Modelling policies for urban sustainability

The objective of the EU research project PROPOLIS (Planning and Research of Policies for Land Use and Transport for Increasing Urban Sustainability) is to assess urban strategies and to demonstrate their long-term effect in European cities. To reach this goal, a comprehensive framework of methodologies including integrated land use, transport and environmental modelling as well as indicator, evaluation and presentation systems have been developed. Sustainable development is viewed as comprising the environmental, socio-cultural and economic dimension. About thirty key indicators have been defined to measure the three dimensions of sustainability, such as air pollution, consumption of natural resources, quality of open space, population exposure to air pollution and noise, equity and opportunities and economic benefits from transport and land use. Indicator values are derived from state-of-the-art urban land use and transport models. A number of additional modules, including a justice evaluation module, an economic evaluation module and a GIS-based raster module, have been developed and integrated to provide further indicator values. Both multicriteria and cost-benefit analysis methods are used to consistently evaluate the impact of the policies. The environmental and social dimensions of sustainability are measured using multicriteria analysis for the evaluation of the indicators, whereas cost-benefit analysis is used for the economic dimension. The modelling and evaluation system is currently being implemented in seven European urban agglomerations: Bilbao (Spain), Brussels (Belgium), Dortmund (Germany), Helsinki (Finland), Inverness (Scotland), Naples (Italy) and Vicenza (Italy). A large number of policies will be tested with the modelling and evaluation system in the seven urban regions. Policies to be investigated are land use policies, transport infrastructure policies, transport regulation and pricing policies and combinations of these. Besides a common policy set for all seven urban regions, city-specific local policies will be assessed as well. The first part of the paper will introduce the methodology and the modelling system developed. The second part will present first results of the policy testing and evaluation. The paper will conclude with initial conclusions on successful strategies to enhance the long-term sustainability of urban regions.

Modelling policies for urban sustainability

The objective of the EU research project PROPOLIS (Planning and Research of Policies for Land Use and Transport for Increasing Urban Sustainability) is to assess urban strategies and to demonstrate their long-term effect in European cities. To reach this goal, a comprehensive framework of methodologies including integrated land use, transport and environmental modelling as well as indicator, evaluation and presentation systems have been developed. Sustainable development is viewed as comprising the environmental, socio-cultural and economic dimension. About thirty key indicators have been defined to measure the three dimensions of sustainability, such as air pollution, consumption of natural resources, quality of open space, population exposure to air pollution and noise, equity and opportunities and economic benefits from transport and land use. Indicator values are derived from state-of-the-art urban land use and transport models. A number of additional modules, including a justice evaluation module, an economic evaluation module and a GIS-based raster module, have been developed and integrated to provide further indicator values. Both multicriteria and cost-benefit analysis methods are used to consistently evaluate the impact of the policies. The environmental and social dimensions of sustainability are measured using multicriteria analysis for the evaluation of the indicators, whereas cost-benefit analysis is used for the economic dimension. The modelling and evaluation system is currently being implemented in seven European urban agglomerations: Bilbao (Spain), Brussels (Belgium), Dortmund (Germany), Helsinki (Finland), Inverness (Scotland), Naples (Italy) and Vicenza (Italy). A large number of policies will be tested with the modelling and evaluation system in the seven urban regions. Policies to be investigated are land use policies, transport infrastructure policies, transport regulation and pricing policies and combinations of these. Besides a common policy set for all seven urban regions, city-specific local policies will be assessed as well. The first part of the paper will introduce the methodology and the modelling system developed. The second part will present first results of the policy testing and evaluation. The paper will conclude with initial conclusions on successful strategies to enhance the long-term sustainability of urban regions

Land-Use Transport Interaction: State of the Art

This paper investigates innovative approaches to the integration of land-use and transport planning in urban regions. Engineering, economic and social-science based theories and empirical studies are analyzed regarding their ability to explain the interaction between land use and transport - that land use determines traffic flows and that transport infrastructure changes land-use patterns. In addition, this paper provides an overview of the state of the art of computer models for the simulation of land use and transport. Based on these theories and models the effectiveness of policies to influence land use and transport in urban regions is assessed.Urban location theory, transportation research, land use- transport interaction, urban simulation modeling, location choice

