Directions Report

The Natural Resources Advisory Council of NSW (NRAC) has commissioned the Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) to prepare a discussion paper to synthesise the key learnings and conclusions of previous work, and identify emerging opportunities for increased urban water conservation and recycling in coastal NSW. The objective of the project is to create a Discussion Paper which explores the issues, opportunities and constraints for increased urban water conservation and recycling in coastal NSW. This will focus discussion on the steps various stakeholders can take to deliver or encourage water conservation outcomes and ensure a more sustainable water future in the urban context; and will be suitable for use in stakeholder dialogue on this significant and increasingly urgent question. The objective is to inform current discussions about urban water provision in the coastal communities of NSW and increase awareness of the options available to Government and communities up and down the coast. In order to capture the range of situations and the variety opportunities that exist, the discussion paper will specifically explore three regional case studies. This Directions Report describes progress on the project to date, and is submitted in week 3 of the project schedule. It contains an overview of the method being used to create the Discussion Paper, a draft analysis of the dimensions of the issue, a draft list of actors and influencers, and an outline of the regional focus to be taken. It also contains information about the communications objectives for the Discussion Paper and how these will be met, as well as a list of resources - key sources of information that will be used in this research. This Report also aims to inform a Workshop with the project team and NRAC staff and members planned for the 20th of July 2006. To this end various points for discussion are highlighted below

Personal and social norms for food portion sizes in lean and obese adults.

BACKGROUND: Portion size is an important component of dietary advice for weight control, but little is known about what portion sizes people consider 'normal'. This study determined the effect of body mass index (BMI), gender, dietary restraint and liking of the food on personal and social portion size norms for a range of foods and the degree of certainty over the norms. METHODS: Thirty lean (BMI 20-25 kg m(-)(2)) and 30 obese (BMI 30-35 kg m(-)(2)) men and women (aged 18-60 years) viewed 17 different portion sizes of 12 foods on a computer screen on two occasions a week apart. Participants responded 'more' or 'less' to each photograph reflecting personal portion size preference or perceived portion sizes of others. Personal and social norms for portion sizes of each food were determined using the method of constant stimuli giving a sigmoidal curve of the probability of answering 'less' over a range of portion sizes. The slope of the sigmoid at the norm gave a measure of certainty about the norm. Regression models were used to examine the effect of BMI, gender, dietary restraint and liking of the food on personal norms, social norms, the relationship between norms, and the slopes. RESULTS: Personal norms were significantly larger in the obese (P=0.026), men (P<0.001), those with lower dietary restraint (P<0.001), and those with higher liking for the food (P<0.001). Social norms were larger for women (P=0.012). The slopes at the norms were 30% shallower in the obese and in men (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: Larger personal norms for portion size among the obese, men, those with lower dietary restraint and those with higher liking for a food imply greater consumption, which may undermine weight control. Shallower slopes for norms in the obese and in men may imply less clearly defined habitual portion sizes.This study was supported by a program grant from the UK Medical Research Council (U105960389).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2015.4

Effect of reducing portion size at a compulsory meal on later energy intake, gut hormones, and appetite in overweight adults.

OBJECTIVE: Larger portion sizes (PS) are associated with greater energy intake (EI), but little evidence exists on the appetitive effects of PS reduction. This study investigated the impact of reducing breakfast PS on subsequent EI, postprandial gastrointestinal hormone responses, and appetite ratings. METHODS: In a randomized crossover design (n = 33 adults; mean BMI 29 kg/m(2) ), a compulsory breakfast was based on 25% of gender-specific estimated daily energy requirements; PS was reduced by 20% and 40%. EI was measured at an ad libitum lunch (240 min) and snack (360 min) and by weighed diet diaries until bed. Blood was sampled until lunch in 20 participants. Appetite ratings were measured using visual analogue scales. RESULTS: EI at lunch (control: 2,930 ± 203; 20% reduction: 2,853 ± 198; 40% reduction: 2,911 ± 179 kJ) and over the whole day except breakfast (control: 7,374 ± 361; 20% reduction: 7,566 ± 468; 40% reduction: 7,413 ± 417 kJ) did not differ. Postprandial PYY, GLP-1, GIP, insulin, and fullness profiles were lower and hunger, desire to eat, and prospective consumption higher following 40% reduction compared to control. Appetite ratings profiles, but not hormone concentrations, were associated with subsequent EI. CONCLUSIONS: Smaller portions at breakfast led to reductions in gastrointestinal hormone secretion but did not affect subsequent energy intake, suggesting small reductions in portion size may be a useful strategy to constrain EI

