First-line support for assistance in breathing in children: statistical and health economic analysis plan for the FIRST-ABC trial

BACKGROUND: The FIRST-ABC trial comprises of two pragmatic, multicentre, parallel groups, non-inferiority randomised clinical trials designed to evaluate the clinical non-inferiority of first-line use of high flow nasal cannula (HFNC) to continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) in critically ill children who require non-invasive respiratory support (NRS). OBJECTIVES: To describe the pre-specified statistical and health economic analysis for the FIRST-ABC trial before completion of patient recruitment and data collection. METHODS: The statistical analysis plan was designed by the chief investigators and statisticians. We define the primary and secondary outcomes, summarise methods for data collection and safety monitoring, and present a detailed description of the planned statistical and health economic analysis. RESULTS: The primary clinical outcome is time to liberation from respiratory support. The primary effect estimate will be the adjusted hazard ratio, reported with a 95% confidence interval. As a sensitivity analysis, the primary analysis will be repeated using time to start weaning of NRS. Subgroup analyses will be performed to test for interactions between the effect of allocated treatment group and pre-specified baseline covariates. The health economic analysis will follow the intention-to-treat principle and report the mean (95% confidence interval) incremental costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost-effectiveness up to 6 months. All analyses will be performed separately for each of the two trials, and any results will not be combined. CONCLUSION: The FIRST-ABC trial will assess the non-inferiority of HFNC compared to CPAP in two parallel trials with shared infrastructure (step-up RCT and step-down RCT). We have developed a pre-specified statistical and health economics analysis plan for the FIRST-ABC study before trial completion to minimise analytical bias. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN ISRCTN60048867 . Registered on 19 June 2019

Subthreshold depression as a risk indicator for major depressive disorder: a systematic review of prospective studies.

Objective: In order to examine whether the incidence of major depressive disorder (MDD) is increased in subjects with subthreshold depression, or sD (clinically relevant depressive symptoms, without meeting criteria for a full-blown MDD), we conducted a review of prospective studies examining the incidence of MDD in subjects with sD. Method: A systematic literature search was conducted. For all studies, the relative risk of developing MDD was calculated, based on person-years. Results: Twenty studies (23 comparisons) were found, based on community samples, general medical patients and high-risk subjects. Most comparisons showed that subjects with sD had a consistently larger chance of developing MDD. The studies differed considerably in the definition of sD, the recency (occurrence of the last sD) and the in-/ exclusion of lifetime MDD. Conclusion: The incidence of MDD in subjects with sD is larger than in subjects without sD. Otherwise, the concept of sD is too broad to be used. In future studies, some consensus should be reached regarding the definition of sD

A re-randomisation design for clinical trials

Background: Recruitment to clinical trials is often problematic, with many trials failing to recruit to their target sample size. As a result, patient care may be based on suboptimal evidence from underpowered trials or non-randomised studies. Methods: For many conditions patients will require treatment on several occasions, for example, to treat symptoms of an underlying chronic condition (such as migraines, where treatment is required each time a new episode occurs), or until they achieve treatment success (such as fertility, where patients undergo treatment on multiple occasions until they become pregnant). We describe a re-randomisation design for these scenarios, which allows each patient to be independently randomised on multiple occasions. We discuss the circumstances in which this design can be used. Results: The re-randomisation design will give asymptotically unbiased estimates of treatment effect and correct type I error rates under the following conditions: (a) patients are only re-randomised after the follow-up period from their previous randomisation is complete; (b) randomisations for the same patient are performed independently; and (c) the treatment effect is constant across all randomisations. Provided the analysis accounts for correlation between observations from the same patient, this design will typically have higher power than a parallel group trial with an equivalent number of observations. Conclusions: If used appropriately, the re-randomisation design can increase the recruitment rate for clinical trials while still providing an unbiased estimate of treatment effect and correct type I error rates. In many situations, it can increase the power compared to a parallel group design with an equivalent number of observations

An Internet-Based Guided Self-Help Intervention for Panic Symptoms: Randomized Controlled Trial.

