Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies

Evaluating operational AVHRR sea surface temperature data at the coastline using surfers

Sea surface temperature (SST) is an essential climate variable that can be measured routinely from Earth Observation (EO) with high temporal and spatial coverage. To evaluate its suitability for an application, it is critical to know the accuracy and precision (performance) of the EO SST data. This requires comparisons with co-located and concomitant in situ data. Owing to a relatively large network of in situ platforms there is a good understanding of the performance of EO SST data in the open ocean. However, at the coastline this performance is not well known, impeded by a lack of in situ data. Here, we used in situ SST measurements collected by a group of surfers over a three year period in the coastal waters of the UK and Ireland, to improve our understanding of the performance of EO SST data at the coastline. At two beaches near the city of Plymouth, UK, the in situ SST measurements collected by the surfers were compared with in situ SST collected from two autonomous buoys located ∼7 km and ∼33 km from the coastline, and showed good agreement, with discrepancies consistent with the spatial separation of the sites. The in situ SST measurements collected by the surfers around the coastline, and those collected offshore by the two autonomous buoys, were used to evaluate the performance of operational Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) EO SST data. Results indicate: (i) a significant reduction in the performance of AVHRR at retrieving SST at the coastline, with root mean square errors in the range of 1.0 to 2.0 °C depending on the temporal difference between match-ups, significantly higher than those at the two offshore stations (0.4 to 0.6 °C); (ii) a systematic negative bias in the AVHRR retrievals of approximately 1 °C at the coastline, not observed at the two offshore stations; and (iii) an increase in the root mean square error at the coastline when the temporal difference between match-ups exceeded three hours. Harnessing new solutions to improve in situ sampling coverage at the coastline, such as tagging surfers with sensors, can improve our understanding of the performance of EO SST data in coastal regions, helping inform users interested in EO SST products for coastal applications. Yet, validating EO SST products using in situ SST data at the coastline is challenged by difficulties reconciling the two measurements, which are provided at different spatial scales in a dynamic and complex environment

Impact of Anomalous Northward Oceanic Heat Transport on Global Climate in a Slab Ocean Setting

International audienceThis paper explores the impact of anomalous northward oceanic heat transport on global climate in a slab ocean setting. To that end, the GCM LMDZ5A of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique is coupled to a slab ocean, with realistic zonal asymmetries and seasonal cycle. Two simulations with different anomalous surface heating are imposed: 1) uniform heating over the North Atlantic basin and 2) concentrated heating inthe Gulf Stream region, with a compensating uniform cooling in the Southern Ocean in both cases. The magnitudes of the heating and of the implied northward interhemispheric heat transport are within the range of current natural variability. Both simulations show global effects that are particularly strong in the tropics, with a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) toward the heating anomalies. This shift is accompanied by a northward shift of the storm tracks in both hemispheres. From the comparison between the two simulations with different anomalous surface heating in the North Atlantic, it emerges that the global climate response is nearly insensitive to the spatial distribution of the heating. The cloud response acts as a large positive feedback on the oceanic forcing, mainly because of the low-cloud-induced shortwave anomalies in the extratropics. While previous literature has speculated that the extratropical Q flux may impact the tropics by the way of the transient eddy fluxes, it is explicitly demonstrated here. In the midlatitudes, the authors find a systema

Underwater glider reliability and implications for survey design

It has been 20 years since the concept of Autonomous Oceanographic Sampling Network (AOSN) was first introduced. This vision has been brought closer to reality with the introduction of undersea gliders. Whilst in terms of functionality the undersea glider has shown to be capable of meeting the AOSN vision, in terms of reliability there is no community-wide hard evidence on whether persistent presence is currently being achieved. This paper studies the reliability of undersea gliders in order to assess the feasibility of using these platforms for future AOSN. The data used is taken from 205 deployments of gliders by 12 European laboratories between 2008 and 2012. Risk profiles were calculated for two makes of deep underwater glider; there is no statistically significant difference between them. Regardless of make the probability of a deep undersea glider surviving a 90 day mission without pre-mature mission end is approximately 0.5. The probability of a shallow undersea glider surviving 30 day mission without premature mission end is 0.59. This implies that to date factors other than the energy available are preventing undersea gliders achieving their maximum capability. This reliability information was used to quantify the likelihood of two reported undersea glider surveys meeting the observation needs for a period of 6 months and to quantify the level of redundancy needed to in order to increase the likelihood of meeting the observation needs

Mechanisms Determining the Winter Atmospheric Response to the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

International audienceIn climate models, an intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) precedes a warming in the North Atlantic subpolar basin by a few years. In the IPSL-CM5A-LR model, this warming may explain the atmospheric response to the AMOC observed in winter, which resembles a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). To firmly establish the causality links between the ocean and the atmosphere and illustrate the underlying mechanisms in this model, ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations are conducted, prescribing the SST and sea ice anomalies that follow an AMOC intensification. In late winter, the North Atlantic SST and sea ice anomalies drive atmospheric circulation anomalies similar to those found in the coupled model. Simulations only driven by the SST anomalies related to the AMOC show that the largest oceanic influence is due to the warm subpolar SST anomaly, which enhances the oceanic heat release and decreases the lower-tropospheric baroclinicity in the region of maximum eddy growth, resulting in a weaker meridional eddy heat flux in the atmosphere. The transient eddy feedback leads to a negative NAO-like response. An AMOC intensification is also followed by less sea ice over the Labrador Sea and more sea ice over the Nordic seas. The simulations with full boundary forcing suggest that such anomalies act to strengthen both the poleward momentum flux and the upward heat flux into the polar stratosphere and lead to a stratospheric warming, which then reinforces the negative NAO signal in late winter

Paralysie diaphragmatique bilatérale imputable à un syndrome de Parsonage-Turner

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Future projections of the surface heat and water budgets of the Mediterranean Sea in an ensemble of coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models

International audienceWithin the CIRCE project “Climate change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment”, an ensemble of high resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models (AORCMs) are used to simulate the Mediterranean climate for the period 1950–2050. For the first time, realistic net surface air-sea fluxes are obtained. The sea surface temperature (SST) variability is consistent with the atmospheric forcing above it and oceanic constraints. The surface fluxes respond to external forcing under a warming climate and show an equivalent trend in all models. This study focuses on the present day and on the evolution of the heat and water budget over the Mediterranean Sea under the SRES-A1B scenario. On the contrary to previous studies, the net total heat budget is negative over the present period in all AORCMs and satisfies the heat closure budget controlled by a net positive heat gain at the strait of Gibraltar in the present climate. Under climate change scenario, some models predict a warming of the Mediterranean Sea from the ocean surface (positive net heat flux) in addition to the positive flux at the strait of Gibraltar for the 2021–2050 period. The shortwave and latent flux are increasing and the longwave and sensible fluxes are decreasing compared to the 1961–1990 period due to a reduction of the cloud cover and an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and SSTs over the 2021–2050 period. The AORCMs provide a good estimates of the water budget with a drying of the region during the twenty-first century. For the ensemble mean, he decrease in precipitation and runoff is about 10 and 15% respectively and the increase in evaporation is much weaker, about 2% compared to the 1961–1990 period which confirm results obtained in recent studies. Despite a clear consistency in the trends and results between the models, this study also underlines important differences in the model set-ups, methodology and choices of some physical parameters inducing some difference in the various air-sea fluxes. An evaluation of the uncertainty sources and possible improvement for future generation of AORCMs highlights the importance of the parameterisation of the ocean albedo, rivers and cloud cover