Dependencia de la densidad en los ánades norteamericanos

The existence or otherwise of density dependence within a population can have important implications for the management of that population. Here, we use estimates of abundance obtained from annual aerial counts on the major breeding grounds of a variety of North American duck species and use a state space model to separate the observation and ecological system processes. This state space approach allows us to impose a density dependence structure upon the true underlying population rather than on the estimates and we emonstrate the improved robustness of this procedure for detecting density dependence in the population. We adopt a Bayesian approach to model fitting, using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and use a reversible jump MCMC scheme to calculate posterior model probabilities which assign probabilities to the presence of density dependence within the population, for example. We show how these probabilities can be used either to discriminate between models or to provide model–averaged predictions which fully account for both parameter and model uncertainty.La existencia o ausencia de efectos dependientes de la densidad en una población puede acarrear importantes repercusiones para la gestión de la misma. En este artículo empleamos estimaciones de abundancia obtenidas a partir de recuentos aéreos anuales de las principales áreas de reproducción de diversas especies de ánades norteamericanos, utilizando un modelo de estados espaciales para separar los procesos de observación y los procesos del sistema ecológico. Este enfoque basado en estados espaciales nos permite imponer una estructura que depende de la densidad de la población subyacente real, más que de las estimaciones, además de demostrar la robustez mejorada de este procedimiento para detectar la dependencia de la densidad en la población. Para el ajuste de modelos adoptamos un planteamiento bayesiano, utilizando los métodos de Monte Carlo basados en cadenas de Markov (MCMC), así como un programa MCMC de salto reversible para calcular, por ejemplo, las probabilidades posteriores de los modelos que asignan probabilidades a la presencia de una dependencia de la densidad en la población. También demostramos cómo pueden emplearse estas probabilidades para discriminar entre modelos o para proporcionar predicciones promediadas entre modelos que tengan totalmente en cuenta tanto la incertidumbre referente a parámetros como a modelos

Density dependence in North American ducks

The existence or otherwise of density dependence within a population can have important implications for the management of that population. Here, we use estimates of abundance obtained from annual aerial counts on the major breeding grounds of a variety of North American duck species and use a state space model to separate the observation and ecological system processes. This state space approach allows us to impose a density dependence structure upon the true underlying population rather than on the estimates and we demonstrate the improved robustness of this procedure for detecting density dependence in the population. We adopt a Bayesian approach to model fitting, using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and use a reversible jump MCMC scheme to calculate posterior model probabilities which assign probabilities to the presence of density dependence within the population, for example. We show how these probabilities can be used either to discriminate between models or to provide model-averaged predictions which fully account for both parameter and model uncertainty

Fractal-like Distributions over the Rational Numbers in High-throughput Biological and Clinical Data

Recent developments in extracting and processing biological and clinical data are allowing quantitative approaches to studying living systems. High-throughput sequencing, expression profiles, proteomics, and electronic health records are some examples of such technologies. Extracting meaningful information from those technologies requires careful analysis of the large volumes of data they produce. In this note, we present a set of distributions that commonly appear in the analysis of such data. These distributions present some interesting features: they are discontinuous in the rational numbers, but continuous in the irrational numbers, and possess a certain self-similar (fractal-like) structure. The first set of examples which we present here are drawn from a high-throughput sequencing experiment. Here, the self-similar distributions appear as part of the evaluation of the error rate of the sequencing technology and the identification of tumorogenic genomic alterations. The other examples are obtained from risk factor evaluation and analysis of relative disease prevalence and co-mordbidity as these appear in electronic clinical data. The distributions are also relevant to identification of subclonal populations in tumors and the study of the evolution of infectious diseases, and more precisely the study of quasi-species and intrahost diversity of viral populations

Hepatitis C virus (HCV): prevalence in a gynecological urgent care clinic population.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) among women seeking urgent gynecological care. METHODS: Women were asked to complete a short self-assessment screening of HCV risk. Those answering yes to any of the screening questions were offered HCV testing and were asked to complete a more detailed questionnaire. RESULTS: Among the 125 women who completed the screening questionnaire, 80% (100) answered yes to one or more of the screening questions. Of the 99 women who underwent testing, six (6.1%) were HCV seropositive; a history of injection drug use was the only finding associated with HCV seropositivity (R.R 9.7: 95% CI 1.90-49.40). CONCLUSIONS: Women seeking urgent outpatient gynecological care, particularly those who are injection drug users, are at a substantial risk of HCV infection. A careful risk assessment should be completed in order to identify women who should be offered HCV testing

A systematic review of post-release programs for women exiting prison with substance-use disorders: assessing current programs and weighing the evidence.

