DEFINING AND ESTIMATING UNDERGROUND AND INFORMAL ECONOMIES: THE NEW INSTITIONAL ECONOMICS APPROACH

A taxonomy of underground economies is elaborated based on the new institutional approach to economic development. Members of formal sectors confront different sets of transformation and transaction costs than do members of informal sectors and these differences are regarded as crucial to the development process. The paper distinguishes illegal, unreported, unrecorded and informal economies and examines the conceptual and empirical linkages among them. Alternative micro and macro methodologies for measuring underground activities are reviewed and evaluated including census and survey procedures, discrepancies and monetary methods. To be published in World Development, Vol 18, No 7, 1990.Underground, unrecorded, unreported, informal, illegal, unobserved, hidden, shadow economy, transaction costs, monetary methods.

The Dynamics of Currency Substitution, Asset Substitution and De facto Dollarization and Euroization in Transition Countrieses

This paper presents new evidence on the dynamics of dollarization and euroization for twenty-five transition countries. Estimates of the amount of foreign currency in circulation (FCC) in transition countries are used to develop a new comprehensive dollarization index (CDI) and separate indices of currency substitution (CSI) and asset substitution (ASI). When the CDI is compared to the traditional dollarization index (DI) that relies solely on foreign currency deposits as a proxy for the extent of dollarization, I find that the comprehensive dollarization measure provides a more complete picture of the extent of de facto dollarization and euroization, and that it better reflects the separate influences of currency substitution and asset substitution. I find that the dynamic evolution of currency substitution and asset substitution in transition countries is both more variable and complex than is usually believed to be the case. These new dollarization indicators enable researchers to examine the causes of the dollarization process and its tendency to lead to irreversibility (hysteresis). Moreover, the currency substitution and asset substitution indices shed light on the dynamic consequences of these processes for the effectiveness of monetary policy. Finally, the new estimates of FCC make possible the measurement of effective currency/deposit ratios that can be used to develop new estimates of the size and growth of underground economies in transition countries. Forthcoming Comparative Economic Studies, Fall, 2003dollarization, euroization, transition economies, currency substitution, asset substitution, underground economies, foreign currency, network externalities, irreversibility.

Rethinking Taxation:The Automated Payment Transaction (APT)Tax

This paper examines the desirability and feasibility of replacing the present system of personal and corporate income, sales, excise, capital gains, import and export duties, gift and estate taxes with a single comprehensive revenue neutral Automated Payment Transaction (APT) tax. In its simplest form, the APT tax consists of a flat tax levied on all transactions. The tax is automatically assessed and collected when transactions are settled through the electronic technology of the banking/ payments system. The APT tax introduces progressivity through the tax base since the volume of final payments includes exchanges of titles to property and is therefore more highly skewed than the conventional income or consumption tax base. The wealthy carry out a disproportionate share of total transactions and therefore bear a disproportionate burden of the tax despite its flat rate structure. The automated recording of all APT tax payments by firms and individuals creates a degree of transparency and perceived fairness that induces greater tax compliance. Also, the tax has lower administrative and compliance cost. Like all taxes, the APT tax creates new distortions whose costs must be weighted against the benefits obtained by replacing the current tax system.tax reform, APT tax, tobin tax, electric money, transaction tax, flat tax, security transaction tax, globalization, fiscal harmonization, underground economy, automated payment system, elimination of tax returns, compliance costs.

New estimates of U.S. currency abroad, the domestic money supply and the unreported Economy

New Estimates of U.S. Currency Abroad, the Domestic Money Supply and the Unreported Economy Edgar L. Feige * Abstract Despite financial innovations that have created important new substitutes for cash usage, per capita holdings of U.S. currency amount to $2950. Yet American households and businesses admit to holding only 15 percent of the currency stock, leaving the whereabouts of 85 percent unknown. Some fraction of this unaccounted for currency is held abroad (the dollarization hypothesis) and some is held domestically undeclared, as a store of value and a medium of exchange for transactions involving the production and distribution of illegal goods and services, and for transactions earning income that is not reported to the IRS (the unreported economy hypothesis). We find that the percentage of U.S. currency currently held overseas is between 30-37 percent rather than the widely cited figure of 65 percent. This finding is based on the official Federal Reserve/Bureau of Economic Analysis data which is a proxy measure of the New York Federal Reserve’s (NYB) “confidential” data on wholesale currency shipments abroad. We recommend that the NYB data be aggregated so as to circumvent confidentiality concerns, and be made readily available to all researchers in order to shed greater light on the questions of how much U.S. currency is abroad and on the particular location of overseas U.S. dollars. The newly revised official estimates of overseas currency holdings are employed to determine the Federal Reserve’s seigniorage earnings from 1964-2010, which have provided a$287 billion windfall for U.S. taxpayers. Overseas currency stock data are also used to derive estimates of the domestically held stock of currency as well as narrow and broad measures of domestic monetary aggregates. These domestic monetary aggregates are believed to be better predictors of future economic activity than traditional monetary aggregates and are tested to determine their ability to predict fluctuations in real output and prices. Domestic cash holdings are finally used to estimate the size of the U.S. unreported economy as measured by the amount of income that is not properly reported to the IRS. By 2010, we estimate that legal and illegal source unreported income” is $1.9 -$2.4 trillion, implying a “tax gap” in the range of $400-$550 billion. Currently, we estimate that 18-23 percent of total reportable income is not properly reported to the IRS.Overseas currency; currency abroad; underground economy; unreported economy; domestic money supply; tax gap; tax evasion; cash payments; monetary aggregates

