Can Natural Variability Explain Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Trends? New Modeling Evidence from CMIP5

The recent observed positive trends in total Antarctic sea ice extent are at odds with the expectation of melting sea ice in a warming world. More problematic yet, climate models indicate that sea ice should decrease around Antarctica in response to both increasing greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion. The resolution of this puzzle, we suggest, may lie in the large natural variability of the coupled atmosphere‒ocean‒sea‒ice system. Contrasting forced and control integrations from four state‒of‒the‒art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, we show that the observed Antarctic sea ice trend falls well within the distribution of trends arising naturally in the system, and that the forced response in the models is small compared to the natural variability. From this, we conclude that it may prove difficult to attribute the observed trends in total Antarctic sea ice to anthropogenic forcings, although some regional features might be easier to explain

The surface impacts of Arctic stratospheric ozone anomalies

In the Arctic stratosphere, total column ozone in the spring can vary, from year to year, by as much as 30%. This large interannual variability, however, is absent from many present-generation climate models, in which the prescribed seasonal cycle of stratospheric ozone includes, at best, smooth multi-decadal trends. We here investigate the extent to which interannual variability in Arctic stratospheric ozone is able to affect the surface climate of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. We do this by contrasting pairs of model integrations with positive and negative springtime ozone anomalies, using a simple yet widely used climate model. For ozone anomaly amplitudes somewhat larger than the recent observed variability, we find a significant influence on the tropospheric circulation, and the surface temperatures and precipitation patterns. More interestingly, these impacts have very clear regional patterns—they are largest over the North Atlantic sector—even though the prescribed ozone anomalies are zonally symmetric. However, confirming other studies, for ozone anomaly amplitudes within the observed range of the last three decades, our model experiments do not show statistically significant impacts at the surface

An Efficient Spectral Dynamical Core for Distributed Memory Computers

The practical question of whether the classical spectral transform method, widely used in atmospheric modeling, can be efficiently implemented on inexpensive commodity clusters is addressed. Typically, such clusters have limited cache and memory sizes. To demonstrate that these limitations can be overcome, the authors have built a spherical general circulation model dynamical core, called BOB (“Built on Beowulf”), which can solve either the shallow water equations or the atmospheric primitive equations in pressure coordinates. That BOB is targeted for computing at high resolution on modestly sized and priced commodity clusters is reflected in four areas of its design. First, the associated Legendre polynomials (ALPs) are computed “on the fly” using a stable and accurate recursion relation. Second, an identity is employed that eliminates the storage of the derivatives of the ALPs. Both of these algorithmic choices reduce the memory footprint and memory bandwidth requirements of the spectral transform. Third, a cache-blocked and unrolled Legendre transform achieves a high performance level that resists deterioration as resolution is increased. Finally, the parallel implementation of BOB is transposition-based, employing load-balanced, one-dimensional decompositions in both latitude and wavenumber. A number of standard tests is used to compare BOB's performance to two well-known codes—the Parallel Spectral Transform Shallow Water Model (PSTSWM) and the dynamical core of NCAR's Community Climate Model CCM3. Compared to PSTSWM, BOB shows better timing results, particularly at the higher resolutions where cache effects become important. BOB also shows better performance in its comparison with CCM3's dynamical core. With 16 processors, at a triangular spectral truncation of T85, it is roughly five times faster when computing the solution to the standard Held–Suarez test case, which involves 18 levels in the vertical. BOB also shows a significantly smaller memory footprint in these comparison tests

The Antarctic Atmospheric Energy Budget. Part II: The Effect of Ozone Depletion and its Projected Recovery

In this study we continue our investigation of the atmospheric energy budget of the Antarctic polar cap (the region poleward of 70°S) using integrations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model from the year 1960 to 2065. In agreement with observational data, we find that the climatological mean net top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative flux is primarily balanced by the horizontal energy flux convergence over the polar cap. On interannual timescales, changes in the net TOA radiative flux are also primarily balanced by changes in the energy flux convergence, with the variability in both terms significantly correlated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM); positive and negative correlations, respectively. On multidecadal timescales, twentieth century stratospheric ozone depletion produces a negative trend in the net TOA radiative flux due to a decrease in the absorbed solar radiation within the atmosphere-surface column. The negative trend in the net TOA radiative flux is balanced by a positive trend in energy flux convergence, primarily in austral summer. This negative (positive) trend in the net TOA radiation (energy flux convergence) occurs despite a positive trend in the SAM, suggesting that the effects of the SAM on the energy budget are overwhelmed by the direct radiative effects of ozone depletion. In the twenty-first century, ozone recovery is expected to reverse the negative trend in the net TOA radiative flux, which would then, again, be balanced by a decrease in the energy flux convergence. Therefore, over the next several decades, ozone recovery will, in all likelihood, mask the effect of GHG warming on the Antarctic energy budget