Evaluating Urban Sustainability Using Land-Use Transport Interaction Models

The objective of the EU research project PROPOLIS (Planning and Research of Policies for Land Use and Transport for Increasing Urban Sustainability) was to assess urban strategies and to demonstrate their long-term effects in European cities. To reach this goal, a comprehensive framework of methodologies including integrated land-use, transport and environmental models as well as indicator, evaluation and presentation systems was developed. Sustainable development is viewed as comprising the environmental, socio-cultural and economic dimension. Thirty-five indicators were defined to measure the three dimensions of sustainability, such as air pollution, consumption of natural resources, quality of open space, population exposure to air pollution and noise, equity and opportunities and economic benefits from transport and land use.  Indicator values are derived from state-of-the-art urban land-use and transport models. A number of additional modules, including a justice evaluation module, an economic evaluation module and a GIS-based raster module, were developed and integrated to provide further indicator values. Both multicriteria and cost-benefit analysis methods are used to consistently evaluate the impacts of the policies. The environmental and social dimensions of sustainability are measured using multicriteria analysis for the evaluation of the indicators, whereas cost-benefit analysis is used for the economic dimension. The modelling and evaluation system was implemented in seven European urban regions: Bilbao (Spain), Brussels (Belgium), Dortmund (Germany), Helsinki (Finland), Inverness (Scotland), Naples (Italy) and Vicenza (Italy). A large number of policies were tested with the modelling and evaluation system in the seven urban regions. Policies investigated are land use policies, transport infrastructure policies, transport regulation and pricing policies and combinations of these. Besides a common set of policies examined in all seven urban regions, also city-specific local policies were assessed in each urban region.  The first part of the paper introduces the methodology and the model system developed. A particular focus is on the development of indicators describing urban sustainability derived from different indicator modules in the modelling system. The second part presents selected aggregated results of the policy testing and evaluation for Dortmund as one of the seven urban regions. The paper concludes with recommendations on how successful strategies to enhance the long-term  ustainability of urban regions should look like

European Transport Policy and Cohesion - An Assessment by CGE Analysis

This paper studies the spatial impact of two main aspects of European transport policy, namely infrastructure investments and pricing. In its "White Paper: European Transport Policy for 2010: Time to Decide" the European Commission has laid down a comprehensive programme of transport policy within the EU, aiming at increasing the efficiency of the transport industry, developing the so-called trans-European infrastructure network and bringing the prices of transport services closer to the true marginal social cost. It is an important political issue whether the policy will enhance spatial cohesion in Europe or run counter the objective of a balanced economic development in the entire area of the EU. For one thing this is because spatial development objectives are themselves prominent goals among the catalogue of objectives to be attained by transport policy. Particularly infrastructure investments which are co-financed by the structural funds, are regarded a means of regional policy supporting less favoured regions. Furthermore, transport policies motivated by efficiency or environmental reasons may have undesired regional side effects, that could generate political backlash, unless one offers some compensation. The spatial impact of the two named policies is studied with the help of a spatial computable general equilibrium model, called CGEurope. It is a static model with a large number of regions covering the whole area of the EU including the new member states, plus neighbouring countries, some of them also subdivided by regions. Regions interact by trade flows. Interregional trade is costly, with trade costs depending inter alia on the state of infrastructure and on gasoline prices and infrastructure charges. Transport policies are simulated by varying the costs of transport and quantifying the impact on the welfare of households brought about by changes in goods and factor prices. We develop a series of policy scenarios and evaluate their impact an spatial equality or inequality using a whole bundle of indicators of spatial inequality. The paper documents theses scenarios, explains the modelling framework in brief, discusses the inequality indicators to be used and maps and tabulates the main results.

