68 research outputs found
Distributed lag models for hydrological data
The distributed lag model (DLM), used most prominently in air pollution studies, finds application
wherever the effect of a covariate is delayed and distributed through time. We explore the use of modified formulations
of DLMs to provide flexible varying-coeficient models with smoothness constraints, applicable in any setting in which
lagged covariates are regressed on a time-dependent response. The models are applied to simulated flow and rainfall
data and to flow data from a Scottish mountain river, with particular emphasis on approximating the relationship
between environmental covariates and flow regimes in order to detect the influence of unobserved processes. It was
found that under certain rainfall conditions some of the variability in the influence of rainfall on flow arises through
a complex interaction between antecedent ground wetness and the time-delay in rainfall. The models are able to
identify subtle changes in rainfall response, particularly in the location of peak influence in the lag structure and offer
a computationally attractive approach for fitting DLMs
Breaks and the Statistical Process of Inflation:The Case of Estimating the ‘Modern’ Long-Run Phillips Curve*
Guns, Economic Growth and Education During the Second Half of the Twentieth Century: Was Spain Different?
Evaluating Safety Benefits of the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia Road Improvement Program Using a Full Bayes Approach
The Application of the Mega-Dimensional Cartesian Coordinate System in the Economic Policy Modeling
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