Food security, poverty, and economic policy in the Middle East and North Africa

In MENA, household food insecurity, which is closely related to poverty and undernourishment, is most severe in rural areas and concentrated within Iraq, Sudan, and Yemen. 25% of the MENA population may be poor and 7% undernourished. The key to increased national and household-level food security is pro-poor growth, driven by export-oriented, labor-intensive sectors. Agricultural sector policies should be subordinate to the pro-poor growth goal and not to the goal of food self-sufficiency. Such a strategy requires conflict resolution; macroeconomic stability; physical and human capital accumulation; reliance on markets and the private sector, and diffusion of ecologically friendly farming practices.food security ,Poverty ,Africa, North ,Middle East ,Development policies ,Economic policy ,

Egypt\u27s Program for Stabilization and Structural Adjustment: An Assessment

[abstract not provided]https://fount.aucegypt.edu/faculty_book_chapters/1924/thumbnail.jp

Introduction (the Economics and Politics of Structural Adjustment in Egypt)

[abstract not provided]https://fount.aucegypt.edu/faculty_book_chapters/1922/thumbnail.jp

Macro and micro effects of recent and potential shocks to copper mining in Zambia

"As a result of Zambia's dependence on copper mining, both the falling world copper price and the possible withdrawal of investment from the mining sector might seriously threaten economic growth and stability. Accordingly, the impact of a 20 percent reduction in world copper prices and a complete collapse of the copper mining sector are modeled using a 1995 computable general equilibrium model for Zambia. Results indicate that the fall in world copper prices will place significant pressure on non-mining exports, with much of the burden of raising foreign exchange falling on the food, beverages and tobacco, and textiles and garment sectors. However, the agricultural and agro-related industries are the most export-responsive (albeit from initially low levels) to the forced depreciation of the currency. The complete collapse of copper mining in Zambia is shown to have a substantial and negative impact on the economy. The fall in production and exports for this important sector leads to a considerable depreciation of the currency in order to fill the resulting gap in foreign earnings. In the short-run, real GDP is reduced by as much as 16 percent. Although the largest increase in exports arises within the food, beverages and tobacco sector, the agricultural and agro-related sectors show considerable potential as sources of foreign exchange earnings. It is found that both the fall in world prices and the reduction in mining output lead to a fall in total real household consumption. However, given that rural households derive a relatively high share of their income from tradable sectors that benefit from the depreciation, the shocks lead to a progressive redistribution of household incomes and consumption. The impact of providing an injection of foreign exchange into the country is found to involve a trade-off between alleviating the negative welfare effects of the copper mining shocks and the provision of incentives for structural adjustment. Furthermore, targeted capital investment in highly export-responsive sectors reduces the necessary depreciation of the real exchange rate, and the need for structural adjustment in other areas of the economy." Authors' Abstract.Structural adjustment (Economic policy) ,Copper miners ,Copper mines and mining ,TMD ,Zambia. ,Foreign exchange. ,Agricultural prices. ,

Less poverty in Egypt?

In this paper, the impact of alternative development strategies on growth and poverty is assessed in an economywide framework, using Egypt as a case study. The analysis is guided by the following question: By pursuing a development strategy different from the one actually pursued since the late 1970s, could Egypt's government significantly have improved the status of its poor? To address this question, a dynamic, recursive, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is used to simulate Egypt's economy for the period 1979-1997. The model is built around a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 1979. The results indicate that pro-poor redistribution of land and human capital assets could have been a particularly effective tool had Egypt prioritized more strongly to improve the welfare of the poor and reduce inequalities. Such policies could have been implemented without any noticeable negative impact on growth or aggregate welfare. The results also suggest that, for Egypt, there was no contradiction between more rapid growth, largely a function of more rapid productivity growth, and improved welfare for the poor. The present analysis confirms the finding of earlier analyses that, compared to pro-manufacturing policies, pro-agricultural policies have a more positive impact on household welfare in general and the poor in particular. There is a significant synergy between a pro-agricultural shift in productivity growth, improved market access for agricultural exports, and reduced transactions costs in foreign trade.Agricultural development. ,Development policies. ,Mathematical models. ,Social accounting. ,Poverty Egypt. ,TMD ,

A CGE model for Malawi

This paper provides a detailed documentation of an applied CGE model of Malawi – the first ever for Malawi – developed in the context of the project “Collaborative Research and Capacity Strengthening for Multi-Sector Policy Analysis in Malawi and Southern Africa.” The purpose of this paper is to serve as a source of background information for analysts using the model in the context of the current project and in the future. The model is built around a 1998 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Malawi, which was developed in the context of the current project, is based on data from the 1998 Integrated Household Survey of Malawi. The main parts of the paper are a brief, self-contained summary of the model, and a detailed mathematical model statement, presented in a step-by-step fashion. The Appendices present a mathematical model statement in summary form and the 1998 Malawi SAM.Social accounting Malawi. ,Household surveys Malawi. ,Mathematical models. ,TMD ,