Background: Internet-based guided self-help is efficacious for panic disorder, but it is not known whether such treatment is effective for milder panic symptoms as well. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of Don't Panic Online, an Internet-based self-help course for mild panic symptoms, which is based on cognitive behavioral principles and includes guidance by email. Methods: A pragmatic randomized controlled trial was conducted. Participants (N=126) were recruited from the general population and randomized to either the intervention group or to a waiting-list control group. Inclusion criteria were a Panic Disorder Severity Scale-Self Report (PDSS-SR) score between 5-15 and no suicide risk. Panic symptom severity was the primary outcome measure; secondary outcome measures were anxiety and depressive symptom severity. Measurements were conducted online and took place at baseline and 12 weeks after baseline (T1). At baseline, diagnoses were obtained by telephone interviews. Results: Analyses of covariance (intention-to-treat) showed no significant differences in panic symptom reduction between groups. Completers-only analyses revealed a moderate effect size in favor of the intervention group (Cohen's d=0.73, P=.01). Only 27% of the intervention group finished lesson 4 or more (out of 6). Nonresponse at T1 was high for the total sample (42.1%). Diagnostic interviews showed that many participants suffered from comorbid depression and anxiety disorders. Conclusions: The Internet-based guided self-help course appears to be ineffective for individuals with panic symptoms. However, intervention completers did derive clinical benefits from the intervention

Sedation AND Weaning In Children (SANDWICH): protocol for a cluster randomised stepped wedge trial.

Introduction: Weaning from ventilation is a complex process involving several stages that include recognition of patient readiness to begin the weaning process; steps to reduce ventilation while optimising sedation in order not to induce distress; and removing the endotracheal tube. Delay at any stage can prolong the duration of mechanical ventilation. We developed a multi-component intervention targeted at helping clinicians to safely expedite this process and minimise the harms associated with unnecessary mechanical ventilation. Methods and analysis: This is a 20-month cluster-randomised stepped wedge clinical and cost-effectiveness trial with an internal pilot and a process evaluation. It is being conducted in 18 paediatric intensive care units in the UK to evaluate a protocol-based intervention for reducing the duration of invasive mechanical ventilation. Following an initial eight-week baseline data collection period in all sites, one site will be randomly chosen to transition to the intervention every four weeks and will start an eight-week training period after which it will continue the intervention for the remaining duration of the study. We aim to recruit approximately 10,000 patients. The primary analysis will compare data from before the training (control) with that from after the training (intervention) in each site. Full details of the analyses will be in the statistical analysis plan. Ethics and dissemination: This Protocol was reviewed and approved by NRES Committee East Midlands - Nottingham 1 Research Ethics Committee (reference: 17/EM/0301). All sites started patient recruitment on 5 February 2018 before randomisation in April 2018. Results will be disseminated in 2020. The results will be presented at national and international conferences and published in peer reviewed medical journals

Inferring transient dynamics of human populations from matrix non-normality

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record.In our increasingly unstable and unpredictable world, population dynamics rarely settle uniformly to long-term behaviour. However, projecting period-by-period through the preceding fluctuations is more data-intensive and analytically involved than evaluating at equilibrium. To efficiently model populations and best inform policy, we require pragmatic suggestions as to when it is necessary to incorporate short-term transient dynamics and their effect on eventual projected population size. To estimate this need for matrix population modelling, we adopt a linear algebraic quantity known as non-normality. Matrix non-normality is distinct from normality in the Gaussian sense, and indicates the amplificatory potential of the population projection matrix given a particular population vector. In this paper, we compare and contrast three well-regarded metrics of non-normality, which were calculated for over 1000 age-structured human population projection matrices from 42 European countries in the period 1960 to 2014. Non-normality increased over time, mirroring the indices of transient dynamics that peaked around the millennium. By standardising the matrices to focus on transient dynamics and not changes in the asymptotic growth rate, we show that the damping ratio is an uninformative predictor of whether a population is prone to transient booms or busts in its size. These analyses suggest that population ecology approaches to inferring transient dynamics have too often relied on suboptimal analytical tools focussed on an initial population vector rather than the capacity of the life cycle to amplify or dampen transient fluctuations. Finally, we introduce the engineering technique of pseudospectra analysis to population ecology, which, like matrix non-normality, provides a more complete description of the transient fluctuations than the damping ratio. Pseudospectra analysis could further support non-normality assessment to enable a greater understanding of when we might expect transient phases to impact eventual population dynamics.This work was funded by Wellcome Trust New Investigator 103780 to TE, who is also funded by NERC Fellowship NE/J018163/1. JB gratefully acknowledges the ESRC Centre for Population Change ES/K007394/1

Inhibition of TXNIP expression in vivo blocks early pathologies of diabetic retinopathy