Comparison of DC Bead-irinotecan and DC Bead-topotecan drug eluting beads for use in locoregional drug delivery to treat pancreatic cancer

DC Bead is a drug delivery embolisation system that can be loaded with doxorubicin or irinotecan for the treatment of a variety of liver cancers. In this study we demonstrate that the topoisomerase I inhibitor topotecan hydrochloride can be successfully loaded into the DC Bead sulfonate-modified polyvinyl alcohol hydrogel matrix, resulting in a sustained-release drug eluting bead (DEBTOP) useful for therapeutic purposes. The in vitro drug loading capacity, elution characteristics and the effects on mechanical properties of the beads are described with reference to our previous work with irinotecan hydrochloride (DEBIRI). Results showed that drug loading was faster when the solution was agitated compared to static loading and a maximum loading of ca. 40–45 mg topotecan in 1 ml hydrated beads was achievable. Loading the drug into the beads altered the size, compressibility moduli and colour of the bead. Elution was shown to be reliant on the presence of ions to perform the necessary exchange with the electrostatically bound topotecan molecules. Topotecan was shown by MTS assay to have an IC50 for human pancreatic adenocarcinoma cells (PSN-1) of 0.22 and 0.27 lM compared to 28.1 and 19.2 lM for irinotecan at 48 and 72 h, respectively. The cytotoxic efficacy of DEBTOP on PSN-1 was compared to DEBIRI. DEPTOP loaded at 6 & 30 mg ml-1, like its free drug form, was shown to be more potent than DEBIRI of comparable doses at 24, 48 & 72 h using a slightly modified MTS assay. Using a PSN-1 mouse xenograft model, DEBIRI doses of 3.3–6.6 mg were shown to be well tolerated (even with repeat administration) and effective in reducing the tumour size. DEBTOP however, was lethal after 6 days at doses of 0.83–1.2 mg but demonstrated reasonable efficacy and tolerability (again with repeat injection possible) at 0.2–0.4 mg doses. Care must therefore be taken when selecting the dose of topotecan to be loaded into DC Bead given its greater potency and potential toxicity

Liver transplantation: Intraoperative changes in coagulation factors in 100 first transplants

Six intraoperative blood samples were obtained at intervals from each of 100 individuals undergoing their first liver transplants. The patients fell into the following diagnostic categories: postnecrotic cirrhosis 28, primary biliary cirrhosis 20, sclerosing cholangitis 19, miscellaneous diseases 14, carcinoma/neoplasia 12 and fulminant hepatitis 7. Coagulation factor values in the initial (baseline) blood samples varied by patient diagnosis. In general, all factor levels were reduced except factor VIII:C, which was increased to almost twice normal. The slight intraoperative changes in factors II, VII, IX, X, XI and XII suggested that a steady‐state relationship existed between depletion (consumption/bleeding) and repletion (transfusion, transit from extra‐ to intravascular space), even in the anhepatic state. In contrast, there were rapid and very significant falls in factor VIII and fibrinogen and a less pronounced decrease in factor V, all reaching their nadirs in early to mid‐Stage III. The cause of these coagulation changes appears to be activation of the fibrinolytic system. Copyright © 1989 American Association for the Study of Liver Disease

Predicting Swarm Equatorial Plasma Bubbles via Machine Learning and Shapley Values

In this study we present AI Prediction of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (APE), a machine learning model that can accurately predict the Ionospheric Bubble Index (IBI) on the Swarm spacecraft. IBI is a correlation (R2) between perturbations in plasma density and the magnetic field, whose source can be Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs). EPBs have been studied for a number of years, but their day-to-day variability has made predicting them a considerable challenge. We build an ensemble machine learning model to predict IBI. We use data from 2014 to 2022 at a resolution of 1s, and transform it from a time-series into a 6-dimensional space with a corresponding EPB R2 (0–1) acting as the label. APE performs well across all metrics, exhibiting a skill, association and root mean squared error score of 0.96, 0.98 and 0.08 respectively. The model performs best post-sunset, in the American/Atlantic sector, around the equinoxes, and when solar activity is high. This is promising because EPBs are most likely to occur during these periods. Shapley values reveal that F10.7 is the most important feature in driving the predictions, whereas latitude is the least. The analysis also examines the relationship between the features, which reveals new insights into EPB climatology. Finally, the selection of the features means that APE could be expanded to forecasting EPBs following additional investigations into their onset