Extended fault inversion with random slipmaps: a resolution test for the 2012 Mw 7.6 Nicoya, Costa Rica earthquake

Inversions for the full slip distribution of earthquakes provide detailed models of earthquake sources, but stability and non-uniqueness of the inversions is a major concern. The problem is underdetermined in any realistic setting, and significantly different slip distributions may translate to fairly similar seismograms. In such circumstances, inverting for a single best model may become overly dependent on the details of the procedure. Instead, we propose to perform extended fault inversion trough falsification. We generate a representative set of heterogeneous slipmaps, compute their forward predictions, and falsify inappropriate trial models that do not reproduce the data within a reasonable level of mismodelling. The remainder of surviving trial models forms our set of coequal solutions. The solution set may contain only members with similar slip distributions, or else uncover some fundamental ambiguity such as, for example, different patterns of main slip patches. For a feasibility study, we use teleseismic body wave recordings from the 2012 September 5 Nicoya, Costa Rica earthquake, although the inversion strategy can be applied to any type of seismic, geodetic or tsunami data for which we can handle the forward problem. We generate 10 000 pseudo-random, heterogeneous slip distributions assuming a von Karman autocorrelation function, keeping the rake angle, rupture velocity and slip velocity function fixed. The slip distribution of the 2012 Nicoya earthquake turns out to be relatively well constrained from 50 teleseismic waveforms. Two hundred fifty-two slip models with normalized L1-fit within 5 per cent from the global minimum from our solution set. They consistently show a single dominant slip patch around the hypocentre. Uncertainties are related to the details of the slip maximum, including the amount of peak slip (2–3.5 m), as well as the characteristics of peripheral slip below 1 m. Synthetic tests suggest that slip patterns such as Nicoya may be a fortunate case, while it may be more difficult to unambiguously reconstruct more distributed slip from teleseismic data