Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The mechanistic causes of peripheral intravenous catheter failure based on a parametric computational study

Abstract Peripheral intravenous catheters (PIVCs) are the most commonly used invasive medical device, yet up to 50% fail. Many pathways to failure are mechanistic and related to fluid mechanics, thus can be investigated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Here we used CFD to investigate typical PIVC parameters (infusion rate, catheter size, insertion angle and tip position) and report the hemodynamic environment (wall shear stress (WSS), blood damage, particle residence time and venous stasis volumes) within the vein and catheter, and show the effect of each PIVC parameter on each hemodynamic measure. Catheter infusion rate has the greatest impact on our measures, with catheter orientation also playing a significant role. In some PIVC configurations WSS was 3254 times higher than the patent vein, and blood damage was 512 times greater, when compared to control conditions. Residence time is geometry-dependent and decreases exponentially with increasing insertion angle. Stasis volume decreased with increasing infusion rate and, to a lesser degree, insertion angle. Even without infusion, the presence of the catheter changes the flow field, causing low velocity recirculation at the catheter tip. This research demonstrates how several controllable factors impact important mechanisms of PIVC failure. These data, the first of their kind, suggest limiting excessive infusion rates in PIVC

Proximal false lumen thrombosis is associated with low false lumen pressure and fewer complications in type B aortic dissection

BACKGROUND Improved risk stratification is a key priority for type B aortic dissection (TBAD). Partial false lumen thrombus morphology is an emerging predictor of complications. However, partial thrombosis is poorly defined, and its evaluation in clinical studies has been inconsistent. Thus, we aimed to characterize the hemodynamic pressure in TBAD and determine how the pressure relates to the false lumen thrombus morphology and clinical events. METHODS The retrospective admission computed tomography angiograms of 69 patients with acute TBAD were used to construct three-dimensional computational models for simulation of cyclical blood flow and calculation of pressure. The patients were categorized by the false lumen thrombus morphology as minimal, extensive, proximal or distal thrombosis. Linear regression analysis was used to compare the luminal pressure difference between the true and false lumen for each morphology group. The effect of morphology classification on the incidence of acute complications within 14 days was studied using logistic regression adjusted for clinical parameters. A survival analysis for adverse aortic events at 1 year was also performed using Cox regression. RESULTS Of the 69 patients, 44 had experienced acute complications and 45 had had an adverse aortic event at 1 year. The mean ± standard deviation age was 62.6 ± 12.6 years, and 75.4% were men. Compared with the patients with minimal thrombosis, those with proximal thrombosis had a reduced false lumen pressure by 10.1 mm Hg (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.3-15.9 mm Hg; P = .001). The patients who had not experienced an acute complication had had a reduced relative false lumen pressure (-6.35 mm Hg vs -0.62 mm Hg; P = .03). Proximal thrombosis was associated with fewer acute complications (odds ratio, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.04-0.60; P = .01) and 1-year adverse aortic events (hazard ratio, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.16-0.80; P = .01). CONCLUSIONS We found that proximal false lumen thrombosis was a marker of reduced false lumen pressure. This might explain how proximal false lumen thrombosis appears to be protective of acute complications (eg, refractory hypertension or pain, aortic rupture, visceral or limb malperfusion, acute expansion) and adverse aortic events within the first year

Low Shear Stress at Baseline Predicts Expansion and Aneurysm-Related Events in Patients With Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

Background Low shear stress has been implicated in abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) expansion and clinical events. We tested the hypothesis that low shear stress in AAA at baseline is a marker of expansion rate and future aneurysm-related events. Methods Patients were imaged with computed tomography angiography (CTA) at baseline and followed up every six months >24 months with ultrasound measurements of maximum diameter. From baseline CTA, we reconstructed three dimensional models for automated computational fluid dynamics simulations and computed luminal shear stress. The primary composite endpoint was aneurysm repair and/or rupture, and the secondary endpoint was aneurysm expansion rate. Results We included 295 patients with median AAA diameter of 49mm (IQR 43-54mm) and median follow-up of 914 (IQR 670-1112) days. There were 114 (39%) aneurysm-related events, with 13 AAA ruptures and 98 repairs (one rupture was repaired). Patients with low shear stress (0.6 Pa; 29%) shear stress groups (p=0.010). This association was independent of known risk factors (adjusted HR 1.72; 95% CI [1.08, 2.73]; p=0.023). Low shear stress was also independently associated with AAA expansion rate (β=+0.28mm/y; 95% CI [0.02, 0.53]; p=0.037). Conclusions We show for the first time that low shear stress (<0.4 Pa) at baseline is associated with both AAA expansion and future aneurysm-related events. Aneurysms within the lowest tertile of shear stress, versus those with higher shear stress, were more likely to rupture or reach thresholds for elective repair. Larger prospective validation trials are needed to confirm these findings and translate them into clinical management

Design, development and preliminary assessment in a porcine model of a novel peripheral intravenous catheter aimed at reducing early failure rates

Background: Peripheral intravenous catheters (PIVCs) are the most commonly used invasive medical device, yet despite best efforts by end-users, PIVCs experience unacceptably high early failure rates. We aimed to design a new PIVC that reduces the early failure rate of in-dwelling PIVCs and we conducted preliminary tests to assess its efficacy and safety in a porcine model of intravenous access. Methods: We used computer-aided design and simulation to create a PIVC with a ramped tip geometry, which directs the infused fluid away from the vein wall; we called the design the FloRamp™. We created FloRamp prototypes (test device) and tested them against a market-leading device (BD Insyte™; control device) in a highly-controlled setting with five insertion sites per device in four pigs. We measured resistance to infusion and visual infusion phlebitis (VIP) every 6 h and terminated the experiment at 48 h. Veins were harvested for histology and seven pathological markers were assessed. Results: Computer simulations showed that the optimum FloRamp tip reduced maximum endothelial shear stress by 60%, from 12.7 Pa to 5.1 Pa, compared to a typical PIVC tip and improved the infusion dynamics of saline in the blood stream. In the animal study, we found that 2/5 of the control devices were occluded after 24 h, whereas all test devices remained patent and functional. The FloRamp created less resistance to infusion (0.73 ± 0.81 vs 0.47 ± 0.50, p = 0.06) and lower VIP scores (0.60 ± 0.93 vs 0.31 ± 0.70, p = 0.09) than the control device, although neither findings were significantly different. Histopathology revealed that 5/7 of the assessed markers were lower in veins with the FloRamp. Conclusions: Herein we report preliminary assessment of a novel PIVC design, which could be advantageous in clinical settings through decreased device occlusion and reduced early failure rates.</p

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.FindingsThe leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.InterpretationLong-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere