Walk on the wild side: Temporarily unstable paths and multiplicative sunspots

We propose a generalization of the rational expectations framework to allow for temporarily unstable paths. Our approach introduces multiplicative sunspot shocks and it yields drifting parameters and stochastic volatility. Then, we provide an econometric strategy to estimate this generalized model on the data. The methodology allows the data to choose between different possible alternatives: determinacy, indeterminacy, and temporary instability. We apply our methodology to US in?ation dynamics in the 1970s through the lens of a simple New Keynesian model. When temporarily unstable paths are allowed, the data unambiguously select them to explain the stag?ation period in the 1970s

Multidimensional continued fractions, dynamical renormalization and KAM theory

The disadvantage of `traditional' multidimensional continued fraction algorithms is that it is not known whether they provide simultaneous rational approximations for generic vectors. Following ideas of Dani, Lagarias and Kleinbock-Margulis we describe a simple algorithm based on the dynamics of flows on the homogeneous space SL(2,Z)\SL(2,R) (the space of lattices of covolume one) that indeed yields best possible approximations to any irrational vector. The algorithm is ideally suited for a number of dynamical applications that involve small divisor problems. We explicitely construct renormalization schemes for (a) the linearization of vector fields on tori of arbitrary dimension and (b) the construction of invariant tori for Hamiltonian systems.Comment: 51 page

Tests of Bayesian Model Selection Techniques for Gravitational Wave Astronomy

The analysis of gravitational wave data involves many model selection problems. The most important example is the detection problem of selecting between the data being consistent with instrument noise alone, or instrument noise and a gravitational wave signal. The analysis of data from ground based gravitational wave detectors is mostly conducted using classical statistics, and methods such as the Neyman-Pearson criteria are used for model selection. Future space based detectors, such as the \emph{Laser Interferometer Space Antenna} (LISA), are expected to produced rich data streams containing the signals from many millions of sources. Determining the number of sources that are resolvable, and the most appropriate description of each source poses a challenging model selection problem that may best be addressed in a Bayesian framework. An important class of LISA sources are the millions of low-mass binary systems within our own galaxy, tens of thousands of which will be detectable. Not only are the number of sources unknown, but so are the number of parameters required to model the waveforms. For example, a significant subset of the resolvable galactic binaries will exhibit orbital frequency evolution, while a smaller number will have measurable eccentricity. In the Bayesian approach to model selection one needs to compute the Bayes factor between competing models. Here we explore various methods for computing Bayes factors in the context of determining which galactic binaries have measurable frequency evolution. The methods explored include a Reverse Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm, Savage-Dickie density ratios, the Schwarz-Bayes Information Criterion (BIC), and the Laplace approximation to the model evidence. We find good agreement between all of the approaches.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figure

Non-parametric comparison of histogrammed two-dimensional data distributions using the Energy Test

When monitoring complex experiments, comparison is often made between regularly acquired histograms of data and reference histograms which represent the ideal state of the equipment. With the larger HEP experiments now ramping up, there is a need for automation of this task since the volume of comparisons could overwhelm human operators. However, the two-dimensional histogram comparison tools available in ROOT have been noted in the past to exhibit shortcomings. We discuss a newer comparison test for two-dimensional histograms, based on the Energy Test of Aslan and Zech, which provides more conclusive discrimination between histograms of data coming from different distributions than methods provided in a recent ROOT release.The Science and Technology Facilities Council, U

Instanton Corrected Non-Supersymmetric Attractors

We discuss non-supersymmetric attractors with an instanton correction in Type IIA string theory compactified on a Calabi-Yau three-fold at large volume. For a stable non-supersymmetric black hole, the attractor point must minimize the effective black hole potential. We study the supersymmetric as well as non-supersymmetric attractors for the D0-D4 system with instanton corrections. We show that in simple models, like the STU model, the flat directions of the mass matrix can be lifted by a suitable choice of the instanton parameters.Comment: Minor modifications, Corrected typos, 38 pages, 1 figur

Black Hole Entropy Function and the Attractor Mechanism in Higher Derivative Gravity

We study extremal black hole solutions in D dimensions with near horizon geometry AdS_2\times S^{D-2} in higher derivative gravity coupled to other scalar, vector and anti-symmetric tensor fields. We define an entropy function by integrating the Lagrangian density over S^{D-2} for a general AdS_2\times S^{D-2} background, taking the Legendre transform of the resulting function with respect to the parameters labelling the electric fields, and multiplying the result by a factor of 2\pi. We show that the values of the scalar fields at the horizon as well as the sizes of AdS_2 and S^{D-2} are determined by extremizing this entropy function with respect to the corresponding parameters, and the entropy of the black hole is given by the value of the entropy function at this extremum. Our analysis relies on the analysis of the equations of motion and does not directly make use of supersymmetry or specific structure of the higher derivative terms.Comment: LaTeX file, 12page

Hartle-Hawking Wave-Function for Flux Compactifications

We argue that the topological string partition function, which has been known to correspond to a wave-function, can be interpreted as an exact ``wave-function of the universe'' in the mini-superspace sector of physical superstring theory. This realizes the idea of Hartle and Hawking in the context of string theory, including all loop quantum corrections. The mini-superspace approximation is justified as an exact description of BPS quantities. Moreover this proposal leads to a conceptual explanation of the recent observation that the black hole entropy is the square of the topological string wave-function. This wave-function can be interpreted in the context of flux compactification of all spatial dimensions as providing a physical probability distribution on the moduli space of string compactification. Euclidean time is realized holographically in this setup.Comment: 37 pages, 2 figure

Efficient computation of hashes

The sequential computation of hashes at the core of many distributed storage systems and found, for example, in grid services can hinder efficiency in service quality and even pose security challenges that can only be addressed by the use of parallel hash tree modes. The main contributions of this paper are, first, the identification of several efficiency and security challenges posed by the use of sequential hash computation based on the Merkle-Damgard engine. In addition, alternatives for the parallel computation of hash trees are discussed, and a prototype for a new parallel implementation of the Keccak function, the SHA-3 winner, is introduced

Schistosoma mansoni infection impairs reproduction in mice

AIM: To study the effect of S. mansoni infection in fertility using a mouse model. BACKGROUND: - Our group is listed in the Top 10 most publishing authors in the field of schistosomiasis as a cause of infertility; - Estrogen-like molecules produced by schistosomes haematobia and mansoni induce hormonal imbalances in infected persons; - These estrogenic metabolites down-regulate Estrogen Receptor in an in vitro model; - We have identified these estrogenic metabolites as catechol-estrogens (oxidative metabolites derived from estrogens); - These catechol-estrogens were found to be associated with infertility in women infected with S. haematobium.N/