Earthquake risk modeling for the evaluation of losses to property owners in the metropolitan area of Shiraz

Natural disasters can cause huge human and economic losses, and subsequent operation efforts in disaster relief, recovery and construction by the government, the private sector stakeholders as well as international donors can significantly drain their resources from other non-disaster related pre-planned investments. As a consequence, there is now a paradigm shift for dealing with extremes from after the event approaches to more pro-active ones, the later one including risk reduction and risk financing options. However, reliable and quantitative up-to-date estimation of the underlying risks is of outmost importance towards developing effective risk management strategies as well as risk reduction activities. This is even more so the case for countries that are highly exposed to natural hazards, such as earthquake risk in Iran. This paper focuses on earthquake risk for Shiraz, the 4th largest city in Iran located in a high seismic active hazard zone with high socio-economic and historical importance for the country. It is for the first time that such an assessment for the region is performed and therefore the results should shed some light on potential risks with a probability based setting which could guide current earthquake related policy processes in the region. A catastrophe modeling approach is adopted to assess risk and a detailed analysis of potential economic losses as well as vulnerability assessments for assets within district 1 is performed. Via combining the hazard, exposure and vulnerability an Exceedance Probability (EP) curve for assets as well as human losses are constructed. The EP curve represents a powerful tool for the assessment of feasible risk reduction strategies as well as cost-benefit analysis for these strategies. An approach is suggested how this could be achieved within an integrative framework

Risk management strategies for managing natural disaster risks: A case study in Shiraz City, Iran

Almost all parts of Iran are seismic hazard prone areas and due to the low quality of constructions as well the increase of exposure in urban areas, recent earthquake events caused unacceptable huge losses, both in human and economic terms. To assess the resilience of various risk bearers, including the government as well as private sector entities, the resources to cope with potential future events as well as possible interdependencies during the occurrence have to be analyzed in detail. Furthermore, to pro-actively act against possible future extremes with risk hedging instruments such as insurance, the underlying risk has to be determined in quantitative manner. This paper suggest how to combine both, the coping dimension as well as the risk dimension, to determine possible risk management strategies which may be feasible in the Iranian context. The focus is specifically on risk instruments, such as insurance, for the Shiraz region in Iran, where the newly produced probabilistic loss estimates are available which are subsequently used to analyze possible insurance schemes and for determining corresponding premium payments as well as affordability. The paper discusses how such risk instruments can be embedded within an integrated framework and which additional options, such as risk reduction or risk pooling, would be beneficial to lower premiums to affordable levels

Nanostructure of cellulose microfibrils in spruce wood

The structure of cellulose microfibrils in wood is not known in detail, despite the abundance of cellulose in woody biomass and its importance for biology, energy, and engineering. The structure of the microfibrils of spruce wood cellulose was investigated using a range of spectroscopic methods coupled to small-angle neutron and wide-angle X-ray scattering. The scattering data were consistent with 24-chain microfibrils and favored a “rectangular” model with both hydrophobic and hydrophilic surfaces exposed. Disorder in chain packing and hydrogen bonding was shown to increase outwards from the microfibril center. The extent of disorder blurred the distinction between the I alpha and I beta allomorphs. Chains at the surface were distinct in conformation, with high levels of conformational disorder at C-6, less intramolecular hydrogen bonding and more outward-directed hydrogen bonding. Axial disorder could be explained in terms of twisting of the microfibrils, with implications for their biosynthesis

Effect of modafinil administration on the level of consciousness in patients with brain injuries of moderate severity

Background: With regards to the importance of traumatic brain injury (TBI) and its high incidence rate in Iran as well as its severe consequences, it is important to determine the safety and efficiency of modafinil to increase the level of consciousness in hospitalized TBI patients. Methods: This double-blind randomized controlled trial was done during 2016. Sixty patients with TBI and moderate GCS score between 9 and 13 had the inclusion criteria and entered the study and were divided into two groups. Patients in the treatment group received 200 mg of modafinil once a day and the control group received the placebo. Overall, 24 hours after admission, defined as base day, modafinil was prescribed for 196 hours after admission and GCS scores were recorded: this period was defined as the last day. Level of consciousness in both treatment and control groups was assessed by the GCS score. Data were analyzed by SPSS version 21 software using the independent t-test with intention-to-treat approach. Results: Among 60 patients, there were 34 (56.66) males and 26 (43) females; 45 (75) survived. The ITT analysis was employed to assess changes in the level of consciousness (LOC) after prescribing modafinil and placebo. Based on the findings, modafinil prescription was not associated with significant differences in LoC in the first time period (24 hours after) and the last day (196 hours) (P > 0.05). Conclusions: Prescribing modafinil was not associated with significant changes in LoC in comparison with the placebo. Copyright © 2018, Author(s)

