Explaining budgetary indiscipline: evidence from spanish municipalities

The quest for political support drives to upward deviations from forecasted public deficits when i) budget procedures are soft, ii) breaking promises involving higher expenditures and lower taxes is costly in political terms, and iii) ex–post control by voters and political opposition is imperfect. This hypothesis is tested using data from Spanish municipalities during the period 1985-1995. Econometric estimates show that single-party majority incumbents are less prone to change forecasted budgets. While their forecasted deficits tend to be higher, they have lower actual deficits, which may be interpreted as the consequence of a higher consistency in the budgetary process. Secondly, upward deviations in deficit tend to rise in election years. While forecasted deficits are not different in election years, actual deficits are. Moreover, elections cause systematic downward deviations in revenues. On the contrary, the ideology of the incumbent is not relevant to explain deviations in deficit. Key words: Budget deficits, local governments, budget procedures, electoral promises. JEL CLASIFFICATION: H74

LA DINÁMICA DE LOS GASTOS DE CAPITAL EN LAS COMUNIDADES AUTÓNOMAS: UN ANÁLISIS DE SUS DETERMINANTES

En el presente trabajo se analizan los factores determinantes de los gastos de capital de las Comunidades Autónomas (CCAA) en el período 1984-1996. Tras una descripción de los principales rasgos que definen su dinámica, procedemos a analizar la importancia relativa de las distintas fuentes de financiación y la existencia de preferencias dispares entre las CCAA sobre el reparto de fondos disponibles entre consumo e inversión pública. Classification-JEL :Gastos de capital, Haciendas Autonómicas, Financiación autonómica.

Nivelación interterritorial e ineficiencia de las decisiones presupuestarias: reflexiones para el caso español

En este trabajo se estudian los efectos negativos de los esquemas de nivelación horizontal sobre la eficiencia en las elecciones fiscales de los gobiernos regionales. Partiendo de unos resultados teóricos básicos, se examinan los aspectos dinámicos del problema, se ofrece alguna evidencia empírica para el caso español y se presenta una solución que combina los criterios de eficiencia y equidad. La conclusión principal es que la incidencia de los desincentivos se puede reducir de forma significativa, sin renunciar a un nivel de equidad elevado. Desde este punto de vista, se analiza la última reforma del sistema de financiación de las Comunidades Autónomas y se alude a la discusión teórica sobre los mejores indicadores de capacidad fiscal de una región y sus implicaciones para el caso español. Classification-JEL : H73, H77.nivelación horizontal, Comunidades Autónomas, decisiones fiscales, incentivos negativos, crecimiento económico regional

Redistribución y Estabilización Macroeconómica en las Regiones Españolas: 1967-1993.

In this paper the impact of the transfers and fiscal systems on spatial redistribution and stabilization of the regional productive systems is analysed. With data for the Autonomous Communities and the period 1967-1993, I verify that first-type effects are very important. On the other hand, the relevance of second-type effects is not the same for all instruments. Classification-JEL :Redistribution, macroeconomic stabilization, fiscal imbalance, spanish regional economies.

Convergence and public investment: Regional policies revisited

The aim of this paper is to add new arguments to the debate on the redesign of regional policies. An endogenous growth model is presented with two regions where the crucial issue for the removal of regional disparities is public investment. When testing the model using data obtained from Spanish regions, evidence of convergence is not found, in spite of the redistribution pattern of regional allocation of public investment during the 80's and 90's and a high degree of private capital mobility. After analyzing other factors potentially affecting regional convergence, a number of recommendations are supplied in order to redefine European and Spanish regional policies.Infrastructures, convergence, growth

An analysis of COFOG expenditures in former Yugoslavian countries

In this paper, we carry out an in-depth analysis of public expenditure in all former Yugoslavian countries. Our purpose is threefold: first, to verify the existence of common patterns of spending; second, to investigate the cyclicality hypothesis of fiscal policy in non-OECD countries; and third, to analyse both political and economic determinants of expenditure composition. Our results show a weak convergence in structures, the countercyclical behaviour of public expenditures, and the influence of electoral cycles, business cycles, and the degree of nationalization of party systems on the composition of public expenditure

Fiscal policy in former Yugoslavian countries (2001–2014): stylised facts and budget elasticities

The aim of this paper is to analyse fiscal policy in former Yugoslavian countries over the period 2001–2014. The contribution of the paper is threefold; first, we build a homogeneous database to describe the evolution of the main fiscal aggregates in each country using an identical analytical structure. Second, we analyse the composition of national tax revenues to determine whether common patterns are still present, or if they have evolved in different ways over time. Third, we pool data to analyse and compute the elasticity of budget imbalance, taxes and expenditure to the output gap. Our results show that tax revenue composition is still similar and that the economic cycle is very relevant in explaining the dynamics of both deficit and expenditure over Gross Domestic Product, but not revenues

Tax evasion in the countries of Former Yugoslavia

U ovome radu daje se prikaz procjene utaje poreza u svim bivšim zemljama Jugoslavije za različite godine i poreze u posljednja dva desetljeća. Jedva dostupni podaci fiskalnih i nacionalnih računa omogućavaju nam samo približne procjene. Unatoč tome, koristan su doprinos postojećoj literaturi u jedinstvenom smislu, jer se utaja poreza procjenjuje po prvi put u nekim od ovih zemalja. Glavna zbirna procjena utaje poreza temelji se na podacima sive ekonomije i poreznog opterećenja. Nadalje, ovim istraživanjem pružene su specifične mjere protiv utaje pojedinih poreza koji se temelje na odstupanjima podataka iz različitih izvora. I na kraju su izvedene implikacije za mjere kontrole utaje poreza i promatranog ubiranja poreza.This article presents estimates of tax evasion in all Former Yugoslavian countries for various years and taxes during the last two decades. The scarcely available fiscal and national accounts data only allow us to provide approximate estimates. Nevertheless, they are a useful contribution to the existing literature in a unique sense since tax evasion is estimated for the very first time for some of the countries. The main aggregate assessment of tax evasion is based on data for shadow economy and tax burden. In addition, this research finding provides more specific measures of evasion for some single taxes that are based on data discrepancies from different sources. Lastly, we derive implications for the controls of tax evasion and the observed tax collection

On the determinants of local tax rates: new evidence from Spain

This paper studies the determinants of local tax rates. For the two main local taxes in Spain - the property tax and the motor vehicle tax - we test the existence of tax mimicking, yardstick competition and political trends in a sample of 2,713 municipalities. Using different spatial models, the results support the hypothesis of tax mimicking, with coefficients over 0.40. We also show the relevance of political variables such as the ideology of the incumbents and political fragmentation. The fact that incumbents with weaker political support display stronger mimicking behaviour is interpreted as evidence in favour of yardstick competition. Finally, we find incumbents mimic neighbouring municipalities ruled by the same political party, confirming the political trends hypothesis.Local taxation, tax mimicking, yardstick competition, political trends