Linking international trade and transport - what are the determining factors?

Historically there have been close relations between international trade and international transport. Development in trade is mirrored in the development in international transport. However, it is also well known that patterns of trade changes. The types of commodities that are traded today differ from the commodities that were traded ten years ago. Trade of services has increased and the trad-ing partners have changed. The opening of the European market towards Eastern Europe has changed the spatial pattern of where commodities are exported to and imported from. It is obviously not straightforward to tell how these changes influence the development in international transport. This paper investigates the impacts of some of the factors that play a role in the development of in-ternational freight transport. The included factors are trade of different commodities and countries, the weight of traded commodities, the model of transport and the weight of the conveyed goods. We do this using a decomposition method on Danish trade data over a period from 1988 to 2003 and a link from these data to data about international transports on heavy vehicles. We observe that the development in transport is composed of varying changes in the mentioned fac-tors of which some imply increasing transport and some imply declining transport. This finding in-dicates the importance of taking proper account of the various factors in modelling freight transport and the relation between freight and economic trade.

Linking international trade and transport - what are the determining factors?

Historically there have been close relations between international trade and international transport. Development in trade is mirrored in the development in international transport. However, it is also well known that patterns of trade changes. The types of commodities that are traded today differ from the commodities that were traded ten years ago. Trade of services has increased and the trad-ing partners have changed. The opening of the European market towards Eastern Europe has changed the spatial pattern of where commodities are exported to and imported from. It is obviously not straightforward to tell how these changes influence the development in international transport. This paper investigates the impacts of some of the factors that play a role in the development of in-ternational freight transport. The included factors are trade of different commodities and countries, the weight of traded commodities, the model of transport and the weight of the conveyed goods. We do this using a decomposition method on Danish trade data over a period from 1988 to 2003 and a link from these data to data about international transports on heavy vehicles. We observe that the development in transport is composed of varying changes in the mentioned fac-tors of which some imply increasing transport and some imply declining transport. This finding in-dicates the importance of taking proper account of the various factors in modelling freight transport and the relation between freight and economic trade

The Use of Mechanisms in Congestion Pricing

Transport economists have for a long time focussed on efficiency. A means of achieving efficiency is to price transport at its social marginal costs -- using Pigou taxes in the case of externalities. However, it is very difficult to obtain the information needed in order to define correct tax levels. New Road Pricing technological instruments makes it possible to implement marginal cost pricing in transport. However, the question of how to find the right level of Pigou prices remains unresolved. In this paper some of the practical implications of using a new theoretical basis for congestion pricing are analysed

Three approaches to calculate economic impacts from pricing schemes on heavy vehicles

Using pricing or fees can to a very large extent be compared to infrastructure investment because both change the costs of transport between two locations. These effects can be of considerable size and it is thus important to know what the effects are and where they occur. Most of the literature on HVF is concerned with the practical implementation of a HVF, the degree of optimal pricing of a proposed HVF and the traffic impacts. This is interesting because a vast amount of literature exists investigating the relationship between transport and land-use as well as the relationship between infrastructure investment and (regional) economic impacts. This paper aims at describing and comparing a number of studies of the relationship between heavy vehicle fees (HVF) and the economy. Three different types of models used to assess economic impacts are described: system dynamic models (SDM), spatial general equilibrium models (SCGE) and input output models (I/O); also various combinations of these model types can be applied. The general description of these different models types is supplemented with three case studies using I/O and SCGE models on HVFs in Germany, Denmark and Norway. The results from these case studies show similarities in the types and size of the results. Especially the price effects and employment effects are similar in all case studies

Forecasting developments of the Car fleet in the Altrans model

The paper presents a submodel to the model complex ALTRANS (ALternative TRANSport systems). The model is thoroughly described in Kveiborg (1999). The Altrans model is a model developed for analysing the transport consequences of different policy proposals. The model is based on the transport behaviour of individuals in Denmark, and give among other things estimates of traffic performance by mode, and car ownership. The model presented here uses this information to calculate the energy consumption and the emissions stemming from the transport in cars. The paper includes a brief presentation of the overall model complex, and a slightly more thorough analysis of the historical development of the Danish car fleet. This development forms the basis for the model development. The general idea of the model and estimation results are discussed. Generally speaking the development in the car fleet is composed of three parts: the existing fleet, the purchase of new cars and the scrappage of old cars. The development is split into different groups of vehicles based on the age, weight and the type of fuel usage of the cars. Different exogenous variables are used in explaining the developments in both purchase and scrappage rates. Splitting the developments into these different groups makes it possible to calculate the energy consumption more accurately

