Neural Networks, Logistic Regression, and Calibration: A Reply

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68566/2/10.1177_0272989X9801800414.pd

Simultaneous aortic and renal artery reconstruction: Evolution of an eighteen-year experience

AbstractPurpose: We reviewed an 18-year experience with combined abdominal aortic and renal artery reconstruction (AOR) with a particular focus on patients' clinical risk profile and surgical results in contemporary practice as compared with earlier experience.Methods: One hundred seventy patients underwent AOR during the interval January 1, 1976 to June 30, 1994. To examine parameters representative of current practice, the cohort was divided into group I patients (n = 110) treated before 1990 and group II (n = 60) treated between 1990 and 1994. Median follow-up duration for the entire cohort was 8.4 ± 0.6 years. Renal artery reconstruction patency and patient survival rates were calculated by life-table methods. Logistic and Cox regression analysis were used to determine predictors of perioperative and long-term morbidity/mortality rates.Results: Although demographic features changed little over the review period, the detection (56% vs 73%, p = 0.03) and treatment with percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty/coronary artery bypass grafting (11% vs 40%, p = 0.0001) of associated coronary artery disease were more frequent in group II versus group I patients. Alternatively, renal insufficiency was more frequent in group I patients. The operative mortality rate for the entire cohort was 6.5% (group I = 9% vs group II = 2%, p = 0.06). Changing trends of surgical techniques over the review period included (group I vs II, respectively) increased use of bilateral simultaneous renal artery repair (12% vs 25%, p < 0.005) and transaortic endarterectomy as the renal artery reconstruction technique (3% vs 25%, p < 0.0001). Favorable response in blood pressure control was noted in 68% of group II patients. The cumulative 5-year survival rate for all patients was 75% with an initial serum creatinine of 2.0 mg/dl or greater being the only negative predictor of late survival after regression analysis.Conclusion: The current operative mortality rate for AOR is in the range anticipated for aortic surgery alone, and this appears to be related to improved detection and treatment of associated coronary artery disease and intervention before major deterioration in renal function. These findings coupled with currently available natural history data relative to renovascular disease justify an aggressive approach with AOR when significant renal artery stenosis is detected during evaluation of aortic disease. (J VASC SURG 1995;21:916-25.

Renal artery reconstruction for the preservation of renal function

AbstractPurpose: We reviewed a 13-year experience with an emphasis on long-term survival and renal function response when renal artery reconstruction (RAR) was performed primarily for the preservation or restoration of renal function in patients who had atherosclerotic renovascular disease.Methods: From January 1, 1980, to June 30, 1993, 139 patients underwent RAR for renal function salvage and were retrospectively reviewed. Inclusion criteria were either preoperative serum creatinine level >2.0 mg/dl (67% of patients) or RAR to the entire functioning renal mass irrespective of baseline renal function. Patient survival was calculated by life-table methods. Cox regression analysis was used to determine relative risk (RR) estimates for the late outcomes of continued deterioration of renal function and late survival after RAR. A logistic regression model was used to evaluate variables associated with perioperative complications.Results: Clinical characteristics of the cohort were notable for advanced cardiac (history of congestive heart failure, 27%; angina, 22%; previous myocardial infarction, 19%) and renal disease (serum creatinine level <2.0 mg/dl, 33%; 2.0 mg/dl to 3.0 mg/dl, 40%, >3.0 mg/dl, 27%). Cardiac disease was the principle cause of early (6 of 11 operative deaths) and late death. Operative management consisted of aortorenal bypass in 47%, extraanatomic bypass in 45%, and endarterectomy in 8%; 45% of patients required combined aortic and RAR. The operative mortality rate was 8%; significant perioperative renal dysfunction occurred in 10%. Major operative morbidity was associated with increasing azotemia (RR = 2.1; p = 0.001; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3 to 4.7 for each 1.0 mg/dl increase in baseline creatinine level). Of those patients who had a baseline creatinine level ≥2.0 mg/dl, 54% had ≥20% reduction in creatinine level after RAR. Late follow-up data were available for 87% of operative survivors at a mean duration of 4 years (range, 6 weeks to 12.6 years). Actuarial survival at 5 years was 52% ± 5%. Continued deterioration in renal function occurred in 24% of patients who survived operation, and eventual dialysis was required in 15%. Deterioration of renal function after RAR was associated with increasing levels of preoperative creatinine (RR = 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2 to 1.8; p = 0.001 for each 1.0 mg/dl increment in baseline creatinine level), and inversely related to early postoperative improvement in creatinine level (RR = 0.41; 95% CI, 0.2 to 0.9; p = 0.04).Conclusions: Intervention before major deterioration in renal function and an aggressive posture toward the frequently associated coronary artery disease are necessary to improve long-term results when RAR is performed for renal function salvage. (J Vasc Surg 1996;24:371-82.

