Coordination Failures under Incomplete Information and Global Games

Carlsson and van Damme (1991, 93) presented a notion of a global game, which is an incomplete information game where the actual payoff structure is affected by a realization of a common shock and where each player gets noisy private information of the shock. For n -person symmetric games with two possible actions characterized by strategic complementarity, they showed that equilibrium play in a global game with vanishing noise is uniquely determined. The concept of global games is important not only as a theory of the most refined notion of equilibrium but also as a theory of coordination failures under private information. From this viewpoint, this paper makes the theory of global games more general and more applicable to such problems. The implications of the theory of global games are investigated in two specific models: a speculative attack model and a network externality model. It is shown that both the monetary authority in the speculative attack model and the central planner in the network externality model will prefer the equilibrium in a global game with small noise to the worst equilibrium in the corresponding complete information game. Therefore, they will welcome the existence of small noise, if they apply mini-max principle to multiple equilibrium problems.global game, coordination failure, speculative attack, network externality

Why Has the Border Effect in the Japanese Market Declined?

This paper analyzes the causes of the decline in Japan’s border effect by estimating gravity equations for Japan’s international and interregional trade in four machinery industries (electrical, general, precision, and transportation machinery). In the estimation, we explicitly take account of firms’ networks. We find that ownership relations usually enhance trade between two regions (countries), and also find that we can explain 35% of the decline in Japan’s border effect from 1980 to 1995 in the electrical machinery industry by the increase of international networks. JEL Classification numbers: F14; F17; F21; L14.Gravity Model; Border Effect; Networks.

The Performance of Foreign Firms and the Macroeconomic Impact of FDI

In this paper, I examine the macroeconomic impact of inward FDI in Japan. From a general equilibrium point of view of the macroeconomy, probably the most important host country benefit of inward FDI is improvements in productivity caused by the inflow of managerial resources. In the first part of this paper, which is largely based on the results of Fukao, Ito and Kwon (2005), I review the evidence suggesting that inward FDI raises the average total factor productivity of firms in Japan. In the second part, using a general equilibrium model of an open macroeconomy, I simulate the macroeconomic impact of an increase in the inward FDI stock. The results suggest that if Prime Minister Abe's goal on inward FDI, which is to increase the inward FDI stock to 5 percent of GDP by the end of 2010 is achieved, this will help to raise Japan's GDP by 0.226 percent and real wage rates by 0.156 percent. Dividend payments abroad by foreign-owned firms and the fall in Japan's foreign investment income caused by the inflow of capital (or the decline in capital outflows), will make the increase in Japan's GNP (which includes net foreign investment income) smaller than the increase in GDP. The increase in GNP will be 0.125 percent of GDP.

Why Has the Border Effect in the Japanese Market Declined?: The Role of Business Networks in East Asia

This paper analyzes the causes of the decline in Japanfs border effect by estimating gravity equations for Japanfs international and interregional trade in four machinery industries (electrical, general, precision, and transportation machinery). In the estimation, we explicitly take account of firmsf networks. We find that ownership relations usually enhance trade between two regions (countries), and also find that we can explain 35% of the decline in Japanfs border effect from 1980 to 1995 in the electrical machinery industry by the increase of international networks.Gravity Model, Border Effect, Networks

Inward Foreign Direct Investments and Productivity Growth in Japan

Firstly, this paper shows that before M&A the foreign firms value the facility and scale economy in target firms which have greater capital stock and sales in the host country. Secondly, out-in M&A firms acquired by foreign firms saw an improvement in their business efficiency after the acquisition. This finding suggests that out-in M&As involve a transfer of business resources or technological knowledge that help to further lift the efficiency of firms.FDI, Total Factor Productivity, Merger and acquisition, Selection Hypothesis, Spillover

Expansion Abroad and Jobs at Home - Evidence from Japanese Multinational Enterprises

This paper examines the exporting job hypothesis that expansion of overseas operations of manufacturing multinational enterprises (MNEs) reduces home employment using data for Japanese MNEs. While the existing studies are mainly based on the industry level data, this paper presents the evidence using a newly constructed firm-level panel data set over the period 1991-2002. The evidence does not support the widely-held view in Japanese policy circles that that overseas operations of MNEs expand at the cost of home employment. On the contrary, there is some evidence that overseas operations may have helped to maintain the level of home employment.Multinational Enterprises, FDI, labour demand, Globalisation