Determining factors in the development of road freight transport

To answer the question: What are the determinants of the development in the freight transport? a model, linking the general economic development to the development in the freight transport, has been developed. The model consists of several intermediate steps, each linking one intermediate factor with the next, and each having a dynamic element being able to move the development away from the overall trend. The general driving factors are the economic growth in 19 different production sectors in the (Danish) economy (imports are also included). The production values in these sectors are linked to the production of 23 goods categories measured in weight terms (tonnes). The analysed determinants for these developments are competitive prices in the goods production sectors, and some technological trends. The crucial element in the model is the linking of the production in tonnes to the transport measured as tonnes, usually termed: The handling factor. The handling factor can be interpreted as an indicator of the structure of the production chains in an economy. Changes in the handling factor is due to changes in the location of the factories, centralised and decentralised production plants, more/fewer subcontractors, changes in the transport prices etc. In general this factor is decreasing due to one or more of the above mentioned influencing elements. However, in the model only price differences between the transport sector and the production sectors are used. These are used as proxy variables for all the above-mentioned influencing factors. The amount of transport – the traffic performance – is developed through a dynamic calculation of the average length of transport and of the average load of each transport disaggregated on the different goods categories. Again transport prices play an important role in the development of these two factors. The final outcome of the model is a calculation of the environmental impacts of the predicted development in the freight transport. The impacts are calculated as energy consumption, CO2, SO2 and NOX emissions. Having these measures as the overall target of the model, the model can be used as an indication of the sustainability of different economic changes proposed in the political system, and evaluated in general macro-economic model systems. One such model system is a Danish macro-economic model ADAM, used for evaluation of e.g. the Budget, and other proposals of fiscal changes. To be able to estimate the different intermediate links, two primary datasets have been used. One dataset with information on the production in 19 different production sectors and 23 different goods categories, measured both in fixed prices and in tonnes. The second dataset consists of information gathered in an annual transport survey of the freight transport on lorries in Denmark. This dataset contains information on the length of haul, the weight of the haul in the goods categories, and on different lorry sizes. Both datasets covers the period from 1980 to 1992. The data is used in standard time series estimations. The paper presents the model, and discusses the different (mainly macro-economic) impacts on the different elements in the model, and finally presents some examples of calculations that can be made with the model. However, the primary interest is on the model development, and the discussion of the possibilities of describing developments in the freight transport as a consequence of the development in the economic sectors

Explaining the decoupling of freight traffic growth and economic growth

In recent years we have in many European countries seen a decoupling of the growth in freight traffic (vehicle km) from economic growth. A similar decoupling has not been seen in freight transport (tons km).In this paper we analyse the historical development in freight transport and freight traffic using a decomposition methods described in Fosgerau and Kveiborg (2004). The growth in freight traffic can be attributed to various factors with economic growth as an important factor, but there are also important explanations caused by the development in vehicle size, average load and average length of trips as well as the logistical element of freight transport described by the handling factor, which links produced amounts in tons to tons conveyed. Through the analysis we point out the impact these factors have on overall development in freight traffic and freight transport. We further demonstrate that overall freight traffic growth is a consequence of often opposite pointing growth effects in the underlying factors. We find that the primary reason for the decoupling of freight traffic growth and economic growth can be attributed to growth in vehicle sizes, increasing average load and less empty running with the vehicles

Hvordan påvirkes trafiksikkerheden i Europa af tiltag fra EU?

EU har lovgivet om hvordan medlemslandene skal forbedre trafiksikkerheden på de Europæiske veje. Lovgivning omfatter bl.a. en række procedurer, der skal understøtte, at trafiksikkerhedsmæssige mangler på vejene bliver opdaget. EU ønsker stadig at forbedre trafiksikkerheden og har en forventning om, at en opdatering og justering af lovgivningen kan understøtte det. Derfor er der igangsat et arbejde, der skal ende op i et nyt direktivforslag. Artiklen gennemgår et væsentligt skridt i dette forberedende arbejde - en analyse af det konkrete forslag. Analysen ser på omfanget af problem, hvad der er årsagen til, at der er et problem, hvad kan der gøres for at reducere eller fjerne disse årsager samt hvad konsekvenserne vil være set ud fra dels antallet af dræbte og tilskadekomne og dels ud fra andre vurderingskriterier som effektivitet og økonomi. Artiklen gennemgår EU’s metode til denne type analyser og illustrerer det med dette konkrete eksempel

Samfundsøkonomiske gevinster ved samtidig projektgennemførelse af store anlægsprojekter: Med ny bane og motorvejsudvidelse på Vestfyn som illustrativt eksempel

Der er konstant gang i planlægningen af store anlægsprojekter rundt omkring i landet. For nogle af disse projekter er der sammenfald med geografien. Dette kan både give anledning til nogle koordinationsmæssige udfordringer, men i endnu større grad kan det give anledning til samfundsøkonomiske gevinster ved f.eks. at der kan etableres fælles byggepladser og færre gener for trafikanter og omgivelser