Trends in extreme weather events in Europe: implications for national and European Union adaptation strategies

This report, based on a comprehensive collection of scientific data from the last 20 years, provides a rallying call for Europe’s policy makers to come together to devise common strategies to help mitigate the physical, human and economic costs of the rising number of extreme weather events in Europe, such as extreme heat and cold, extremes of precipitation, storms, winds and surges, and drought. Highlights refer to the nature of the evidence for climate-driven changes in extreme weather in the past, the potential impact of further climate change in altering the pattern of these extremes, and possible adaptation strategies for dealing with extreme weather impacts. It first provides information on extreme weather events and trends in recent decades as well as related impacts upon society. It is followed by an introduction to the scientific background on global warming and weather extremes, and the projections of future trends of meteorological extreme events that emerge from climate models under various scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, approaches to adaptation are introduced and recommendations provided. Readers wishing to obtain full source details for the figures, tables and references are recommended to consult the full report, which also includes more detailed analyses of the climatic conditions in various sub-regions of the EU

Sensitivity of simulated wintertime Arctic atmosphere to vertical resolution in the ARPEGE/IFS model

The current state of the art general circulation models, including several of those used by the IPCC, show considerable disagreement in simulating present day high latitude climate. This is of major concern and reduces the confidence in future model projections of high latitude climate. We here employ ideal vertical profiles of temperature and wind from turbulence resolving simulations to perform a priori studies of the first order eddy-viscosity closure scheme employed in the ARPEGE/IFS model. This reveals that the coarse vertical resolution (31 layers) of the model cannot be expected to realistically resolve the Arctic stable boundary layer. The curvature of the Arctic inversion and thus also the vertical turbulent exchange processes cannot be reproduced by the coarse vertical mesh employed. Correct representation of boundary layer turbulent exchange processes is a critical factor in climate simulations. To investigate how turbulent vertical exchange processes in the Arctic boundary layer are represented by the model parameterization a simulation with high vertical resolution (90 layers) in the lower part of the atmosphere is performed. Results from the model simulations are validated against data from the ERA-40 reanalysis and from in situ data from the SHEBA project. The dependence of the surface air temperature on surface winds, surface energy fluxes, inversion stability and boundary layer height is investigated. The coarse resolution run reveals considerable biases in these parameters, and in their physical relations to surface air temperature. In the simulation with fine vertical resolution these biases are clearly reduced. The physical relation between governing parameters for the vertical turbulent exchange processes becomes more realistic. The coarse resolution run shows considerable biases in representing the Arctic inversion. By improving the vertical resolution in the lower part of the atmosphere we achieve a realistic simulation of the Arctic inversion. A correct representation of the inversion is important in order to achieve a realistic representation of radiation and cloud processes in the Arctic

Effects of simulated natural variability on Arctic temperature

A five-member ensemble with a coupled atmospheresea ice-ocean model is used to examine the effects of natural variability on climate projections for the Arctic. The individual ensemble members are initialized from a 300 years control experiment, each starting from different strengths and phases of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The ensemble members are integrated for 80 years with a 1% per year increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2. The main findings are that on decadal time scales, multi-model spread of estimated temperature changes in the Arctic may potentially be attributed to internal variability of the climate system. During weak CO2 forcing the internal variability may mask the strength of the anthropogenic signals for several decades. The implications of the findings are that attribution of any Arctic climate change trends calculated over a few decades is difficult

Wintertime cyclone/anticyclone activity over China and its relation to upper tropospheric jets

In this study, the wintertime cyclone/anticyclone activity and its variability over China are examined based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data from 1948 to 2007. The climatology of the source, path and lysis regions for cyclones/anticyclones is investigated using an automatic tracking algorithm. Apparent asymmetries in source, lysis and path regions are observed between cyclones and anticyclones. The 1948–2007 data exhibit an upward trend in the annual number and a downward trend in the cyclone and anticyclone intensity. The leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of the cyclone transit counts (CTC) for the 1948–2007 period indicates an increase in cyclone activity over northeastern East Asia since the late 1970s that becomes significant in the mid-1980s. The first EOF mode of the anticyclone transit counts (ATC) is a monopole over northern East Asia, centred west of Lake Baikal, which has increased since 1970. The CTC variability dominates the ATC variability, which corresponds well with the storm track variability. Two distinct variability modes in the upper tropospheric jets over East Asia are also observed. The first mode describes an oscillation in the subtropical jet position; the second mode describes the polar-front jet strength variation. Moreover, the second mode is closely linked to the cyclone/anticyclone activity variability