Evidence is mounting that proinflammatory and proapoptotic thioredoxin-interacting protein (TXNIP) has a causative role in the development of diabetes. However, there are no studies investigating the role of TXNIP in diabetic retinopathy (DR). Here, we show that, in diabetic rats, TXNIP expression and hexosamine biosynthesis pathway (HBP) flux, which regulates TXNIP, are elevated in the retina and correlates well with the induction of inflammatory cyclooxygenase 2 (Cox-2) and sclerotic fibronectin (FN). We blocked the expression of TXNIP in diabetic rat retinas by: (i) inhibiting HBP flux; (ii) inducing post-transcriptional gene silencing (PTGS) for TXNIP mRNA; and (iii) performing an in vivo transcriptional gene silencing (TGS) approach for TXNIP knockdown by promoter-targeted small interfering RNAs and cell-penetrating peptides as RNA interference (RNAi) transducers. Each of these methods is efficient in downregulating TXNIP expression, resulting in blockade of its target genes, Cox-2 and FN, demonstrating that TXNIP has a causative role in aberrant gene induction in early DR. RNAi TGS of TXNIP abolishes diabetes-induced retinal gliosis and ganglion injury. Thus, TXNIP has a critical role in inflammation and retinal injury in early stages of DR. The successful employment of TXNIP TGS and amelioration of its pathological effects open the way for novel therapeutic strategies aimed to block disease onset and progression of DR

Marsh macrophyte responses to inundation anticipate impacts of sea-level rise and indicate ongoing drowning of North Carolina marshes

In situ persistence of coastal marsh habitat as sea level rises depends on whether macrophytes induce compensatory accretion of the marsh surface. Experimental planters in two North Carolina marshes served to expose two dominant macrophyte species to six different elevations spanning 0.75 m (inundation durations 0.4–99 %). Spartina alterniflora and Juncus roemerianus exhibited similar responses—with production in planters suggesting initial increases and then demonstrating subsequent steep declines with increasing inundation, conforming to a segment of the ecophysiological parabola. Projecting inundation levels experienced by macrophytes in the planters onto adjacent marsh platforms revealed that neither species occupied elevations associated with increasing production. Declining macrophyte production with rising seas reduces both bioaccumulation of roots below-ground and baffle-induced sedimentation above-ground. By occupying only descending portions of the parabola, macrophytes in central North Carolina marshes are responding to rising water levels by progressive declines in production, ultimately leading to marsh drowning

An organizing framework for informal caregiver interventions: detailing caregiving activities and caregiver and care recipient outcomes to optimize evaluation efforts

Abstract Background Caregiver interventions may help improve the quality of informal care. Yet the lack of a systematic framework specifying the targets and outcomes of caregiver interventions hampers our ability to understand what has been studied, to evaluate existing programs, and to inform the design of future programs. Our goal was to develop an organizing framework detailing the components of the caregiving activities and the caregiver and care recipient outcomes that should be affected by an intervention. In so doing, we characterize what has been measured in the published literature to date and what should be measured in future studies to enable comparisons across interventions and across time. Methods Our data set comprises 121 reports of caregiver interventions conducted in the United States and published between 2000 and 2009. We extracted information on variables that have been examined as primary and secondary outcomes. These variables were grouped into categories, which then informed the organizing framework. We calculated the frequency with which the interventions examined each framework component to identify areas about which we have the most knowledge and under-studied areas that deserve attention in future research. Results The framework stipulates that caregiver interventions seek to change caregiving activities, which in turn affect caregiver and care recipient outcomes. The most frequently assessed variables have been caregiver psychological outcomes (especially depression and burden) and care recipient physical and health care use outcomes. Conclusions Based on the organizing framework, we make three key recommendations to guide interventions and inform research and policy. First, all intervention studies should assess quality and/or quantity of caregiving activities to help understand to what extent and how well the intervention worked. Second, intervention studies should assess a broad range of caregiver and care recipient outcomes, including considering whether expanding to economic status and health care use of the caregiver can be accommodated, to ease subsequent economic evaluations of caregiving. Third, intervention studies should measure a common set of outcomes to facilitate cross-time and cross-study comparisons of effectiveness

A case–control study of selenium in nails and prostate cancer risk in British men

In view of the experimental evidence suggesting that the micronutrient selenium reduces prostate cancer risk, we investigated the association between the selenium level in fingernails, a measure of long-term selenium intake, and prostate cancer risk in a case-control study among 656 British men, conducted in 1989-1992. Nail clippings were taken at the time of recruitment and selenium concentration, measured using neutron activation techniques, was successfully assayed for 300 case-control pairs and varied six-fold among the controls (0.59 p.p.m.; interquartile range, 0.50-0.71 p.p.m.). Nail selenium concentration was not significantly associated with prostate cancer risk: men in the highest quartile of nail selenium had a slightly increased risk compared with men in the lowest quartile (OR 1.24, 95 CI, 0.73-2.10); for advanced prostate cancer, men in the highest quartile had a slightly reduced risk compared with men in the lowest quartile (OR 0.78, 95% CI, 0.27-2.25). These results suggest that selenium is not strongly associated with prostate cancer risk in British men