Identification and quantification of drivers of forest degradation in tropical dry forests: a case study in Western Mexico

The intensity of forest degradation is linked to landowners' decisions on management of their shifting cultivation systems. Understanding the processes involved in this land use type is therefore essential for the design of sustainable forest management practices. However, knowledge of the processes and patterns of forest transition that result from this practice is extremely limited. In this study, we used spatially-explicit binary logistic regression to study the proximate factors that relate to forest degradation by combining biophysical and socio-economic variables. Our study region is within the Ayuquila Basin, in Western Mexico, a typical fragmented tropical dry forest landscape dominated by shifting cultivation. Through a survey and semi-structured interviews with community leaders, we obtained data on the forest resources and on the uses that people make of them. Detailed forest cover maps for 2004 and 2010 were produced from high-resolution SPOT 5 data, and ancillary geographical data were used to extract spatial variables. The degree of social marginalization of each community and the ratio of forest area to population size were the main factors positively correlated with the probability of the occurrence of forest degradation. Livestock management and use of fence posts by the communities were also positively associated with forest degradation. Among biophysical factors, forest degradation is more likely to occur in flatter areas. We conclude that local drivers of forest degradation include both socioeconomic and physical variables and that both of these factors need to be addressed at the landscape level while developing measures for activities related to REDD+. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Opportunities, Constraints and Perceptions of Rural Communities Regarding Their Potential to Contribute to Forest Landscape Transitions Under REDD+: Case Studies from Mexico

In Mexico, REDD+ is being presented as a win-win policy enabling forest communities to benefit financially and diversify their income sources while preserving and increasing their forest carbon stocks through more sustainable management. Under the national programme, it is expected that forest communities will have opportunities to tailor their own approaches. However, to date there is little understanding about what opportunities and constraints exist in reality for forest communities to contribute to REDD+, and even less about how their members perceive these opportunities. We assess potential and constraints at community level and investigate perceptions about opportunities in REDD+ and strategies that communities are currently envisaging for participation, in seven communities in the Ayuquila River Basin and around the Chamela-Cuixmala Biosphere Reserve in Jalisco, and in the area surrounding the Monarch Butterfly Reserve in Michoacan. We find that there is more opportunity for reduced degradation and forest enhancement than for reduced deforestation, in all the communities; that it may be difficult to establish additionality for REDD+ activities in some communities; that the amount of forest resource per community may greatly affect the potential to participate; that the presence of people with no land rights may complicate the distribution of benefits; that communities expect REDD+ in general to follow the Payment for Environmental Services model, and that lack of information about what activities may count as REDD+ activities and what level of financial rewards may be expected mean that communities cannot at present adequately appraise whether REDD+ will be worth their while or no

Estimation of neutron-equivalent dose in organs of patients undergoing radiotherapy by the use of a novel online digital detector.

Neutron peripheral contamination in patients undergoing high-energy photon radiotherapy is considered as a risk factor for secondary cancer induction. Organ-specific neutron-equivalent dose estimation is therefore essential for a reasonable assessment of these associated risks. This work aimed to develop a method to estimate neutron-equivalent doses in multiple organs of radiotherapy patients. The method involved the convolution, at 16 reference points in an anthropomorphic phantom, of the normalized Monte Carlo neutron fluence energy spectra with the kerma and energy-dependent radiation weighting factor. This was then scaled with the total neutron fluence measured with passive detectors, at the same reference points, in order to obtain the equivalent doses in organs. The latter were correlated with the readings of a neutron digital detector located inside the treatment room during phantom irradiation. This digital detector, designed and developed by our group, integrates the thermal neutron fluence. The correlation model, applied to the digital detector readings during patient irradiation, enables the online estimation of neutron-equivalent doses in organs. The model takes into account the specific irradiation site, the field parameters (energy, field size, angle incidence, etc) and the installation (linac and bunker geometry). This method, which is suitable for routine clinical use, will help to systematically generate the dosimetric data essential for the improvement of current risk-estimation models

Role of age and comorbidities in mortality of patients with infective endocarditis

Purpose: The aim of this study was to analyse the characteristics of patients with IE in three groups of age and to assess the ability of age and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) to predict mortality. Methods: Prospective cohort study of all patients with IE included in the GAMES Spanish database between 2008 and 2015. Patients were stratified into three age groups:<65 years, 65 to 80 years, and = 80 years.The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was calculated to quantify the diagnostic accuracy of the CCI to predict mortality risk. Results: A total of 3120 patients with IE (1327 < 65 years;1291 65-80 years;502 = 80 years) were enrolled.Fever and heart failure were the most common presentations of IE, with no differences among age groups.Patients =80 years who underwent surgery were significantly lower compared with other age groups (14.3%, 65 years; 20.5%, 65-79 years; 31.3%, =80 years). In-hospital mortality was lower in the <65-year group (20.3%, <65 years;30.1%, 65-79 years;34.7%, =80 years;p < 0.001) as well as 1-year mortality (3.2%, <65 years; 5.5%, 65-80 years;7.6%, =80 years; p = 0.003).Independent predictors of mortality were age = 80 years (hazard ratio [HR]:2.78;95% confidence interval [CI]:2.32–3.34), CCI = 3 (HR:1.62; 95% CI:1.39–1.88), and non-performed surgery (HR:1.64;95% CI:11.16–1.58).When the three age groups were compared, the AUROC curve for CCI was significantly larger for patients aged <65 years(p < 0.001) for both in-hospital and 1-year mortality. Conclusion: There were no differences in the clinical presentation of IE between the groups. Age = 80 years, high comorbidity (measured by CCI), and non-performance of surgery were independent predictors of mortality in patients with IE.CCI could help to identify those patients with IE and surgical indication who present a lower risk of in-hospital and 1-year mortality after surgery, especially in the <65-year group