BACKGROUND: The rising rates of women in prison is a serious public health issue. Unlike men, women in prison are characterised by significant histories of trauma, poor mental health, and high rates of substance use disorders (SUDs). Recidivism rates of women have also increased exponentially in the last decade, with substance related offences being the most imprisoned offence worldwide. There is a lack of evidence of the effectiveness of post-release programs for women. The aim of this systematic review is to synthesise and evaluate the evidence on post-release programs for women exiting prison with SUDs. METHODS: We searched eight scientific databases for empirical original research published in English with no date limitation. Studies with an objective to reduce recidivism for adult women (⩾18 years) with a SUD were included. Study quality was assessed using the revised Cochrane Risk of Bias tool for randomized trials (RoB2) and the Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies - of Interventions (ROBINS-I) tools. RESULTS: Of the 1493 articles, twelve (n = 3799 women) met the inclusion criteria. Recidivism was significantly reduced in five (42%) programs and substance-use was significantly reduced in one (8.3%) program. Common attributes among programs that reduced recidivism were: transitional, gender-responsive programs; provision of individualised support; providing substance-related therapy, mental health and trauma treatment services. Methodological and reporting biases were common, which impacted our ability to synthesize results further. Recidivism was inconsistently measured across studies further impacting the ability to compare results across studies. CONCLUSIONS: Recidivism is a problematic measure of program efficacy because it is inconsistently measured and deficit-focused, unrecognising of women's gains in the post-release period despite lack of tailored programs and significant health and social disadvantages. The current evidence suggests that women benefit from continuity of care from prison to the community, which incorporated gender-responsive programming and individualised case management that targeted co-morbid mental health and SUDs. Future program design should incorporate these attributes of successful programs identified in this review to better address the unique challenges that women with SUDs face when they transition back into the community

Planning, Implementing, and Evaluating a Program to Address the Oral Health Needs of Aboriginal Children in Port Augusta, Australia

Aboriginal Australian children experience profound oral health disparities relative to their non-Aboriginal counterparts. In response to community concerns regarding Aboriginal child oral health in the regional town of Port Augusta, South Australia, a child dental health service was established within a Community Controlled Aboriginal Health Service. A partnership approach was employed with the key aims of (1) quantifying rates of dental service utilisation, (2) identifying factors influencing participation, and (3) planning and establishing a program for delivery of Aboriginal children's dental services that would increase participation and adapt to community needs. In planning the program, levels of participation were quantified and key issues identified through semistructured interviews. After 3.5 years, the participation rate for dental care among the target population increased from 53 to 70 percent. Key areas were identified to encourage further improvements and ensure sustainability in Aboriginal child oral health in this regional location

AKT regulates NPM dependent ARF localization and p53mut stability in tumors

Nucleophosmin (NPM) is known to regulate ARF subcellular localization and MDM2 activity in response to oncogenic stress, though the precise mechanism has remained elusive. Here we describe how NPM and ARF associate in the nucleoplasm to form a MDM2 inhibitory complex. We find that oligomerization of NPM drives nucleolar accumulation of ARF. Moreover, the formation of NPM and ARF oligomers antagonizes MDM2 association with the inhibitory complex, leading to activation of MDM2 E3-ligase activity and targeting of p53. We find that AKT phosphorylation of NPM-Ser48 prevents oligomerization that results in nucleoplasmic localization of ARF, constitutive MDM2 inhibition and stabilization of p53. We also show that ARF promotes p53 mutant stability in tumors and suppresses p73 mediated p21 expression and senescence. We demonstrate that AKT and PI3K inhibitors may be effective in treatment of therapeutically resistant tumors with elevated AKT and carrying gain of function mutations in p53. Our results show that the clinical candidate AKT inhibitor MK-2206 promotes ARF nucleolar localization, reduced p53(mut) stability and increased sensitivity to ionizing radiation in a xenograft model of pancreatic cancer. Analysis of human tumors indicates that phospho-S48-NPM may be a useful biomarker for monitoring AKT activity and in vivo efficacy of AKT inhibitor treatment. Critically, we propose that combination therapy involving PI3K-AKT inhibitors would benefit from a patient stratification rationale based on ARF and p53(mut) status