The timely overestimation of Spanish GDP in the great recession

The inefficient institutional design of the Euro allowed guaranteed bank liabilities to be converted into government debt, deepening the Great-Recession in Southern European countries. A recessive feedback process occurred through an increase in sovereign debt risk premiums in a cycle of global risk aversion. However, there was one fact that limited these negative effects. We refer to the overestimation of Spanish gross domestic product (GDP) in the public accounts for the period 2007–2013. We quantified the unexplained overestimation of Spain’s GDP for the period 2007–2013 using three different methodologies, which leads us to a similar conclusion: Spain’s GDP was overestimated by between 17% and 18%. We demonstrate that this overestimation allowed for significant savings in interest payments through a lower risk premium. This overestimation, unknown to investors, shows that markets are not efficient, and that information is incomplete. It is necessary to understand the role of debt under Hyman Minsky financial instability hypothesis

Thermal Perception in Mild Climate: Adaptive Thermal Models for Schools

A comprehensive assessment of indoor environmental conditions is performed on a representative sample of classrooms in schools across southern Spain (Mediterranean climate) to evaluate the thermal comfort level, thermal perception and preference, and the relationship with HVAC systems, with a comparison of seasons and personal clothing. Almost fifty classrooms were studied and around one thousand pool-surveys distributed among their occupants, aged 12 to 17. These measurements were performed during spring, autumn, and winter, considered the most representative periods of use for schools. A new proposed protocol has been developed for the collection and subsequent analysis of data, applying thermal comfort indicators and using the most frequent predictive models, rational (RTC) and adaptive (ATC), for comparison. Cooling is not provided in any of the rooms and natural ventilation is found in most of the spaces during midseasons. Despite the existence of a general heating service in almost all classrooms in the cold period, the use of mechanical ventilation is limited. Heating did not usually provide standard set-point temperatures. However, this did not lead to widespread complaints, as occupants perceive the thermal environment as neutral—varying greatly between users—and show a preference for slightly colder environments. Comparison of these thermal comfort votes and the thermal comfort indicators used showed a better fit of thermal preference over thermal sensation and more reliable results when using regional ATC indicators than the ASHRAE adaptive model. This highlights the significance of inhabitants’ actual thermal perception. These findings provide useful insight for a more accurate design of this type of building, as well as a suitable tool for the improvement of existing spaces, improving the conditions for both comfort and wellbeing in these spaces, as well as providing a better fit of energy use for actual comfort conditions

Redistributive effects of regional transfers: a conceptual framework

This paper presents a conceptual framework to analyse the redistributive impact of transfers in the context of a decentralized economy. The framework is illustrated by means of a numerical example that describes an economy with three regions and two levels of government -the central level and the regional level-. With this set up, the paper analyses a variety of transfer systems and considers its effects on redistribution using as benchmark a centralized version of this economy, in which tax capacity is unevenly distributed across the three regions and central government public expenditure is distributed across regions according to their population

Does financial VAT affect the size of the financial sector?

The influence of VAT applied to financial services on the size of the financial sector is analyzed empirically. The authors use data from 36 European Union and OECD countries for the period from 1961 to 2012. Dynamic panel data techniques are used, concretely the GMM System. An unbalanced panel is handled. The results allow the authors to support the theoretical analysis that financial VAT has no significant effect on financial sector development. Results are robust to the specifications of the dependent and target variables and to the econometric method applied

Financial VAT may improve trade openness

This paper theoretically and empirically analyzes how the taxation of financial services under VAT (‘financial VAT’) influences trade openness. The empirical analysis uses data from the OECD and 36 European Union countries for the period 1960–2019. Dynamic panel data techniques are used, concretely the GMM System, and an unbalanced panel is handled. The results corroborate that financial VAT, and in particular the ‘option-to-tax’ method applied by some countries in the European Union, are positively associated with a country’s trade openness. © 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group

The effect of double taxation treaties and territorial tax systems on foreign direct investment: evidence for Spain