THE AUTOMATED PAYMENT TRANSACTION (APT) TAX: A proposal to the President's Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform

I propose the replacement of our current system of individual and corporate income, sales, excise, capital gains, import and export duties, gift and estate taxes with a single comprehensive “revenue neutral” Automated Payment Transaction (APT) tax. The APT tax consists of a flat rate tax levied on all voluntary transactions. The total volume of transactions represents the broadest conceivable tax base and therefore requires the lowest conceivable marginal tax rate. Since the efficiency (misallocation) costs of a tax system tend to rise geometrically with the marginal tax rate, a massive reduction in tax rates can save an estimated $300 billion of misallocation costs associated with the current tax system. The APT tax is automatically assessed and collected when transactions are routinely settled through the electronic technology of the bank/payments clearing system with no deductions, exemptions, or exclusions. The APT tax also imposes an automatically collected tax on cash as it enters and leaves the banking system. All income and information tax returns are eliminated as taxes are digitally assessed and collected by the financial equivalent of the E-Z pass that is now used to speed traffic through a toll booth system on highways. The annual savings in compliance and administrative costs are estimated to be$200 billion per year. Unlike the “Fair Tax” or “National Sales Tax” proposals which are highly regressive, the flat rate APT tax introduces progressivity through the tax base since the total volume of transactions includes all asset transactions involving exchanges of titles to property. The wealthy carry out a disproportionate share of these asset exchanges and therefore bear a disproportionate burden of the tax despite its flat rate structure. The perceived fairness, even handedness and simplicity of the APT tax will greatly reduce tax evasion, which the IRS estimates to total $325 billion per year. Like all taxes, the APT tax creates new distortions which must be weighed against the benefits obtained by scrapping the current tax system. Scrapping the present tax system tax promises potential benefits estimated at$825 billion annually. The proposed APT tax is simple, comprehensible, fair and efficient, with minimal administrative and compliance costs. The burden of proof therefore rests with APT tax opponents who must demonstrate that its costs exceed the $825 billion of potential annual benefits.Tax reform; administration and compliance costs;equity; efficiency; flat tax;

Taxation for the 21st Century: The Automated Payment Transaction (APT) Tax

This paper examines the desirability and feasibility of replacing the present system of personal and corporate income, sales, excise, capital gains, import and export duties, gift and estate taxes with a single comprehensive revenue neutral Automated Payment Transaction (APT) tax. In its simplest form, the APT tax consists of a flat tax levied on all transactions. The tax is automatically assessed and collected when transactions are settled through the electronic technology of the banking/ payments system. The APT tax introduces progressivity through the tax base since the volume of final payments includes exchanges of titles to property and is therefore more highly skewed than the conventional income or consumption tax base. The wealthy carry out a disproportionate share of total transactions and therefore bear a disproportionate burden of the tax despite its flat rate structure. The automated recording of all APT tax payments by firms and individuals creates a degree of transparency and perceived fairness that induces greater tax compliance. Also, the tax has lower administrative and compliance cost. Like all taxes, the APT tax creates new distortions whose costs must be weighted against the benefits obtained by replacing the current tax system. ---Edgar L. Feigetax reform, APT tax, tobin tax, electric money, transaction tax, flat tax, security transaction tax, globalization, fiscal harmonization, underground economy, automated payment system, elimination of tax returns, compliance costs.

The Dynamics of Currency Substitution, Asset Substitution and De facto Dollarization and Euroization in Transition Countries

