Transfer Entropy as a Log-likelihood Ratio

Transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between joint processes, has steadily gained popularity in the analysis of complex stochastic dynamics in diverse fields, including the neurosciences, ecology, climatology and econometrics. We show that for a broad class of predictive models, the log-likelihood ratio test statistic for the null hypothesis of zero transfer entropy is a consistent estimator for the transfer entropy itself. For finite Markov chains, furthermore, no explicit model is required. In the general case, an asymptotic chi-squared distribution is established for the transfer entropy estimator. The result generalises the equivalence in the Gaussian case of transfer entropy and Granger causality, a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression, and establishes a fundamental connection between directed information transfer and causality in the Wiener-Granger sense

Conceptualizing cultures of violence and cultural change

The historiography of violence has undergone a distinct cultural turn as attention has shifted from examining violence as a clearly defined (and countable) social problem to analysing its historically defined 'social meaning'. Nevertheless, the precise nature of the relationship between 'violence' and 'culture' is still being established. How are 'cultures of violence' formed? What impact do they have on violent behaviour? How do they change? This essay examines some of the conceptual aspects of the relationship between culture and violence. It brings together empirical research into nineteenth-century England with recent research results from other European contexts to examine three aspects of the relationship between culture and violence. These are organised under the labels 'seeing violence', 'identifying the violent' and 'changing violence'. Within a particular society, narratives regarding particular kinds of behaviour shape cultural attitudes. The notion 'violence' is thus defined in relation to physically aggressive acts as well as by being connected to other kinds of attitudes and contexts. As a result, the boundaries between physical aggression which is legitimate and that which is illegitimate (and thus 'violence') are set. Once 'violence' is defined, particular cultures form ideas about who is responsible for it: reactions to violence become associated with social arrangements such as class and gender as well as to attitudes toward the self. Finally, cultures of violence make efforts to tame or eradicate illegitimate forms of physical aggression. This process is not only connected to the development of new forms of power (e.g., new policing or punishment strategies) but also to less tangible cultural influences which aim at changing the behaviour defined as violence (in particular among the social groups identified as violent). Even if successful, this three-tiered process of seeing violence, identifying the violent and changing violence continues anew, emphasising the ways that cultures of violence develop through a continuous process of reevaluation and reinvention

Noise-induced dynamics in bistable systems with delay

Noise-induced dynamics of a prototypical bistable system with delayed feedback is studied theoretically and numerically. For small noise and magnitude of the feedback, the problem is reduced to the analysis of the two-state model with transition rates depending on the earlier state of the system. In this two-state approximation, we found analytical formulae for the autocorrelation function, the power spectrum, and the linear response to a periodic perturbation. They show very good agreement with direct numerical simulations of the original Langevin equation. The power spectrum has a pronounced peak at the frequency corresponding to the inverse delay time, whose amplitude has a maximum at a certain noise level, thus demonstrating coherence resonance. The linear response to the external periodic force also has maxima at the frequencies corresponding to the inverse delay time and its harmonics.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Physical Review Letter

Precautionary Regulation in Europe and the United States: A Quantitative Comparison

Much attention has been addressed to the question of whether Europe or the United States adopts a more precautionary stance to the regulation of potential environmental, health, and safety risks. Some commentators suggest that Europe is more risk-averse and precautionary, whereas the US is seen as more risk-taking and optimistic about the prospects for new technology. Others suggest that the US is more precautionary because its regulatory process is more legalistic and adversarial, while Europe is more lax and corporatist in its regulations. The flip-flop hypothesis claims that the US was more precautionary than Europe in the 1970s and early 1980s, and that Europe has become more precautionary since then. We examine the levels and trends in regulation of environmental, health, and safety risks since 1970. Unlike previous research, which has studied only a small set of prominent cases selected non-randomly, we develop a comprehensive list of almost 3,000 risks and code the relative stringency of regulation in Europe and the US for each of 100 risks randomly selected from that list for each year from 1970 through 2004. Our results suggest that: (a) averaging over risks, there is no significant difference in relative precaution over the period, (b) weakly consistent with the flip-flop hypothesis, there is some evidence of a modest shift toward greater relative precaution of European regulation since about 1990, although (c) there is a diversity of trends across risks, of which the most common is no change in relative precaution (including cases where Europe and the US are equally precautionary and where Europe or the US has been consistently more precautionary). The overall finding is of a mixed and diverse pattern of relative transatlantic precaution over the period

A model of caregiver paediatric HIV disclosure decision-making

Many of the over 3 million HIV-positive children will only be told of their status as adolescents. Knowing one’s status may increase treatment adherence, reduce onward HIV transmission, increase trust in caregivers, and maximise available support. Yet deciding whether, what, how, and when to tell HIV-positive children about their condition, is challenging for caregivers. We systematically review HIV disclosure theories before presenting a process model of caregiver paediatric HIV disclosure decision-making. The model, consisting of both a pre-intention and a post-intention stage, integrates individual and contextual determinants. It aims to be situationally-specific, broadly applicable, and consistent with the empirical literature. Research and practice implications are discussed

Optical properties and electronic structure of MgAuSn

The optical conductivity spectrum of single-crystal MgAuSn was measured by spectroscopic ellipsometry in the energy range 1.5–5.0 eV. The spectrum has a large peak at 2.9 eV and a small shoulder around 4.3 eV. The band structure, density of states, and interband contribution to the optical conductivity were calculated with the tight-binding linear muffin-tin orbital method in the atomic-sphere approximation. The intraband contribution to the optical conductivity was added using the Drude response fitted to the experimental data. The total theoretical spectrum, including the intraband contribution, agrees well with experimental data