Robust tests for a linear trend with an application to equity indices

In this paper we develop a testing procedure for the presence of a deterministic linear trend in a univariate time series which is robust to whether the series is I(0) or I(1) and requires no knowledge of the form of weak dependence present in the data. Our approach is motivated by the testing procedures of Vogelsang [1998, Econometrica, vol 66, p123–148] and Bunzel and Vogelsang [2005, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol 23, p381–394], but utilises an auxiliary unit root test to switch between critical values in the exact I(1) and I(0) environments, rather than using this unit root test to scale the test statistic as is done in the aforementioned procedures. We show that our proposed tests have uniformly greater local asymptotic power than the tests of Vogelsang (1998) and Bunzel and Vogelsang (2005) when the error process is exact I(1), identical local asymptotic when the error process is I(0), and have better overall local asymptotic power when the error process is near I(1). Our proposed tests also display superior finite sample power to the tests of Vogelsang (1998) and Bunzel and Vogelsang (2005) and are competitive in finite samples with tests designed to be optimal in both the exact I(1) and I(0) environments. We apply our test procedures to a number of equity indices and find that these series appear to have a significant upward deterministic trend, yet are also highly persistent about this long run growth path

Precision identification of high-risk phenotypes and progression pathways in severe malaria without requiring longitudinal data

More than 400,000 deaths from severe malaria (SM) are reported every year, mainly in African children. The diversity of clinical presentations associated with SM indicates important differences in disease pathogenesis that require specific treatment, and this clinical heterogeneity of SM remains poorly understood. Here, we apply tools from machine learning and model-based inference to harness large-scale data and dissect the heterogeneity in patterns of clinical features associated with SM in 2904 Gambian children admitted to hospital with malaria. This quantitative analysis reveals features predicting the severity of individual patient outcomes, and the dynamic pathways of SM progression, notably inferred without requiring longitudinal observations. Bayesian inference of these pathways allows us assign quantitative mortality risks to individual patients. By independently surveying expert practitioners, we show that this data-driven approach agrees with and expands the current state of knowledge on malaria progression, while simultaneously providing a data-supported framework for predicting clinical risk

Improving the quality of toxicology and environmental health systematic reviews:What journal editors can do

Systematic reviews are fast increasing in prevalence in the toxicology and environmental health literature. However, how well these complex research projects are being conducted and reported is unclear. Since editors have an essential role in ensuring the scientific quality of manuscripts being published in their journals, a workshop was convened where editors, systematic review practitioners, and research quality control experts could discuss what editors can do to ensure the systematic reviews they publish are of sufficient scientific quality. Interventions were explored along four themes: setting standards; reviewing protocols; optimizing editorial workflows; and measuring the effectiveness of editorial interventions. In total, 58 editorial interventions were proposed. Of these, 26 were shortlisted for being potentially effective, and 5 were prioritized as short-term actions that editors could relatively easily take to improve the quality of published systematic reviews. Recent progress in improving systematic reviews is summarized, and outstanding challenges to further progress are highlighted

Toll-like receptor polymorphisms and cerebral malaria: <it>TLR2 </it>Δ22 polymorphism is associated with protection from cerebral malaria in a case control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In malaria endemic areas, host genetics influence whether a <it>Plasmodium falciparum</it>-infected child develops uncomplicated or severe malaria. TLR2 has been identified as a receptor for <it>P. falciparum</it>-derived glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI), and polymorphisms within the TLR2 gene may affect disease pathogenesis. There are two common polymorphisms in the 5' un-translated region (UTR) of TLR2, a 22 base pair deletion in the first unstranslated exon (Δ22), and a GT dinucleotide repeat in the second intron (GTn).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>These polymorphisms were examined in a Ugandan case control study on children with either cerebral malaria or uncomplicated malaria. Serum cytokine levels were analysed by ELISA, according to genotype and disease status. In vitro TLR2 expression was measured according to genotype.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both Δ22 and GTn polymorphisms were highly frequent, but only Δ22 heterozygosity was associated with protection from cerebral malaria (OR 0.34, 95% confidence intervals 0.16, 0.73). In vitro, heterozygosity for Δ22 was associated with reduced pam3cys inducible TLR2 expression in human monocyte derived macrophages. In uncomplicated malaria patients, Δ22 homozygosity was associated with elevated serum IL-6 (<it>p </it>= 0.04), and long GT repeat alleles were associated with elevated TNF (<it>p </it>= 0.007).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Reduced inducible TLR2 expression may lead to attenuated pro-inflammatory responses, a potential mechanism of protection from cerebral malaria present in individuals heterozygous for the TLR2 Δ22 polymorphism.</p