This paper presents new evidence on the dynamics of dollarization and euroization for twenty-five transition countries. Estimates of the amount of foreign currency in circulation (FCC) in transition countries are used to develop a new comprehensive dollarization index (CDI) and separate indices of currency substitution (CSI) and asset substitution (ASI). When the CDI is compared to the traditional dollarization index (DI) that relies solely on foreign currency deposits as a proxy for the extent of dollarization, I find that the comprehensive dollarization measure provides a more complete picture of the extent of de facto dollarization and euroization, and that it better reflects the separate influences of currency substitution and asset substitution. I find that the dynamic evolution of currency substitution and asset substitution in transition countries is both more variable and complex than is usually believed to be the case. These new dollarization indicators enable researchers to examine the causes of the dollarization process and its tendency to lead to irreversibility (hysteresis). Moreover, the currency substitution and asset substitution indices shed light on the dynamic consequences of these processes for the effectiveness of monetary policy. Finally, the new estimates of FCC make possible the measurement of effective currency/deposit ratios that can be used to develop new estimates of the size and growth of underground economies in transition countries. JEL classification: E4 E5 F3 H26 K42 P2 P3 Keywords: dollarization, euroization, transition economies, currency substitution, asset substitution, underground economies, foreign currency, network externalities, irreversibility.dollarization, euroization, transition economies, currency substitution, asset substitution, underground economies, foreign currency, network externalities, irreversibility

Starting Over: The Automated Payment Transaction Tax

This paper proposes a 21st century global fiscal architecture to replace the present system of personal and corporate income, sales, excise, capital gains, import and export duties, gift and estate taxes with a single comprehensive revenue neutral Automated Payment Transaction (APT) tax. In its simplest form, the APT tax consists of a flat tax levied on all transactions. The tax is automatically assessed and collected when transactions are settled through the electronic technology of the banking/ payments system. The APT tax introduces progressivity through the tax base rather than via the rate structure. Since roughly 85% of all transactions involve the exchange of financial instruments, it is the wealthy who carry out a disproportionate share of total transactions and therefore bear a disproportionate burden of the tax despite its flat rate structure. The automated recording of all APT tax payments by firms and individuals creates a degree of transparency and perceived fairness that induces greater tax compliance. Also, the tax has lower administrative and compliance cost. Like all taxes, the APT tax creates new distortions whose costs must be weighted against the benefits obtained by replacing the current tax system.APT tax;transaction tax;Tobin Tax;Security Transaction tax;debit tax;global achitecture;tax reform;flat tax

The Transition to a Market Economy in Russia: Property Rights, Mass Privatization and Stabilization

The Soviet Union and the nations of Eastern Europe are undergoing a historically unprecedented restructuring as they move inexorably from centrally planned economies toward market economies. This historic transition must be guided by a coherent set of stabilization policies to reduce the threat of macroeconomic collapse and the threat of inflation. As a precursor to price liberalization, private property rights must be created, distributed and credibly enforced in order to ensure that these rights can be freely traded at market prices. The creation and distribution of property rights must find a balance between the competing goals of equity on the one hand and efficient governance structures on the other. Finally, provision must be made for a social safety net, sufficiently broad to minimize the short run burden of an inevitably costly adjustment process in order to avoid a crisis of constitutional authority. A program of “Socialist Privatization” is proposed as a political means of establishing market capitalism on the basis of an equitable distribution of wealth.Transition, stabilization, liberalization, privatization, property rights, vouchers, Russia

UNDERGROUND ACTIVITY AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE: PRODUCTIVE, PROTECTIVE AND PREDATORY BEHAVIOR IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES

This paper examines why some transitions are more successful than others by focusing attention on the role of productive, protective and predatory behaviors from the perspective of the new institutional economics. Many transition economies are characterized by a fundamental inconsistency between formal and informal institutions. When formal and informal rules clash, noncompliant behaviors proliferate, among them, tax evasion, corruption, bribery, organized criminality, and theft of government property. These wealth redistributing protective and predatory behaviors activities absorb resources that could otherwise be used for wealth production resulting in huge transition costs. Noncompliant behaviors--evasion, avoidance, circumvention, abuse, and/or corruption of institutional rules--comprise what we can be termed underground economies. A variety of underground economies can be differentiated according to the types of rules violated by the noncompliant behaviors. The focus of the new institutional economics is on the consequences of institutions--the rules that structure and constrain economic activity--for economic outcomes. Underground economics is concerned with instances in which the rules are evaded, circumvented, and violated. It seeks to determine the conditions likely to foster rule violations, and to understand the various consequences of noncompliance with institutional rules. Noncompliance with ‘bad” rules may actually foster development whereas non compliance with “good” rules will hinder development. Since rules differ, both the nature and consequences of rule violations will therefore depend on the particular rules violated. Institutional economics and underground economics are therefore highly complementary. The former examines the rules of the game, the latter the strategic responses of individuals and organizations to those rules. Economic performance depends on both the nature of the rules and the extent of compliance with them. Institutions therefore do affect economic performance, but it is not always obvious which institutional rules dominate. Where formal and informal institutions are coherent and consistent, the incentives produced by the formal rules will affect economic outcomes. Under these circumstances, the rule of law typically secures property rights, reduces uncertainty, and lowers transaction costs. In regimes of discretionary authority where formal institutions conflict with informal norms, noncompliance with the formal rules becomes pervasive, and underground economic activity is consequential for economic outcomes.transition economies, underground economies, institutions, property rights, transaction costs, tax evasion, corruption, rent seeking.