Mitigation of offshore wind power intermittency by interconnection of production sites

This study uses a unique set of hourly wind speed data observed over a period of 16 years to quantify the potential of collective offshore wind power production. We address the well-known intermittency problem of wind power for five locations along the Norwegian continental shelf. Mitigation of wind power intermittency is investigated using a hypothetical electricity grid. The degree of mitigation is examined by connecting different configurations of the sites. Along with the wind power smoothing effect, we explore the risk probability of the occurrence and duration of wind power shutdown due to too low or high winds. Typical large-scale atmospheric situations resulting in long term shutdown periods are identified. We find that both the wind power variability and the risk of not producing any wind power decrease significantly with an increasing array of connected sites. The risk of no wind power production for a given hour is reduced from the interval 8.0 %–11.2 % for a single site to under 4 % for two sites. Increasing the array size further reduces the risk, but to a lesser extent. The average atmospheric weather pattern resulting in wind speed that is too low (too high) to produce wind power is associated with a high-pressure (low-pressure) system near the production sites

Transient response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to enhanced freshwater input to the Nordic Seas–Arctic Ocean in the Bergen Climate Model

The transient response of the climate system to anomalously large freshwater input to the high latitude seas is examined using the newly developed Bergen Climate Model. A 150-yr twin-experiment has been carried out, consisting of a control and a freshwater integration. In the freshwater integration, the freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas is artificially increased by a factor of 3, or to levels comparable to those found during the last deglaciation. The obtained response shows a reduced maximum strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) over the first 50 yr of about 6 Sv (1 Sv =106 m3 s−1), followed by a gradual recovery to a level comparable to the control integration at the end of the period. The weakened AMOC in the freshwater integration is caused by reduced deep-water formation rates in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and in the Nordic Seas, and by a reduced southward flow of intermediate water masses through the Fram Strait. The recovery of the AMOC is caused by an increased basin-scale upwelling in the Atlantic Ocean of about 1 Sv, northward transport of saline waters originating from the western tropical North Atlantic, and a surface wind field maintaining the inflow of Atlantic Water to the Nordic Seas between the Faroes and Scotland. Associated with the build-up of more saline waters in the western tropical North Atlantic, a warming of ∼0.6 ◦C over the uppermost 1000 m of the water column is obtained in this region. This finding is consistent with paleo records during the last deglaciation showing that the tropics warmed when the high latitudes cooled in periods with reduced AMOC. Furthermore, the results support the presence of a coupled North-Atlantic-Oscillation-like atmosphere–sea-ice–ocean response mode triggered by the anomalous freshwater input. Throughout most of the freshwater integration, the atmospheric circulation is characterized by anomalously low sea level pressure in the Nordic Seas and anomalously high sea level pressure over Spain. This forces the North Atlantic Drift to follow a more easterly path in the freshwater integration than in the control integration, giving an asymmetric sea surface temperature response in the northern North Atlantic, and thereby maintaining the properties of the AtlanticWater entering the Nordic Seas between the Faroes and Scotland throughout the freshwater integration

The sensitivity of the present day Atlantic meriodinal overturning circulation to freshwater forcing

Mounting evidence indicates that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was strongly reduced during cold climate episodes in the past, possible due to freshwater influx from glacial melting. It is also expected that the freshwater input to high northern latitudes will increase as human-induced global warming continues, with potential impacts on the AMOC. Here we present results from a 150 years sensitivity experiment with the Bergen Climate Model (BCM) for the present-day climate, but with enhanced runoff from the Arctic region throughout the integration. The AMOC drops by 30% over the first 50 years, followed by a gradual recovery. The simulated response indicates that the present-day AMOC might be robust to the isolated effect of enhanced, high-latitude freshwater forcing on a centennial time scale, and that the western tropical North Atlantic may provide key information about the long-term variability, and by that monitoring, of the AMOC

Description and evaluation of the Bergen climate model: ARPEGE coupled with MICOM

A new coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model has been developed, named the Bergen Climate Model (BCM). It consists of the atmospheric model ARPEGE/IFS, together with a global version of the ocean model MICOM including a dynamic–thermodynamic sea ice model. The coupling between the two models uses the OASIS software package. The new model concept is described, and results from a 300-year control integration is evaluated against observational data. In BCM, both the atmosphere and the ocean components use grids which can be irregular and have non-matching coastlines. Much effort has been put into the development of optimal interpolation schemes between the models, in particular the non-trivial problem of flux conservation in the coastal areas. A flux adjustment technique has been applied to the heat and fresh-water fluxes. There is, however, a weak drift in global mean sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-surface salinity (SSS) of respectively 0.1 °C and 0.02 psu per century. The model gives a realistic simulation of the radiation balance at the top-of-the-atmosphere, and the net surface fluxes of longwave, shortwave, and turbulent heat fluxes are within observed values. Both global and total zonal means of cloud cover and precipitation are fairly close to observations, and errors are mainly related to the strength and positioning of the Hadley cell. The mean sea-level pressure (SLP) is well simulated, and both the mean state and the interannual standard deviation show realistic features. The SST field is several degrees too cold in the equatorial upwelling area in the Pacific, and about 1 °C too warm along the eastern margins of the oceans, and in the polar regions. The deviation from Levitus salinity is typically 0.1 psu – 0.4 psu, with a tendency for positive anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, and negative in the Southern Hemisphere. The sea-ice distribution is realistic, but with too thin ice in the Arctic Ocean and too small ice coverage in the Southern Ocean. These model deficiencies have a strong influence on the surface air temperatures in these regions. Horizontal oceanic mass transports are in the lower range of those observed. The strength of the meridional overturning in the Atlantic is 18 Sv. An analysis of the large-scale variability in the model climate reveals realistic El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic–Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO) characteristics in the SLP and surface temperatures, including spatial patterns, frequencies, and strength. While the NAO/AO spectrum is white in SLP and red in temperature, the ENSO spectrum shows an energy maximum near 3 years

Observed Atmospheric Coupling between Barents Sea Ice and the Warm-Arctic Cold-Siberian Anomaly Pattern

The decline in Barents Sea ice has been implicated in forcing the “warm-Arctic cold-Siberian” (WACS) anomaly pattern via enhanced turbulent heat flux (THF). This study investigates interannual variability in winter [December–February (DJF)] Barents Sea THF and its relationship to Barents Sea ice and the large-scale atmospheric flow. ERA-Interim and observational data from 1979/80 to 2011/12 are used. The leading pattern (EOF1: 33%) of winter Barents Sea THF variability is relatively weakly correlated (r = 0.30) with Barents Sea ice and appears to be driven primarily by atmospheric variability. The sea ice–related THF variability manifests itself as EOF2 (20%, r = 0.60). THF EOF2 is robust over the entire winter season, but its link to the WACS pattern is not. However, the WACS pattern emerges consistently as the second EOF (20%) of Eurasian surface air temperature (SAT) variability in all winter months. When Eurasia is cold, there are indeed weak reductions in Barents Sea ice, but the associated THF anomalies are on average negative, which is inconsistent with the proposed direct atmospheric response to sea ice variability. Lead–lag correlation analyses on shorter time scales support this conclusion and indicate that atmospheric variability plays an important role in driving observed variability in Barents Sea THF and ice cover, as well as the WACS pattern.Keywords: Atmospheric circulation, entity, Geographic location, Climate change, Air-sea interaction, Circulation, Physical Meteorology and Climatology, Arctic, Surface fluxes, Sea ice, Dynamic