Genome-wide association studies reveal novel loci associated with pyrethroid and organophosphate resistance in Anopheles gambiae

Resistance to insecticides in Anopheles mosquitoes threatens the effectiveness of malaria control, but the genetics of resistance are only partially understood. We performed a large scale multi-country genome-wide association study of resistance to two widely used insecticides: deltamethrin and pirimiphos-methyl, using sequencing data from An. gambiae and An. coluzzii from ten locations in West Africa. Resistance was highly multi-genic, multiallelic and variable between populations. While the strongest and most consistent association with deltamethrin resistance came from Cyp6aa1, this was based on several independent copy number variants (CNVs) in An. coluzzii, and on a non-CNV haplotype in An. gambiae. For pirimiphos-methyl, signals included Ace1, cytochrome P450s, glutathione S-transferases and the nAChR target site of neonicotinoid insecticides. The regions around Cyp9k1 and the Tep family of immune genes showed evidence of cross-resistance to both insecticides. These locally-varying, multi-allelic patterns highlight the challenges involved in genomic monitoring of resistance, and form the basis for improved surveillance methods

Spread of artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum has emerged in Southeast Asia and now poses a threat to the control and elimination of malaria. Mapping the geographic extent of resistance is essential for planning containment and elimination strategies. METHODS: Between May 2011 and April 2013, we enrolled 1241 adults and children with acute, uncomplicated falciparum malaria in an open-label trial at 15 sites in 10 countries (7 in Asia and 3 in Africa). Patients received artesunate, administered orally at a daily dose of either 2 mg per kilogram of body weight per day or 4 mg per kilogram, for 3 days, followed by a standard 3-day course of artemisinin-based combination therapy. Parasite counts in peripheral-blood samples were measured every 6 hours, and the parasite clearance half-lives were determined. RESULTS: The median parasite clearance half-lives ranged from 1.9 hours in the Democratic Republic of Congo to 7.0 hours at the Thailand-Cambodia border. Slowly clearing infections (parasite clearance half-life >5 hours), strongly associated with single point mutations in the "propeller" region of the P. falciparum kelch protein gene on chromosome 13 (kelch13), were detected throughout mainland Southeast Asia from southern Vietnam to central Myanmar. The incidence of pretreatment and post-treatment gametocytemia was higher among patients with slow parasite clearance, suggesting greater potential for transmission. In western Cambodia, where artemisinin-based combination therapies are failing, the 6-day course of antimalarial therapy was associated with a cure rate of 97.7% (95% confidence interval, 90.9 to 99.4) at 42 days. CONCLUSIONS: Artemisinin resistance to P. falciparum, which is now prevalent across mainland Southeast Asia, is associated with mutations in kelch13. Prolonged courses of artemisinin-based combination therapies are currently efficacious in areas where standard 3-day treatments are failing. (Funded by the U.K. Department of International Development and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01350856.)

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant

AI is a viable alternative to high throughput screening: a 318-target study

: High throughput screening (HTS) is routinely used to identify bioactive small molecules. This requires physical compounds, which limits coverage of accessible chemical space. Computational approaches combined with vast on-demand chemical libraries can access far greater chemical space, provided that the predictive accuracy is sufficient to identify useful molecules. Through the largest and most diverse virtual HTS campaign reported to date, comprising 318 individual projects, we demonstrate that our AtomNet® convolutional neural network successfully finds novel hits across every major therapeutic area and protein class. We address historical limitations of computational screening by demonstrating success for target proteins without known binders, high-quality X-ray crystal structures, or manual cherry-picking of compounds. We show that the molecules selected by the AtomNet® model are novel drug-like scaffolds rather than minor modifications to known bioactive compounds. Our empirical results suggest that computational methods can substantially replace HTS as the first step of small-molecule drug discovery

Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant

SARS-CoV-2 infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries associated with the Delta variant. We assessed RT-PCR swab-positivity in the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in England. We observed sustained exponential growth with average doubling time (June-July 2021) of 25 days driven by complete replacement of Alpha variant by Delta, and by high prevalence at younger less-vaccinated ages. Unvaccinated people were three times more likely than double-vaccinated people to test positive. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ~50% and ~60% during this period in England. Increased social mixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination