicated wide variation among villages (24.1-56.4). Both receipt of PCV13 and the level of PCV13 coverage were independently associated with a reduced odds of VT carriage: adjusted PCV13 effectiveness was 38.1% (95% CI 4.1% to 60.0%; p=0.032); and for each per cent increase in PCV13 coverage, the estimated odds of VT carriage decreased by 1.1% (95% CI 0.0% to 2.2%; p=0.056). After adjustment, VT carriage decreased from 20.0% to 12.8% as PCV13 coverage increased from zero to 60% among under 5. CONCLUSIONS: Despite marked heterogeneity in PCV13 coverage, we found evidence of indirect effects in Lao PDR. Individual vaccination with PCV13 was effective against VT carriage

Potential Inundation Hazards in the Taipei Basin Induced by Reactivation of the Shanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan

The Shanchiao fault, located to the west of the Taipei Basin in northern Taiwan, is a highly active normal fault that has a left-slip component and fault length of over 40 km. We suggest that the Shanchiao fault still has the ability to induce coseismic subsidence in the Taipei Basin under present extensional regime of northern Taiwan. In order to characterize the coseismic ground deformation and assess the potential inundation hazards in Taipei Basin, we estimate surface displacements using elastic dislocation models. The largest slip is assumed to be located underneath the Kuandu area due to the observation of deepest Tertiary basement in this area. Based on the topography changes due to coseismic deformation in a potential magnitude 7 event induced by reactivation of the Shanchiao fault, a 2D inundation model was adopted to simulate several inundation scenarios, including potential flood inundation below high tide condition and under various return-period design rainfall events. The predicted inundation maps based on various return-period flood events can provide information to assess potential earthquake-induced inundation hazards

The effectiveness of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against hypoxic pneumonia in children in Lao People's Democratic Republic: An observational hospital-based test-negative study

Background Pneumococcal pneumonia is a leading cause of childhood mortality. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been shown to reduce hypoxic pneumonia in children. However, there are no studies from Asia examining the effectiveness of PCVs on hypoxic pneumonia. We describe a novel approach to determine the effectiveness of the 13-valent PCV (PCV13) against hypoxia in children admitted with pneumonia in the Lao People's Democratic Republic. Methods A prospective hospital-based, test-negative observational study of children aged up to 59 months admitted with pneumonia to a single tertiary hospital in Vientiane was undertaken over 54 months. Pneumonia was defined using the 2013 WHO definition. Hypoxia was defined as oxygen saturation <90% in room air or requiring oxygen supplementation during hospitalisation. Test-negative cases and controls were children with hypoxic and non-hypoxic pneumonia, respectively. PCV13 status was determined by written record. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated using logistic regression. Propensity score and multiple imputation analyses were used to handle confounding and missing data. Findings There were 826 children admitted with pneumonia, 285 had hypoxic pneumonia and 377 were PCV13-vaccinated. The unadjusted, propensity-score adjusted and multiple-imputation adjusted estimates of vaccine effectiveness against hypoxic pneumonia were 23% (95% confidence interval: -9, 46%; p=0•14); 37% (6, 57%; p=0•02) and 35% (7, 55%; p=0•02) respectively. Interpretation PCV13 is effective against hypoxic pneumonia in Asia, and should be prioritised for inclusion in national immunisation programs. This single hospital-based, test-negative approach can be used to assess vaccine effectiveness in other similar settings

The effectiveness of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against hypoxic pneumonia in children in Lao People's Democratic Republic: An observational hospital-based test-negative study

Background: Pneumococcal pneumonia is a leading cause of childhood mortality. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been shown to reduce hypoxic pneumonia in children. However, there are no studies from Asia examining the effectiveness of PCVs on hypoxic pneumonia. We describe a novel approach to determine the effectiveness of the 13-valent PCV (PCV13) against hypoxia in children admitted with pneumonia in the Lao People's Democratic Republic. Methods: A prospective hospital-based, test-negative observational study of children aged up to 59 months admitted with pneumonia to a single tertiary hospital in Vientiane was undertaken over 54 months. Pneumonia was defined using the 2013 WHO definition. Hypoxia was defined as oxygen saturation <90% in room air or requiring oxygen supplementation during hospitalisation. Test-negative cases and controls were children with hypoxic and non-hypoxic pneumonia, respectively. PCV13 status was determined by written record. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated using logistic regression. Propensity score and multiple imputation analyses were used to handle confounding and missing data. Findings: There were 826 children admitted with pneumonia, 285 had hypoxic pneumonia and 377 were PCV13-vaccinated. The unadjusted, propensity-score adjusted and multiple-imputation adjusted estimates of vaccine effectiveness against hypoxic pneumonia were 23% (95% confidence interval: -9, 46%; p=0•14); 37% (6, 57%; p=0•02) and 35% (7, 55%; p=0•02) respectively. Interpretation: PCV13 is effective against hypoxic pneumonia in Asia, and should be prioritised for inclusion in national immunisation programs. This single hospital-based, test-negative approach can be used to assess vaccine effectiveness in other similar settings. Funding: Funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Nasopharyngeal pneumococcal colonization density is associated with severe pneumonia in young children in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic

Background No studies have explored the association between pneumococcal nasopharyngeal density and severe pneumonia using the World Health Organization (WHO) 2013 definition. In Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), we determine the association between nasopharyngeal pneumococcal density and severe pneumonia in children. Methods A prospective observational study was undertaken at Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, from 2014 to mid-2018. Children <5 years admitted with acute respiratory infections (ARIs) were included. Clinical and demographic data were collected alongside nasopharyngeal swabs for pneumococcal quantification by lytA real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Severe pneumonia was defined using the 2013 WHO definition. For pneumococcal carriers, a logistic regression model examined the association between pneumococcal density and severe pneumonia, after adjusting for potential confounders including demographic and household factors, 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine status, respiratory syncytial virus co-detection, and preadmission antibiotics. Results Of 1268 participants with ARI, 32.3% (n = 410) had severe pneumonia and 36.9% (n = 468) had pneumococcal carriage. For pneumococcal carriers, pneumococcal density was positively associated with severe pneumonia (adjusted odds ratio, 1.4 [95% confidence interval, 1.1–1.8]; P = .020). Conclusions Among children with ARIs and pneumococcal carriage, pneumococcal carriage density was positively associated with severe pneumonia in Lao PDR. Further studies may determine if pneumococcal density is a useful marker for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine impact on childhood pneumonia