A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are used widely in policy analysis. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to and facilitate the use of CGE models. The paper includes a detailed presentation of a “standard” CGE model (an equation-by-equation description) and its required database. It incorporates features developed in recent years in research projects conducted at IFPRI. These features, which are of particular importance in developing countries, include household consumption of non-marketed (or “home”) commodities, explicit treatment of transaction costs for commodities that enter the market sphere, and a separation between producing activities and commodities that permits any activity to produce multiple commodities and any commodity to be produced by multiple activities. The paper discusses the implementation of the model in GAMS (the General Algebraic Modeling System) and is accompanied by a self-extracting zip file, which includes the GAMS files for the model, sample databases, simulations, solution reports, and a SAM aggregation program. Although the paper provides a standardized framework for analysis, the analyst is not forced to make “one-size-fits-all” assumptions. The GAMS code is written in a manner that gives the analyst considerable flexibility in model specification.Household consumption ,economic policies ,mathematical models ,TMD ,

Structural adjustment, agriculture, and deforestation in the Sumatera regional economy

The Asian financial crisis led to a major devaluation of the Indonesian exchange rate, macro instability, and the need for a “structural adjustment” program. The real devaluation affects prices throughout the economy and has a major impact on growth, production, deforestation, and income distribution in the Sumatera region. This paper uses computable general equilibrium (CGE) models —a national model and a regional model of Sumatera— that focus on agriculture to explore the impact of a real devaluation on the economy of Sumatera. The model incorporates commodity and factor market linkages between Sumatera, the rest of Indonesia, and the world (through commodity trade). We analyze a possible policy response of imposing an export tax of 5-20 percent on processed wood to discourage further deforestation in the region. The results show that the proposed export tax reduces production of raw timber and processed wood, but at the cost of lowering exports and hence making the macro adjustment more difficult. Given the current situation, it is impossible to predict exactly how the resolution of the current macro crisis will unfold. We model two alternative macro adjustment scenarios that should bracket the likely response of the Sumatera region to the devaluation and structural adjustment program. In the first, we assume that regional investment is a proportion of regional aggregate income (or regional absorption), and that the adjustment burden is shared proportionately between aggregate consumption and investment. In the second, regional savings and investment are assumed to fall more, as the region's trade balance is forced to improve dramatically to reflect the large required changes in the national trade balance.Deforestation Indonesia. ,Economic conditions. ,Equilibrium (Economics) Models. ,Indonesia Economic conditions. ,TMD ,

The impact of alternative development strategies on growth and distribution

Addressing longer-term issues of economic development in Egypt, the paper employs a dynamically recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the outcomes associated with two types of development approaches over the period 1998-2012. One is a targeted sector development approach, and the second is a more broad-based development approach. The results indicate that, when agricultural exports remain relatively low, promoting the Egyptian textile sector is a win-win scenario in terms of rapid growth and equity. In addition, adopting policies that maintain agricultural prices leads to rapid growth and a general improvement of the distribution of income among households. A crucial policy objectives for achieving rapid and egalitarian growth for the Egyptian economy is the ability to secure improved access to international textile markets and the successful expansion of agricultural exports.Economic development Egypt. ,Equilibrium (Economics) ,Income distribution Egypt ,

Land reform in Zimbabwe

There is widespread agreement on the need for land reform in Zimbabwe as a means of reducing poverty. This paper assesses the potential consequences of a land-reform scheme that draws on proposals from Zimbabwe's government in 1998 and 1999. The authors analyze the impact of the reform on resettled farm households and as a development project for which they conduct cost-benefit analysis. The analysis, which considers costs and benefits during a 15-year period, relies on a set of models of family farms that are typical of those that would benefit from land redistribution. The cost-benefit analysis is more comprehensive, also considering the different costs and benefits that affect the government. The results of the analysis indicate that a government-supported land reform could be economically viable under what the authors consider as realistic assumptions regarding the performance of the beneficiaries and the costs that will be faced by the government and other stakeholders. Land reform can generate sustainable livelihoods for the beneficiaries. If viewed as a project, the NPV of the reform is positive for a discount rate that is as high as 20%. The project can also increase employment in the agricultural sector. The analysis takes a long-run perspective, covering a 15-year period. During the first resettlement years, some disruption of agricultural production should be expected. These results are preliminary and based on a partial equilibrium perspective. They are driven by the assumption that the land reform is carried out in a manner that allows farmers on the resettled lands to achieve their productive potential. Such an outcome depends critically on the assumption that the farmers are able to operate in an enabling environment, including critical government support, especially during years 1-5.TMD ,Land capability for agriculture. ,Land use Zimbabwe. ,Land use Economic aspects. ,Rate of return. ,Sustainable livelihoods. ,Poverty alleviation Zimbabwe. ,Agriculture and state. ,Farm income. ,Government spending policy. ,Agricultural productivity. ,