The effect of antipsychotic medication on sexual function and serum prolactin levels in community-treated schizophrenic patients: results from the Schizophrenia Trial of Aripiprazole (STAR) study (NCT00237913)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effect of antipsychotics for the treatment of schizophrenia in a community based study on sexual function and prolactin levels comparing the use of aripiprazole and standard of care (SOC), which was a limited choice of three widely used and available antipsychotics (olanzapine, quetiapine or risperidone) (The Schizophrenia Trial of Aripiprazole [STAR] study [NCT00237913]).</p> <p>Method</p> <p>This open-label, 26-week, multi-centre, randomised study compared aripiprazole to SOC (olanzapine, quetiapine or risperidone) in patients with schizophrenia (DSM-IV-TR criteria). The primary effectiveness variable was the mean total score of the Investigator Assessment Questionnaire (IAQ) at Week 26. The outcome research variables included the Arizona Sexual Experience scale (ASEX). This along with the data collected on serum prolactin levels at week 4, 8, 12, 18 and 26 will be the focus of this paper.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 555 patients were randomised to receive aripiprazole (n = 284) or SOC (n = 271). Both treatment groups experienced improvements in sexual function from baseline ASEX assessments. However at 8 weeks the aripiprazole treatment group reported significantly greater improvement compared with the SOC group (p = 0.007; OC). Although baseline mean serum prolactin levels were similar in the two treatment groups (43.4 mg/dL in the aripiprazole group and 42.3 mg/dL in the SOC group, p = NS) at Week 26 OC, mean decreases in serum prolactin were 34.2 mg/dL in the aripiprazole group, compared with 13.3 mg/dL in the SOC group (p < 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The study findings suggest that aripiprazole has the potential to reduce sexual dysfunction, which in turn might improve patient compliance.</p

Multicountry burden of chronic hepatitis C viral infection among those aware of their diagnosis: a patient survey.

BackgroundThe World Health Organization has called for global and regional assessments of the burden of hepatitis C (HCV) along with country-specific patient profiles to better inform healthcare policy. The present investigated the characteristics and burden of patients reporting a diagnosis of HCV infection in the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, urban China, and Japan using a consistent methodology of patient-reported surveys.MethodsThe 2010 5EU (N = 57,805), 2009 US (N = 75,000), 2008/2009 Japan (N = 37,683), and 2009/2010 urban China (N = 33,261) waves of the National Health and Wellness Survey were used as the data source. Within each country, patients with a self-reported diagnosis of HCV were compared with those who did not report a diagnosis of HCV on sociodemographics, health behaviors, comorbidities, and health outcomes (e.g., Short Form-12v2). The effect of HCV was examined using regression analysis applying sampling weights.ResultsThe prevalence of HCV ranged from 0.26% (China) to 1.42% (Italy). Patients in Japan and Italy (61.60 and 61.02 years, respectively) were the oldest, while patients in the US were the most likely to be obese (39.31%) and have concomitant anxiety (38.43%) and depression (46.05%) compared with other countries. Pooling countries and adjusting for sociodemographics, health behaviors, and comorbidities, HCV was associated with significantly lower physical component summary scores (b = -2.51) and health utilities (b = -0.04) and greater overall work impairment (b = 8.79), physician visits (b = 2.91), and emergency department visits (b = 0.30) (all pConclusionsHCV was associated with a significant humanistic and economic burden. These results suggest that the manifestation of the HCV burden, and the profile of the patients themselves, varied dramatically by country. Successful disease management should be cognizant of region-specific unmet needs

Neural Network Assessment of Perioperative Cardiac Risk in Vascular Surgery Patients

Neural networks were developed to predict perioperative cardiac complications with data from 567 vascular surgery patients. Neural network scores were based on cardiac risk factors and dipyridamole thallium results. These scores were converted into like lihood ratios that predicted cardiac risk. The prognostic accuracy of the neural networks was similar to that of logistic regression models (ROC areas 76.0% vs 75.8%), but their calibration was better. Logistic regression overestimated event rates in a group of high-risk patients (predicted event rate, 64%; observed rate 30%; n = 50, p < 0.001). On a validation set of 514 patients, the neural networks still had ROC similar areas to those of logistic regression (68.3% vs 67.5%), but logistic regression again overesti mated event rates for a group of high-risk patients. The calibration difference was reflected in the Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistic (18.6 for the neural networks, 45.0 for logistic regression). The neural networks successfully estimated perioperative cardiac risk with better calibration than comparable logistic regression models. Key words. neural networks; logistic regression; likelihood ratio; Bayes' theorem; cardiac risk. (Med Decis Making 1998;18:70-75

Development and validation of a clinical scoring system for predicting risk of HCC in asymptomatic individuals seropositive for anti-HCV antibodies.

BACKGROUND: The development of a risk assessment tool for long-term hepatocellular carcinoma risk would be helpful in identifying high-risk patients and providing information of clinical consultation. METHODS: The model derivation and validation cohorts consisted of 975 and 572 anti-HCV seropositives, respectively. The model included age, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), the ratio of aspirate aminotransferase to ALT, serum HCV RNA levels and cirrhosis status and HCV genotype. Two risk prediction models were developed: one was for all-anti-HCV seropositives, and the other was for anti-HCV seropositives with detectable HCV RNA. The Cox's proportional hazards models were utilized to estimate regression coefficients of HCC risk predictors to derive risk scores. The cumulative HCC risks in the validation cohort were estimated by Kaplan-Meier methods. The area under receiver operating curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the performance of the risk models. RESULTS: All predictors were significantly associated with HCC. The summary risk scores of two models derived from the derivation cohort had predictability of HCC risk in the validation cohort. The summary risk score of the two risk prediction models clearly divided the validation cohort into three groups (p<0.001). The AUROC for predicting 5-year HCC risk in the validation cohort was satisfactory for the two models, with 0.73 and 0.70, respectively. CONCLUSION: Scoring systems for predicting HCC risk of HCV-infected patients had good validity and discrimination capability, which may triage patients for alternative management strategies