External validation of multidimensional prognostic indices (ADO, BODEx and DOSE) in a primary care international cohort (PROEPOC/COPD cohort)

Background: Due to the heterogeneous and systemic nature of the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the new guidelines are oriented toward individualized attention. Multidimensional scales could facilitate its proper clinical and prognostic assessment, but not all of them were validated in an international primary care cohort, different from the original ones used for model development. Therefore, our main aim is to assess the prognostic capacity of the ADO, BODEx and DOSE indices in primary care for predicting mortality in COPD patients and to validate the models obtained in subgroups of patients, classified by revised Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (2011) and updated Spanish Guideline (2014). Besides, we want to confirm that the prognostic capacity of all indices increases if the number of exacerbations is substituted by the interval between them and to assess the impact on health of the patient''s lifestyle, social network and adherence to treatment. Methods: Design: External validation of scales, open and prospective cohort study in primary care. Setting: 36 health centres in 6 European high, medium and low income countries. Subjects: 477 patients diagnosed with COPD, captured in clinical visit by their General Practitioner/Nurse. Predictors: Detailed patient history, exacerbations, lung function test and questionnaires at baseline. Outcomes: Exacerbations, all-cause mortality and specific mortality, within 5 years of recruitment. Analysis: Multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression will be used. Possible non-linear effect of the indices will be studied by using Structured Additive Regression models with penalised splines. Subsequently, we will assess different aspects of the regression models: discrimination, calibration and diagnostic precision. Clinical variables modulated in primary care and the interval between exacerbations will be considered and incorporated into the analysis. Discussion: The Research Agenda for General Practice/Family Medicine highlights that the evidence on predictive values of prognostic indices in primary care is scarce. A prospective cohort like that of PROEPOC/COPD provides good opportunities for research into COPD and make communication easier between family practitioners, nursing staff, pneumologists and other professionals, supporting a multi-disciplinary approach to the treatment of these patients. Trial registration:ISRCTN52402811. Date: 15/01/2015. Prospectively registered

Educational paper: Abusive Head Trauma Part I. Clinical aspects

Abusive Head Trauma (AHT) refers to the combination of findings formerly described as shaken baby syndrome. Although these findings can be caused by shaking, it has become clear that in many cases there may have been impact trauma as well. Therefore a less specific term has been adopted by the American Academy of Pediatrics. AHT is a relatively common cause of childhood neurotrauma with an estimated incidence of 14–40 cases per 100,000 children under the age of 1 year. About 15–23% of these children die within hours or days after the incident. Studies among AHT survivors demonstrate that approximately one-third of the children are severely disabled, one-third of them are moderately disabled and one-third have no or only mild symptoms. Other publications suggest that neurological problems can occur after a symptom-free interval and that half of these children have IQs below the 10th percentile. Clinical findings are depending on the definitions used, but AHT should be considered in all children with neurological signs and symptoms especially if no or only mild trauma is described. Subdural haematomas are the most reported finding. The only feature that has been identified discriminating AHT from accidental injury is apnoea. Conclusion: AHT should be approached with a structured approach, as in any other (potentially lethal) disease. The clinician can only establish this diagnosis if he/she has knowledge of the signs and symptoms of AHT, risk factors, the differential diagnosis and which additional investigations to perform, the more so since parents seldom will describe the true state of affairs spontaneously

Enrichment culture of CSF is of limited value in the diagnosis of neonatal meningitis

Neonatal meningitis is difficult to diagnose due to the subtle and nonspecific symptoms in neonates, and confirmation requires cerebrospinal fluid examination (CSF) [1]. Gram stain, culture of CSF directly onto agar plates, and broth enrichment culture are well established methods for diagnosing bacterial meningitis [2–5]. Other methods under evaluation include use of bacterial polymerase chain reaction combined with DNA sequencing [6]. The aim of CSF broth enrichment culture is to facilitate the isolation of damaged organisms and to recover those present in small numbers [7, 8]. The exact origin of enrichment culture is unknown [9]. Beijerinck and Winogradski are believed to be the first to recommend enrichment techniques [10]. We previously reported on the utility of various microbiology tests for the diagnosis of bacterial meningitis in the newborn [7]. We showed that enrichment cultures (inoculation of CSF into a brain-heart infusion broth incubated for 48 hrs) when performed on all lumbar puncture specimens are often falsely positive, because the prevalence of true bacterial meningitis is low in neonatal intensive care units and the test lacks specificity. We suggested that enrichment culture should be confined to settings where the prevalence of bacterial meningitis was higher, such as in samples with raised CSF white cell count (WCC), where organisms are seen on the Gram stain or where pathogens may be difficult to grow such as when babies have already received antibiotics. The aim of our current study was to assess the performance of enrichment culture when performed on CSF samples selected on the basis of a raised WCC of ≥30 /mm3