The Water Vapor Abundance in Orion KL Outflows

We present the detection and modeling of more than 70 far-IR pure rotational lines of water vapor, including the 18O and 17O isotopologues, towards Orion KL. Observations were performed with the Long Wavelength Spectrometer Fabry-Perot (LWS/FP; R~6800-9700) on board the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) between ~43 and ~197 um. The water line profiles evolve from P-Cygni type profiles (even for the H2O18 lines) to pure emission at wavelengths above ~100 um. We find that most of the water emission/absorption arises from an extended flow of gas expanding at 25+-5 kms^-1. Non-local radiative transfer models show that much of the water excitation and line profile formation is driven by the dust continuum emission. The derived beam averaged water abundance is 2-3x10^-5. The inferred gas temperature Tk=80-100 K suggests that: (i) water could have been formed in the "plateau" by gas phase neutral-neutral reactions with activation barriers if the gas was previously heated (e.g. by shocks) to >500 K and/or (ii) H2O formation in the outflow is dominated by in-situ evaporation of grain water-ice mantles and/or (iii) H2O was formed in the innermost and warmer regions (e.g. the hot core) and was swept up in ~1000 yr, the dynamical timescale of the outflow.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ letters [2006 August 7] (5 pages 2, figures, not edited

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of treatments for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: systematic review, network meta-analysis and health economic evaluation

Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a life-limiting lung disease with considerable impact on patients and carers as the disease progresses. Currently few treatments are available. We aimed to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of available treatments for IPF. Methods: Systematic reviews of clinical effectiveness, quality of life and cost effectiveness were undertaken. Eleven bibliographic databases were searched from inception to July 2013 and studies were assessed for eligibility against a set of pre-defined criteria. Two reviewers screened references, extracted data from included studies and appraised their quality. An advisory group was consulted about the choice of interventions. A narrative review was undertaken and where feasible fixed effect and random effects meta-analysis were undertaken including a network meta-analysis (NMA). A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to estimate cost-effectiveness of pharmacological treatments for IPF. Following best practice recommendations, the model perspective was of the national health service and personal social services, a discount rate of 3.5% for costs and health benefits was applied and outcomes were expressed as cost per quality adjusted life-year gained. Parameter values were obtained from the NMA and systematic reviews. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken. Results: Fourteen studies were included in the review of clinical effectiveness, of which one evaluated azathioprine, three N-acetylcysteine [NAC] (alone or in combination), four pirfenidone, one nintedanib, one sildenafil, one thalidomide, two pulmonary rehabilitation, and one a disease management programme. Study quality was generally good. Evidence suggests that some effective treatments are available. In NMA only nintedanib and pirfenidone show statistically significant improvements. The model results show increased survival for five pharmacological treatments (NAC triple therapy, inhaled NAC, nintedanib, pirfenidone, and sildenafil) compared with best supportive care, at increased cost. Only inhaled NAC was cost-effective at current willingness to pay thresholds but it may not be clinically effective. Conclusions: Few interventions have any statistically significant effect and the cost-effectiveness of treatments is uncertain. A lack of studies on palliative care approaches was identified and there is a need for further research into pulmonary rehabilitation and thalidomide in particular. A well conducted RCT on inhaled NAC therapy should also be considered