Die Stadt der kurzen Wege

Der Bericht dokumentiert Ergebnisse des von der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft geförderten Forschungsprojekts 'Vergleich räumlicher Stadtstrukturen auf Sozial- und Umweltverträglichkeit'. In dem Projekt wurde ein Simulationsmodell der räumlichen Stadtentwicklung dazu verwendet, die Auswirkungen von Strategien zur Reduzierung von Energieverbrauch und CO2-Emissionen des Verkehrs in Stadtregionen abzuschätzen. Die Simulationen zeigen, daß Flächennutzungsmaßnahmen allein nur wenig zur Reduzierung der CO2-Emissionen beitragen, daß jedoch eine Kombination von Flächennutzungsmaßnahmen und Maßnahmen zur Erhöhung der Kosten der Pkw-Benutzung und zur Verbesserung der Qualität des öffentlichen Personennahverkehrs zu einer erheblichen Verringerung des Energieverbrauchs und der CO2-Emissionen des Stadtverkehrs führen - ohne unzumutbare Opfer an Mobilität, Verstärkung sozialer Disparitäten oder zusätzliche Kosten für die öffentliche Hand

Land-Use Transport Interaction

This report is a part of the results of the EU project TRANSLAND (see Berichte aus dem Institut für Raumplanung 47). The project investigated innovative approaches to the integration of land-use and transport planning in urban regions. The report presents engineering, economic and social-science based theories and empirical studies to explain the interaction between land use and transport - that land use determines traffic flows and that transport infrastructure changes land-use patterns. In addition the report provides an overview of the state of the art of computer models for the simulation of land use and transport. Based on these theories and models the effectiveness of policies to influence land use and transport in urban regions is assessed

Land-use/transport Interaction Models as Tools for Sustainability Impact Assessment of Transport Investments

Interest in the appraisal of the sustainability impacts of transport policies has grown the last few years, expressing the need for a balanced treatment of economic, environmental and social impacts. This paper represents a first step in creating a framework for Sustainability Impact Assessments; it will also review operational land-use/transport interaction models as assessment tools. An in-depth analysis of the potential impacts of land-use and transport policies, and scenarios, on the economy, society and the environment will present new challenges to land-use/transport interaction models. The first challenge is related to modelling behaviour: i.e. the model should estimate land-use, transport and accessibility impacts in a theoretically sound and consonant manner, and consistently link the full set of (long-term) land-use and (short-term) travel-behavioural responses to these policies. The second challenge is to improve methodologies to (better) include the wider (macro-)economic effects and the passive values. The third challenge is to generate more knowledge for understanding ecological and social impacts, and for the development of related indicators and methodologies to calculate them. A fourth, and final, challenge is related to the presentation and integration of the sustainability impacts, not only including the economic, ecological and social impacts, but also finding the ‘right’ balance between them. Although recent model developments facilitate a far more comprehensive analysis than is common practice today, there is certainly a need for theoretical and practical research for conducting Sustainability Impact Assessments of land use and transport policies and scenarios.&nbsp

Overview of Land Use Transport Models

The previous chapters in this Handbook have shown that spatial development, or land use, determines the need for spatial interaction, or transport, but that transport, by the accessibility it provides, also determines spatial development. However, it is difficult to empirically isolate impacts of land use on transport and vice versa because of the multitude of concurrent changes of other factors. This poses a problem if the likely impacts of integrated land-use and transport policies to reduce the demand for travel are to be predicted. There are principally three methods to predict those impacts. The first is to ask people how they would change their location and mobility behaviour if certain factors, such as land use regulations or transport costs, would change ('stated preference'). The second consists of drawing conclusions from observed decision behaviour of people under different conditions on how they would be likely to behave if these factors would change ('revealed preference'). The third method is to simulate human decision behaviour in mathematical models. All three methods have their advantages and disadvantages. Surveys can reveal also subjective factors of location and mobility decisions, however, their respondents can only make conjec-tures about how they would behave in still unknown situations, and the validity of such con