The Antarctic Atmospheric Energy Budget. Part I: Climatology and Intraseasonal-to-Interannual Variability

The authors present a new, observationally based estimate of the atmospheric energy budget for the Antarctic polar cap (the region poleward of 70°S). This energy budget is constructed using state-of-the-art reanalysis products from ECMWF [the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim)] and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes for the period 2001–10. The climatological mean Antarctic energy budget is characterized by an approximate balance between the TOA net outgoing radiation and the horizontal convergence of atmospheric energy transport, with the net surface energy flux and atmospheric energy storage generally being small in comparison. Variability in the energy budget on intraseasonal-to-interannual time scales bears a strong signature of the southern annular mode (SAM), with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) having a smaller impact. The energy budget framework is shown to be a useful alternative to the SAM for interpreting surface climate variability in the Antarctic region

Mitigation of 21st Century Antarctic Sea Ice Loss by Stratospheric Ozone Recovery

We investigate the effect of stratospheric ozone recovery on Antarctic sea ice in the next half-century, by comparing two ensembles of integrations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, from 2001 to 2065. One ensemble is performed by specifying all forcings as per the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5; the second ensemble is identical in all respects, except for the surface concentrations of ozone depleting substances, which are held fixed at year 2000 levels, thus preventing stratospheric ozone recovery. Sea ice extent declines in both ensembles, as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. However, we find that sea ice loss is ∼33% greater for the ensemble in which stratospheric ozone recovery does not take place, and that this effect is statistically significant. Our results, which confirm a previous study dealing with ozone depletion, suggest that ozone recovery will substantially mitigate Antarctic sea ice loss in the coming decades

The impact of ozone depleting substances on the circulation, temperature, and salinity of the Southern Ocean: An attribution study with CESM1(WACCM)

Observations show robust changes in the circulation, temperature, and salinity of the Southern Ocean in recent decades. To what extent these changes are related to the formation of the ozone hole in the late twentieth century is an open question. Using a comprehensive chemistry-climate Earth system model, we contrast model runs with varying and with fixed surface concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODS) from 1955 to 2005. In our model, ODS cause the majority of the summertime changes in surface wind stress which, in turn, induce a clear poleward shift of the ocean's meridional overturning circulation. In addition, more than 30% of the model changes in the temperature and salinity of the Southern Ocean are caused by ODS. These findings offer unambiguous evidence that increased concentrations of ODS in the late twentieth century are likely to have been been an important driver of changes in the Southern Ocean

Northern Hemisphere continental winter warming following the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption: reconciling models and observations

It has been suggested, and is widely believed, that the anomalous surface warming observed over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the winter following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo was, in fact, caused by that eruption, via a stratospheric pathway that involves a strengthening of the polar vortex. However, most studies that have examined multiple, state-of-the-art, coupled climate models report that, in the ensemble mean, the models do not show winter warming after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. This lack of surface warming in the multi-model mean, concomitant with a frequent lack of strengthening of the polar vortex, is often interpreted as a failure of the models to reproduce the observations. In this paper we show that this interpretation is erroneous, as averaging many simulations from different models, or from the same model, is not expected to yield surface anomalies similar to the observed ones, even if the models were highly accurate, owing to the presence of strong internal variability. We here analyze three large ensembles of state-of-the-art, coupled climate model simulations and show that, in all three, many individual ensemble members are able to produce post-Pinatubo surface warming in winter that is comparable to the observed one. This establishes that current-generation climate models are perfectly capable of reproducing the observed surface post-eruption warming. We also confirm the bulk of previous studies, and show that the surface anomaly is not statistically different from zero when averaged across ensembles of simulations, which we interpret as the simple fact that the volcanic impact on continental winter temperatures is tiny compared to internal variability. We also carefully examine the stratospheric pathway in our models and, again confirming previous work, show that any strengthening of the polar vortex caused by the Mt. Pinatubo eruption is very small (of the order of a few meters per second at best). Such minuscule anomalies of the stratospheric circulation are completely overwhelmed by the tropospheric variability at midlatitudes, which is known to be very large: this explains the lack of surface winter warming in the ensemble means. In summary, our analysis and interpretation offer compelling new evidence that the observed warming of the Northern Hemisphere continents in the winter 1991–1992 was very likely unrelated to the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption.</p