Effect of high-dose simvastatin on brain atrophy and disability in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (MS-STAT): a randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, for which no satisfactory treatment presently exists, accounts for most of the disability in patients with multiple sclerosis. Simvastatin, which is widely used for treatment of vascular disease, with its excellent safety profile, has immunomodulatory and neuroprotective properties that could make it an appealing candidate drug for patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. METHODS: We undertook a double-blind, controlled trial between Jan 28, 2008, and Nov 4, 2011, at three neuroscience centres in the UK. Patients aged 18-65 years with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis were randomly assigned (1:1), by a centralised web-based service with a block size of eight, to receive either 80 mg of simvastatin or placebo. Patients, treating physicians, and outcome assessors were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was the annualised rate of whole-brain atrophy measured from serial volumetric MRI. Analyses were by intention to treat and per protocol. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00647348. FINDINGS: 140 participants were randomly assigned to receive either simvastatin (n=70) or placebo (n=70). The mean annualised atrophy rate was significantly lower in patients in the simvastatin group (0·288% per year [SD 0·521]) than in those in the placebo group (0·584% per year [0·498]). The adjusted difference in atrophy rate between groups was -0·254% per year (95% CI -0·422 to -0·087; p=0·003); a 43% reduction in annualised rate. Simvastatin was well tolerated, with no differences between the placebo and simvastatin groups in proportions of participants who had serious adverse events (14 [20%] vs nine [13%]). INTERPRETATION: High-dose simvastatin reduced the annualised rate of whole-brain atrophy compared with placebo, and was well tolerated and safe. These results support the advancement of this treatment to phase 3 testing. FUNDING: The Moulton Foundation [charity number 1109891], Berkeley Foundation [268369], the Multiple Sclerosis Trials Collaboration [1113598], the Rosetrees Trust [298582] and a personal contribution from A Pidgley, UK National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) University College London Hospitals/UCL Biomedical Research Centres funding scheme

The impact of foreign direct investment on the productivity of China’s automotive industry

• This study contributes to the existing literature by empirically investigating the effect of FDI inflows on the aggregate labour productivity of China's automotive industry. • A production function model is developed using a panel data set at sub-sector level. Two statistical models: pooled ordinary least squares model (POLS) and fixed effects model (FES) were used to estimate the influence of foreign direct investment on aggregate labour productivity in the industry

A retrospective and agenda for future research on Chinese outward foreign direct investment

Our original paper “The determinants of Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment” was the first theoretically based empirical analysis of the phenomenon. It utilised internalisation theory to show that Chinese state-owned firms reacted to home country market imperfections to surmount barriers to foreign entry arising from naivety and the lack of obvious ownership advantages, leveraging institutional factors including favourable policy stimuli. This special theory explained outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) but provided surprises. These included the apparent appetite for risk evinced by these early investors, causing us to conjecture that domestic market imperfections, particularly in the domestic capital market, might be responsible. The article stimulated a massive subsequent, largely successful, research effort on emerging country multinationals. In this Retrospective article we review some of the main strands of research that ensued, for the insight they offer for the theme of our commentary. Our theme is that theoretical development can only come through embracing yet more challenging, different, and new contexts, and we make suggestions for future research directions

Pond research and management in Europe: "Small is Beautiful"

The phrase "Small is Beautiful" was first used by the talented scholar Leopold Kohr (1909 131994), but it becames more popular thanks to the essays of one of his students, the British economist E. F. Schumacher, and it was coined as a response to the socially established idea that "Big is Powerful". It could be argued that this desire for "bigness" explains why current legal frameworks and the conservation planning and management related to standing waters often overlook ponds, despite their well-known value in terms of biodiversity and socio-economic benefits (Oertli et al., 2004; Cereghino et al., 2008). Of course, this is only one of several possible explanations, but it is important to understand that such long-established ideas can have a lasting effect upon the efficiency of our conservation actions. Beyond this social perspective, the history of science can also provide some explanation as to why ponds have been undervalued for so long

Risk propensity in the foreign direct investment location decision of emerging multinationals

A distinguishing feature of emerging economy multinationals is their apparent tolerance for host country institutional risk. Employing behavioral decision theory and quasi-experimental data, we find that managers’ domestic experience satisfaction increases their relative risk propensity regarding controllable risk (legally protectable loss), but decreases their tendency to accept non-controllable risk (e.g., political instability). In contrast, firms’ potential slack reduces relative risk propensity regarding controllable risk, yet amplifies the tendency to take non-controllable risk. We suggest that these counterbalancing effects might help explain observation that risk-taking in FDI location decisions is influenced by firm experience and context. The study provides a new understanding of why firms exhibit heterogeneous responses to host country risks, and the varying effects of institutions