Caracterização morfológica de nanocristais de celulose por microscopia de força atômica

RESUMO O isolamento de nanocristais de celulose (CNCs) de fibras vegetais é uma alternativa promissora para sua aplicação como reforço em matrizes poliméricas. A caracterização dos CNCs é fundamental para a confiabilidade da técnica, além de determinar as aplicações possíveis a partir de cada tipo de fibra. A partir da técnica de microscopia de força atômica, um estudo da morfologia e distribuição dos CNCs de semente de manga, vagem de algaroba, pseudocaule da bananeira e fibra do mesocarpo de dendê foi realizado neste trabalho. Os CNCs foram obtidos via reação hidrolítica com ácido sulfúrico em concentrações que variaram de acordo com a fonte da fibra. Os resultados obtidos revelaram dimensões variando de 300 a 500 nm em comprimento e 4 a 16 nm em diâmetro. A apresentação morfológica em forma de agulha demonstrou que o isolamento das fibras de celulose em CNCs foi efetiva. A razão de aspecto associada à formação cilíndrica em agulha dos CNCs isolados evidenciou o alto potencial das fontes de dendê e de vagem de algaroba para o reforço de bionanocompósitos

Mineral Analysis the Infusion of Black Tea Samples by Atomic Absorption Spectrometry

Tea infusion is one of the most popular drinks around the world. Since tea infusion is known to contain several essential nutrients, it is considered a healthy beverage. In this study eight different Iranian brands of tea infusion and eleven brands imported tea infusion samples from another country for Cu, Zn, Mn and Al were determined by flame atomic absorption spectrometry after wet digestion. The results of analysis showed that the extraction rates of minerals from dry black tea to infusion tea were for Mn (19.35%), Cu (22.75%), Zn (54.43%) and Al (61.48%). The results obtained from this analysis have shown good accuracy

Consequences of financial vulnerability and insurance loading for the affordability of earthquake insurance systems: evidence from Iran

Many governments provide financial assistance for reconstruction of damaged housing units after a disaster in order to prevent vulnerable households from falling into poverty traps or entering low growth cycles. To lessen these risks and the overall financial burden on the public sector after extreme events, private insurance schemes provide one viable solution. In this paper, the possible effects of such solutions are assessed for District 1 of Shiraz, Iran, based on recent probabilistic earthquake risk modelling. The work explicitly focuses on the financial vulnerability of different household groups as well as possible increases in premiums due to uncertainties in the underlying risk model through the use of loading factors. The results are compared with current non-probabilistic-based premiums that are used by most insurance companies in Iran, and recommendations are given as to which schemes may fit best or could be affordable for society to manage future earthquake risks

Patient anatomy predicts operative time in robotic totally endoscopic coronary artery bypass surgery

Abstract OBJECTIVES: The influence of patient thoracic anatomy on operative times in robotic total endoscopic coronary artery bypass (TECAB) has not been well described. The aim of this study was to determine whether patient anatomy correlates with intraoperative time required to complete various procedural steps and overall operative time in TECAB. METHODS: Preoperative multislice computed tomographic scans of the chest from 107 consecutive patients who underwent single-vessel TECAB were reviewed to measure a series of thoracic dimensions and relations. Measurements were correlated with time to complete various intraoperative procedural tasks as well as overall operative time. RESULTS: There was a significant correlation between left internal mammary artery (LIMA) harvest time and depth of subcutaneous tissue at the level of the nipple (r = 0.24, P = 0.018). Pericardial fat pad thickness was associated with longer resection times (r = 0.266, P = 0.008). LIMA to left anterior descending artery anastomotic time was inversely correlated with the distance from the left heart border to the chest wall (r = −0.241, P = 0.016). Total operative time was also inversely correlated with this distance (r = −0.275, P = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Anatomical measurements made on preoperative computed tomography in patients undergoing robotic TECAB can predict time requirements for various procedural steps. A shorter distance between the chest wall and the heart predicts longer anastomotic and total operative times. This information could assist the TECAB surgeon with surgical planning and help guide the TECAB trainee in patient selection