Cohesive institutions and political violence

Can institutionalized transfers of resource rents be a source of civil conflict? Are cohesive institutions better in managing distributive conflicts? We study these questions exploiting exogenous variation in revenue disbursements to local governments together with new data on local democratic institutions in Nigeria. We make three contributions. First, we document the existence of a strong link between rents and conflict far away from the location of the actual resource. Second, we show that distributive conflict is highly organized involving political militias and concentrated in the extent to which local governments are non-cohesive. Third, we show that democratic practice in form having elected local governments significantly weakens the causal link between rents and political violence. We document that elections (vis-a-vis appointments), by producing more cohesive institutions, vastly limit the extent to which distributional conflict between groups breaks out following shocks to the available rents. Throughout, we confirm these findings using individual level survey data

Fast track to growth? Railway access, population growth and local displacement in 19th century Switzerland

We study the effect of railway access on population growth in 19th century Switzerland. Our analysis is based on geo-referenced railway network information and an inconsequential units IV approach. Gaining direct railway access increased annual population growth by 0.4 percentage points, while municipalities in close vicinity but no direct access (i.e. 2-10 km distance) experienced a growth slump of similar magnitude. We interpret these findings as evidence of highly localised displacement effects related to railway connections

Cohesive Institutions and political violence

Can revenue sharing of resource rents be a source of distributive conflict? Can co- hesive institutions avoid such conflicts? We exploit exogenous variation in local gov- ernment revenues and new data on local democratic institutions in Nigeria to study these questions. We find a strong link between rents and conflict. Conflicts are highly organized and concentrated in districts and time-periods with unelected local govern- ments. Once local governments are elected these relationships are much weaker. We argue that elections produce more cohesive institutions that help limit distributional conflict between groups. Throughout, we confirm these findings using individual level survey data

Does Proximity to Foreign Invested Firms Stimulate Productivity Growth of Domestic Firms? Firm-level Evidence from Vietnam

Much attention has been paid to foreign investment spillovers in the literature, since inward foreign direct investment is regarded as a key engine of industrial growth and technological progress. However, little clear evidence has been found with regard to the relevance of geographic proximity for spillover effects, owing to a lack of location specific information. We therefore study the spatial component of spillover effects from foreign direct investment on total factor productivity (TFP) of domestic manufacturing firms in Vietnam from 2005 to 2010. Firm level TFP is estimated by applying a semi-parametric method. We geo-reference firms by using the smallest administrative unit (ward) and compile a unique data set containing information of firms location to exploit the variation in the presence of foreign firms around each domestic firm over time. Benefiting from enhanced spatial accuracy over previous studies, our empirical results using a first differenced two-stage least squares estimator are threefold. First, they show positive local spillover effects of foreign investment on domestic firms in the same industry. The effects are strongest and highly significant within a radius of 2 km to 10 km, and they show a distinct decay pattern within 10-50 km. Second, small and unproductive firms benefit disproportionately from the presence of foreign firms in their neighborhoods. Third, manufacturing vertical spillovers are also localized while vertical spillovers from the service sector are less geographically restricted

Subclinical giant cell arteritis in new onset polymyalgia rheumatica:A systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data

Objectives: To determine the prevalence and predictors of subclinical giant cell arteritis (GCA) in patients with newly diagnosed polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR). Methods: PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science Core Collection were systematically searched (date of last search July 14, 2021) for any published information on any consecutively recruited cohort reporting the prevalence of GCA in steroid-naïve patients with PMR without cranial or ischemic symptoms. We combined prevalences across populations in a random-effect meta-analysis. Potential predictors of subclinical GCA were identified by mixed-effect logistic regression using individual patient data (IPD) from cohorts screened with PET/(CT). Results: We included 13 cohorts with 566 patients from studies published between 1965 to 2020. Subclinical GCA was diagnosed by temporal artery biopsy in three studies, ultrasound in three studies, and PET/(CT) in seven studies. The pooled prevalence of subclinical GCA across all studies was 23% (95% CI 14%-36%, I2=84%) for any screening method and 29% in the studies using PET/(CT) (95% CI 13%-53%, I2=85%) (n=266 patients). For seven cohorts we obtained IPD for 243 patients screened with PET/(CT). Inflammatory back pain (OR 2.73, 1.32-5.64), absence of lower limb pain (OR 2.35, 1.05-5.26), female sex (OR 2.31, 1.17-4.58), temperature >37° (OR 1.83, 0.90-3.71), weight loss (OR 1.83, 0.96-3.51), thrombocyte count (OR 1.51, 1.05-2.18), and haemoglobin level (OR 0.80, 0.64-1.00) were most strongly associated with subclinical GCA in the univariable analysis but not C-reactive protein (OR 1.00, 1.00-1.01) or erythrocyte sedimentation rate (OR 1.01, 1.00-1.02). A prediction model calculated from these variables had an area under the curve of 0.66 (95% CI 0.55-0.75). Conclusion: More than a quarter of patients with PMR may have subclinical GCA. The prediction model from the most extensive IPD set has only modest diagnostic accuracy. Hence, a paradigm shift in the assessment of PMR patients in favour of implementing imaging studies should be discussed

Fast Track to Growth? The Impact of Railway Access on Regional Economic Development in 19th Century Switzerland

We study the effect of railway access on regional development in 19th century Switzerland. The identification strategy in our analysis of geo-referenced railway network information, population growth rates, sectoral work shares and body height, relies on panel data techniques and an inconsequential units IV approach. Gaining railway access increased annual population growth by 0.4 percentage points compared to unconnected municipalities, mainly via the local migration balance. Railway improvements also promoted structural shifts from the primary to the secondary/tertiary sectors, and marginally accelerated body height growth

Does Proximity to Foreign Invested Firms Stimulate Productivity Growth of Domestic Firms? Firm-level Evidence from Vietnam

Inward foreign direct investment (FDI) is regarded as a key engine of industrial growth and technological progress, especially in emerging markets. Regarding the relevance of geographic proximity between foreign and domestic firms for FDI spillover effects, there is yet little clear evidence, owing to a lack of precise location specific firm-level data. This paper presents the so far spatially most detailed Analysis of FDI spillover effects by geo-referencing the census of Vietnamese enterprises for the period 2005 to 2010, allowing us to measure the changing presence of foreign invested firms around each domestic firm. We apply a first-differenced two-stageleast-squares estimator to identify spillover effects from proximate FDI exposure on TFP growth of domestic manufacturing firms. We find positive and significant within-industry (horizontal) spillover effects within radii of 2 to 10 km, that decay beyond. Importantly, in particular small and medium enterprises (SMEs) gain from foreign firms in their vicinity. Furthermore, vertical spillovers through forward and backward linkages to other manufacturing firms are localized, while vertical spillovers from foreign firms in the service sector are less geographically restricted

Fast track to growth? Railway access, population growth and local displacement in 19th century Switzerland

We study the effect of railway access on population growth in 19th century Switzerland. Our analysis is based on geo-referenced railway network information and an inconsequential units IV approach. Gaining direct railway access increased annual population growth by 0.4 percentage points, while municipalities in close vicinity but no direct access (i.e. 2–10 km distance) experienced a growth slump of similar magnitude. We interpret these findings as evidence of highly localised displacement effects related to railway connections