The paper evaluates the effect of Double Taxation Treaties (DTTs) on Spain''s inward and outward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for the period 1993-2013. Estimates produce positive and statistically significant coefficients. However, there are some differences between the inbound and outbound samples, the type of DTT and the group of developed and developing FDI partner countries. Moreover, interpretation of results differs depending on the fixed or random effects estimation technique used. The paper also analyses the effect on FDI of the rules agreed in DTTs and applied by the investors'' residence country in order to correct international double taxation. The authors conclude that the tax saving derived from the application by Spain of the territorial system is positively related to investment from this country to abroad. However, the tax saving provided by the application by the partner countries of the territorial system does not have a significant effect on the investment of these countries into Spain

TIPS treatment in a patient with severe lower gastrointestinal bleeding with a misdiagnosis of cirrhotic portal hypertension.

Abernethy malformation is a rare abnormal embryological development of splanchnic venous system characterised by the presence of a congenital extrahepatic portosystemic shunt. We present a rare case of an adult male patient that was admitted with severe lower gastrointestinal bleeding, requiring multiple blood transfusions. The patient's medical history and the laboratory tests performed led to the misdiagnosis of a congenital Abernethy malformation. We present a rare case, discussing the reasons for the misdiagnosis and we conclude that management of clinical data and imaging are highly important to discard these types of congenital malformations that can mimic a portal hypertension condition

CO2 Concentration and Occupants’ Symptoms in Naturally Ventilated Schools in Mediterranean Climate

A large part of the school building stock in Andalusia lacks ventilation facilities, so that the air renewal of the classrooms is achieved through the building envelope (air infiltration) or the opening of windows. This research analyses the airtightness of the classrooms in Andalusia and the evolution of CO2 concentration during school hours through in situ monitoring. Pressurization and depressurization tests were performed in 42 classrooms and CO2 concentration was measured in two di erent periods, winter and midseason, to study the impact of the di erent levels of aperture of windows. About 917 students (11–17 years of age) were surveyed on symptoms and e ects on their health. The mean n50 values are about 7 h-1, whereas the average CO2 concentration values are about 1878 ppm, with 42% of the case studies displaying concentrations above 2000 ppm with windows closed

An endogenous approach to the cyclicality of R&D investment under credit constraints: Firms' cash flow matters!

This paper examines the sensitivity of firms'' R&D expenditures to being externally financial constrained to undertake innovation projects, considering that being constrained is endogenous. It focuses on devising a model that enable us to explore the combined impact of liquidity constraints, demand shocks, and credit cycle on the cyclically of R&D, controlling by the firms characteristics. The methodology proposed consists of jointly estimating three interrelated equations with mixed distributions of dependent variables. The results obtained complete and improve those of the previous research. It is found that the effect of the business cycle on the perception of external financial constraints is subject to the availability of internal funds in each firm. On the other hand, constrained firms expend in R&D halve of the unconstrained ones, and the sensitivity of firms'' R&D expending to GDP is countercyclical in firms with low cash flows and procyclical in firms with high cash flows. The R&D expending of firms is negatively associated with the aggregate leverage ratio of the non-financial sector. These results mean that business decisions, in particular R&D expending decisions, and macroeconomic variables are strongly related. A better understanding of these interrelations should help in designing macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and reduce growth volatility

Personal Income Tax Compliance at the Regional Level: The Role of Persistence, Neighborhood, and Decentralization

This article quantifies personal income tax compliance by regions for the first time in Spain and identifies the factors explaining differences in tax compliance between regions, an aspect that has scarcely been analyzed in the literature. To this end, and in addition to the dynamic and spatial components considered by Alm and Yunus, this article considers the variables included in the classical tax evasion model of Allingham and Sandmo, as well as tax morale and political-institutional variables, including those linked to the country’s fiscal decentralization. The results obtained confirm, on one hand, those reached in the very extensive literature studying tax evasion from the individual perspective (including the importance of the dynamic element) and, on the other, the relevance of the spatial component in explaining tax compliance, so that greater or lesser tax compliance is partly explained by factors such as the tax behavior of neighbors or how those neighbors are treated by the public sector