A Latent-Variable Approach to Modelling Multiple and Resurgent Meat Scares in Italy

This paper aims to measure the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) is augmented by a flexible stochastic framework which has no need for additional explanatory variables such as a media index. Italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the timevarying impact of a resurgent BSE crisis (1996 and 2000) and the 1999 Dioxin crisis. The impact of the first BSE crisis on preferences seems to be reabsorbed after a few months. The second wave of the scare at the end of 2000 had a much stronger effect on preferences and the positive shift in chicken demand continued to persist after the onset of the crisis. Empirical results show little relevance of the Dioxin crisis in terms of preference shift, whilst not excluding the more relevant price effect

Risk perception and chicken consumption in the avian flu age – a consumer behaviour study on food safety information

As the avian flu pandemic threatens Europe, consumer awareness of the ‘theoretical’ possibility of contraction of the avian flu virus through consumption of chicken saw a decline in demand at the end of 2005, with peaks between 40% - 50% in Southern European countries such as Italy whilst having little impact on demand in Northern countries like the UK. Such food scares, coupled with an increasing awareness of food safety issues by the general public, highlight the importance of evaluating the perceived risks associated with food purchasing and consumption are paramount in order to provide effective policy communication in this area

Food Scares & Consumer Behaviour: A European Perspective

In this paper a consumer food choice model based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) is extended to account for risk perception and trust. The data are from a nationally representative European survey of 2 725 respondents from five countries, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The model relates the intention to purchase chicken in an extended TPB framework, which incorporates risk perceptions, and trust in alternative sources of food safety information. This model was run for two behaviours of interest: the standard likelihood of intention to purchase and the likelihood of intention to purchase conditional on news about a salmonella incident. The model has good predictive power and shows distinct country differences. Only in the case of a food scare do risk perceptions and trust come into play. The findings suggest that the government policy priority should be on building and maintaining trust in food and health authorities, and research institutions, while food chain actors could eliminate many of the adverse consequences of a food scare if they could build public trust. Interestingly there is no relationship between socio-demographic variables and the trust placed by consumers in food safety information

Role of Trust and Risk in Consumer Food Choice: The SPARTA Model

none4This paper explores the role of trust in food safety information in determining consumer choice in relation to socio-demographic effects and other determinants. We propose a modelling framework which extends the Theory of Planned Behaviour to account for risk perception and trust and allows for country-specific effects. The model is tested on the impact of salmonella information on chicken consumption choices across five European countries, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and the UK, based on a nationally representative survey for a total of 2,725 face-to-face interviews. Results show that no relationship emerges between socio-demographics variables and the trust placed by consumer in food safety information, although country differences are relevant. The findings also suggest that the policy priority should be on building and maintaining trust in food and health authorities, and research institutions.noneMazzocchi M.; Lobb A.E.; Traill W.B.; Cavicchi A.Mazzocchi M.; Lobb A.E.; Traill W.B.; Cavicchi A

A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy

This paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. As in Morana (2000), a structural time series Almost Ideal Demand System (STS-AIDS) is embedded in a vector error correction framework to allow for dynamic effects (VEC-STS-AIDS). Italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the time-varying impact of a resurgent BSE crisis (1996 and 2000) and the 1999 Dioxin crisis. The VEC-STS-AIDS model monitors the short-run impacts and performs satisfactorily in terms of residuals diagnostics, overcoming the major problems encountered by the customary vector error correction approach