Developing An Optimal Multivariate Forecasts Model For Supply Chain Inventory Management—A Case Study Of A Taiwanese Electronic Components Distributor

By reducing the volume of inventory and the ratio of obsoleted stock, enterprises can not only lower their cost and risk in a great amount, but also increase their flexibility of capital management. Thus, inventory issues are always taken seriously in enterprises’ supply chains. In the last decades, both industries and academia have come up with multiple solutions to avoid the damage caused by market volatility and to diminish the bullwhip effect. Examples include Toyota Production System (TPS), vendor managed inventory (VMI), collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR) and so forth. However, little research has addressed the issue regarding with the optimal order amount given the forecast of customers’ demand. The issue is important because order amount is directly related with stock shortage and the inventory cost. To answer the question, this research aims to develop an optimal multivariate forecast model to determine how much and when we should order so that the inventory cost and the rate of stock shortage can be minimized. We will develop a decision support system (DSS) to implement our model. The bullwhip effect shows that if a retailer periodically updates the mean and variance of demand based on observed customer’s demand data, the variance of the orders placed by the retailer will be greater than the variance of demand. Lee et al. (2007) suggested information sharing and coordinate orders among the supply chain are solutions to alleviate the adversity of supply chain uncertainty that mentioned above, including the whiplash effect and dead stock risk. This research will develop an optimal multivariate forecasts to solve the problem. Multivariate forecasts use more than one equations if the variables, such as lead time, backlog and stock, are jointly dependent. We will compare our proposed model with exponential-smoothing forecasting model and a moving-average model to see which model is more applicable. We will also compare a correlated demand with a demand with linear trend to determine which one will be used in our optimal forecasting model. Decision Support System (DSS) can integrate analytical models responsive to the view point of a business process such as demand management. Thus, we will implement our analytical model using DSS. Even though several researchers have already developed DSS regarding with inventory management, like Achabal’s research in 2000 and Cakir’s research in 2008, few of them emphasize environmental dynamics such as demand uncertainty, significant seasonality, short product life cycle or high competitive intensity. Our model will address this issue by developing a multivariate forecasting model which considers multiple uncertainty factors. We will collect data from an electronic components distributor (ABC company). The data collection will be started at the beginning of 2016 and completed before March 2016. The data will enable us to test and refine our analytical model and make the DSS more feasible. We expect the DSS can support the ABC company to decide how much they should order and when is the best time for ordering in terms of reducing inventory. Therefore, the contribution of this research can be two-folded: first, to design a DSS that can actually help the case company to manage their orders more effectively, and, second, to find out variables that are related to inventory optimization in a dynamic environment and to develop an analytical model that is more general to be applied in other industires

Rapid identification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection by a new array format-based surface plasmon resonance method

Tubercle bacillus [TB] is one of the most important chronic infectious diseases that cause millions of deaths annually. While conventional smear microscopy and culture methods are widely used for diagnosis of TB, the former is insensitive, and the latter takes up to 6 to 8 weeks to provide a result, limiting the value of these methods in aiding diagnosis and intermediate decisions on treatment. Therefore, a rapid detection method is essential for the diagnosis, prognosis assessment, and recurrence monitoring. A new surface plasmon resonance [SPR] biosensor based on an array format, which allowed immobilizing nine TB antigens onto the sensor chip, was constructed. Simultaneous determination of multiple TB antibodies in serum had been accomplished with this array-based SPR system. The results were compared with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, a conventional immunological method. Array-based SPR showed more advantages in providing label-free and real-time detection. Additionally, the high sensitivity and specificity for the detection of TB infection showed its potential for future development of biosensor arrays for TB diagnosis

Randomized Comparative Study of the Effects of Treatment with Once-Daily, Niacin Extended-Release/Lovastatin and with Simvastatin on Lipid Profile and Fibrinolytic Parameters in Taiwan

Hyperlipidemia can be effectively treated either with niacin or HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor (statin), or a combination of both. Few reports showed the effects of the combination regimen with niacin and statin on hemostatic functions. We conducted a single-center, double-blind, double-dummy, randomized, two-arm study to assess the effects of the niacin extended-release/lovastatin therapy in a fixed-dose formulation and of simvastatin on lipid lowering and two fibrinolytic parameters, fibrinogen and d-dimer. All patients were enrolled according to NCEP-ATP III guidelines and underwent a placebo run-in period of 4 weeks before being randomized to either niacin extended-release/lovastatin tablets (500/20 mg) once daily (n = 36) or simvastatin capsule (20 mg) once daily (n = 34). After 16 weeks of treatment, both groups of patients showed significantly reduced low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and total cholesterol (LDL-C, p < 0.001 and < 0.001, respectively, p = 0.159 between the groups; TC, p < 0.001 and < 0.001, respectively, p = 0.018 between the groups). Both drugs were well tolerated. Only in the group treated with niacin extended-release/lovastatin was fibrinogen concentration significantly reduced after treatment (2.48 ± 0.65 to 1.99 ± 0.62 g/L, p = 0.008). No difference was found with d-dimer in either group. This study shows that both niacin extended-release/ lovastatin and simvastatin are effective and well-tolerated lipid-lowering drugs in Taiwanese patients with dyslipidemia. A combinational treatment with niacin extended-release/lovastatin may provide additional benefit in fibrinolysis

TNF-α Mediates Eosinophil Cationic Protein-induced Apoptosis in BEAS-2B Cells

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Eosinophilic granulocytes are important for the human immune system. Many cationic proteins with cytotoxic activities, such as eosinophil cationic protein (ECP) and eosinophil-derived neurotoxin (EDN), are released from activated eosinophils. ECP, with low RNase activity, is widely used as a biomarker for asthma. ECP inhibits cell viability and induces apoptosis to cells. However, the specific pathway underlying the mechanisms of ECP-induced cytotoxicity remains unclear. This study investigated ECP-induced apoptosis in bronchial epithelial BEAS-2B cells and elucidated the specific pathway during apoptosis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>To address the mechanisms involved in ECP-induced apoptosis in human BEAS-2B cells, investigation was carried out using chromatin condensation, cleavage of poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP), sub-G1 distribution in cell cycle, annexin V labeling, and general or specific caspase inhibitors. Caspase-8-dependent apoptosis was demonstrated by cleavage of caspase-8 after recombinant ECP treatment, accompanied with elevated level of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α). Moreover, ECP-induced apoptosis was effectively inhibited in the presence of neutralizing anti-TNF-α antibody.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In conclusion, our results have demonstrated that ECP increased TNF-α production in BEAS-2B cells and triggered apoptosis by caspase-8 activation through mitochondria-independent pathway.</p