Evolution of Salmonella enterica Virulence via Point Mutations in the Fimbrial Adhesin

Whereas the majority of pathogenic Salmonella serovars are capable of infecting many different animal species, typically producing a self-limited gastroenteritis, serovars with narrow host-specificity exhibit increased virulence and their infections frequently result in fatal systemic diseases. In our study, a genetic and functional analysis of the mannose-specific type 1 fimbrial adhesin FimH from a variety of serovars of Salmonella enterica revealed that specific mutant variants of FimH are common in host-adapted (systemically invasive) serovars. We have found that while the low-binding shear-dependent phenotype of the adhesin is preserved in broad host-range (usually systemically non-invasive) Salmonella, the majority of host-adapted serovars express FimH variants with one of two alternative phenotypes: a significantly increased binding to mannose (as in S. Typhi, S. Paratyphi C, S. Dublin and some isolates of S. Choleraesuis), or complete loss of the mannose-binding activity (as in S. Paratyphi B, S. Choleraesuis and S. Gallinarum). The functional diversification of FimH in host-adapted Salmonella results from recently acquired structural mutations. Many of the mutations are of a convergent nature indicative of strong positive selection. The high-binding phenotype of FimH that leads to increased bacterial adhesiveness to and invasiveness of epithelial cells and macrophages usually precedes acquisition of the non-binding phenotype. Collectively these observations suggest that activation or inactivation of mannose-specific adhesive properties in different systemically invasive serovars of Salmonella reflects their dynamic trajectories of adaptation to a life style in specific hosts. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that point mutations are the target of positive selection and, in addition to horizontal gene transfer and genome degradation events, can contribute to the differential pathoadaptive evolution of Salmonella

Comparative Accuracy and Cost-Effectiveness of Dynamic Contrast Enhanced Computed Tomography and Positron Emission Tomography in the Characterisation of Solitary Pulmonary Nodules

Abstract Introduction: Dynamic contrast-enhanced computed tomography (DCE-CT) and Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography (PET/CT) have a high reported accuracy for the diagnosis of malignancy in solitary pulmonary nodules. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these. Methods: In this prospective multicentre trial, 380 participants with a solitary pulmonary nodule (8-30mm) and no recent history of malignancy underwent DCE-CT and PET/CT. All patients underwent either biopsy with histological diagnosis or completed CT follow-up. Primary outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity, and overall diagnostic accuracy for PET/CT and DCE-CT. Costs and cost-effectiveness were estimated from a healthcare provider perspective using a decision-model. Results: 312 participants (47% female, 68.1±9.0 years) completed the study, with 61% rate of malignancy at 2 years. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values for DCE-CT were 95.3% [95% CI 91.3;97.5], 29.8% [95% CI 22.3;38.4], 68.2% [95% CI 62.4%;73.5%] and 80.0% [95% CI 66.2;89.1] respectively, and for PET/CT were 79.1% [95% CI 72.7;84.2], 81.8% [95% CI 74.0;87.7], 87.3%[95% CI 81.5;91.5) and 71·2% [95% CI 63.2;78.1]. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) for DCE-CT and PET/CT was 0.62 [95%CI 0.58;0.67] and 0.80 [95%CI 0.76;0.85] respectively (p<0.001). Combined results significantly increased diagnostic accuracy over PET/CT alone (AUROC=0.90 [95%CI 0.86;0.93], p<0.001). DCE-CT was preferred when the willingness to pay per incremental cost per correctly treated malignancy was below £9000. Above £15500 a combined approach was preferred. Conclusions: PET/CT has a superior diagnostic accuracy to DCE-CT for the diagnosis of solitary pulmonary nodules. Combining both techniques improves the diagnostic accuracy over either test alone and could be cost-effective. (Clinical trials.gov - NCT02013063)