Role of age and comorbidities in mortality of patients with infective endocarditis

[Purpose]: The aim of this study was to analyse the characteristics of patients with IE in three groups of age and to assess the ability of age and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) to predict mortality. [Methods]: Prospective cohort study of all patients with IE included in the GAMES Spanish database between 2008 and 2015.Patients were stratified into three age groups:<65 years,65 to 80 years,and ≥ 80 years.The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was calculated to quantify the diagnostic accuracy of the CCI to predict mortality risk. [Results]: A total of 3120 patients with IE (1327 < 65 years;1291 65-80 years;502 ≥ 80 years) were enrolled.Fever and heart failure were the most common presentations of IE, with no differences among age groups.Patients ≥80 years who underwent surgery were significantly lower compared with other age groups (14.3%,65 years; 20.5%,65-79 years; 31.3%,≥80 years). In-hospital mortality was lower in the <65-year group (20.3%,<65 years;30.1%,65-79 years;34.7%,≥80 years;p < 0.001) as well as 1-year mortality (3.2%, <65 years; 5.5%, 65-80 years;7.6%,≥80 years; p = 0.003).Independent predictors of mortality were age ≥ 80 years (hazard ratio [HR]:2.78;95% confidence interval [CI]:2.32–3.34), CCI ≥ 3 (HR:1.62; 95% CI:1.39–1.88),and non-performed surgery (HR:1.64;95% CI:11.16–1.58).When the three age groups were compared,the AUROC curve for CCI was significantly larger for patients aged <65 years(p < 0.001) for both in-hospital and 1-year mortality. [Conclusion]: There were no differences in the clinical presentation of IE between the groups. Age ≥ 80 years, high comorbidity (measured by CCI),and non-performance of surgery were independent predictors of mortality in patients with IE.CCI could help to identify those patients with IE and surgical indication who present a lower risk of in-hospital and 1-year mortality after surgery, especially in the <65-year group

The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015

Efecto de la pendiente y la elevación en la biomasa forestal, su aplicación para realizar estimaciones en el paisaje

Above ground biomass concentrations at plot level response to terrain variables and the use of woody plants for estimation of greenhouse gas mitigation has led to demand for rapid and accurate estimation of forest carbon stocks. The aim of this study is to assess the extent of terrain slope and altitude to constraint biomass patterns through the landscape in a tropical dry forest and find models helps to predict them. Biomass obtained with the allometric relationship with diameter at breast height (DBH) for 163 sites in 400 m2 circular plots was obtained, using concentric circles to collect trees with different tree DBH size. Synthetic variable (SV) using ordination technique using species biomass by site as main input was obtained. Correlation and then linear models were carried out for pair of variables. Stand–level biomass, logarithm of biomass and SV were used as dependent variable and terrain slope, altitude and categories of terrain slope and altitude as independent variable. Models using log of biomass and stand–level biomass performed better and with lowest goodness and the complexity trade–off than the ones using SV. We conclude that is possible to predict forest biomass using terrain slope and altitude using terrain attributes but terrain slope has to be categorized to obtain a better fit. The model with of the model has

A Teaching Games for Understanding Programme to Deal with Reasons for Dropout in Under11 Football

©2020. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This document is the Accepted, version of a Published Work that appeared in final form in Research Quarterly for Exercise and Sport. To access the final edited and published work see https://doi.org/10.1080/02701367.2020.1759767Young players report that they dropout of organized football due to excessive emphasis on technical execution, low success, and the lack of autonomy and motivation experienced by players during training sessions. Purpose: To determine whether a TGfU intervention during a youth football program led players to improve in variables related to dropout. That means tactical-technical competence (decision-making, skill execution), success (successful game performance), autonomy (number of decisions made, player autonomy, number of game involvements, player participation), and motivation (enjoyment, intention to be physically active). Method: Twenty under-11-players and two coaches were recruited from 17 clubs. A pretestposttest design with a multi-method approach was used. Coaches were trained and mentored in TGfU. Data were collected using Game Performance Assessment Instrument, enjoyment and intention to be physically active scales, and two focus groups with the players and the coaches. Results: Players improved in decision-making, skill execution, successful game performance, number of decisions made, number of game involvements, and intention to be physically active (p < .05). Participants attributed the results to the TGfU pedagogical features emphasized during the coaches’ training and mentoring. Conclusion: Considering the reasons for dropout in football, in terms of excessive emphasis on technical execution, low success, and the lack of autonomy and motivation experienced by players, TGfU could be a useful pedagogical approach for teaching-learning organized youth football. The TGfU pedagogical features emphasized during coaches’ training and mentoring could be crucial to obtain these results due to the fact that they were the sub-themes highlighted during the focus groups