Is probability utility correlation really correlation?An individual-level analysis of risk-reward heuristics

Utility and probability have been considered independentconstructs for decision making under uncertainty. However,many studies have suggested that people assume there is acorrelation between probability and utility. Some studies havedemonstrated that people appear to estimate the utility ofevents depending on their probabilities, and other studiesrecently indicated the existence of “risk-reward heuristics” thatassume a negative correlation between probability and utilityin the real world when inferring winning probabilities frompayoffs during decisions made under uncertainty. This studyaimed to explore the relationship between probability andutility by requiring participants to estimate both probabilitiesfrom payoffs and payoffs from probabilities under a gain orloss situation. The results indicated that when estimating valuesof payoffs from probabilities, participants’ judgments showedclear negative correlations between probability and utility bothin the gain and loss condition. However, when estimatingprobabilities from payoffs, this negative correlation betweenutility and probability was found only in a gain situation. Theseresults support the existence of risk-reward heuristics, and atthe same time, suggest a possibility that people have differentintuitions for the probability-utility relationship between thegain and loss domains

Do round numbers always become reference points?:An examination by Japanese and Major League Baseball data

The round number effect refers to discontinuity around roundnumbers (“0.300”, “4 hours”) in frequency distribution,indicating that people consider the round numbers as goals orreference points for their performances. This study aimed toexamine the round number effect by exploring the followingtwo issues: (1) examination of Japanese baseball data, and (2)comparison between batters who exceeded the regulationnumber of at-bat of season and those who did not. Resultsindicate the following three points; (1) the round numbereffect was found in Japanese baseball data, (2) but it wasfound only for the batters who exceeded provision bat numberof season, and (3) magnitude of the effect was stronger inJapanese than Major League Baseball data. Generaldiscussion argued these results in terms of players’ motivationand disposition

Efficiency Improvement of a Reverse Logistics System

This chapter discusses the efficiency of a series of processes from discarded tire recovery to thermal recycling. A simulation model was developed for improving the efficiency of fuel chip transportation in the Kansai region of Japan, and a simulation analysis was carried out based on actual data. Discarded tires form automobiles are recovered through gas stations, tire shops, etc. The discarded tires are crushed into fuel chips at a recycling factory and are used for thermal recycling. Fuel chips are transported to steelworks, paper mills, etc., and are used as a substitute for coal in boilers at those plants. Fuel chips, made from discarded tires, have about the same fuel efficiency, in terms of calorie performance, as coal. However, it has been directly transported from a recycling factory to steelworks by truck, without any consideration for the environment. Therefore, in this research, this study investigated measures to transport fuel chips efficiently and environmentally, by introducing a modal shift, which combines trucks with marine transport, rather than truck alone. As a result of numerical experiments, it was clarified that adequate results can be obtained if the distance of sea transport is sufficiently far apart for the introduction of a modal shift

Hydrogenation of Polycrystalline Silicon Thin‐Film Transistors

In this chapter, the behavior of hydrogen (H) atoms in polycrystalline silicon (poly‐Si) thin film is investigated in detail in order to evaluate and improve the quality of hydrogenated poly‐Si thin films. Hydrogenation drastically improves the Hall effect mobility, whereas excessive hydrogenation tends to degrade it. The catalytic method is useful to inhibit excessive hydrogenation and damage suffered by the electric‐field acceleration of charged particle. The H‐termination of the dangling bonds at grain boundaries can be observed indirectly or directly by chemical etching and Raman microscopy. This H‐termination appeared as the 2000 cm-1 local vibrational mode (LVM) in Raman spectra. The breaking of the Si–Si bonds by hydrogenation was detected as the 2100 cm-1 LVM. In addition, the defects generated in the plasma process exhibit multiple fine LVMs after hydrogenation. Moreover, we investigated the hydrogenation of low‐temperature (LT) poly‐Si thin‐film transistors (TFTs) from the perspective of the gettering phenomenon. The most important parameter for effective hydrogenation using H gas annealing is the rate of cooling from 400°C

Statistical Properties of Distribution of Solid Particles at the Bottom Setting in Turbulent Shear Flow

In this paper the behaviors of settling particles in turbulent shear flow are investigated and the statistical properties of distribution of the particles at the bottom are obtained experimentally and theoretically. For the properties of distribution of the particles, the mean settling length of the particle, that is, the mean value of the streamwisely transporte length of the particle, and the standard deviation of the settling length are considered. These statistical properties are obtained by experiment and the trajectories of the settling particles are photographed by storoboscopic light. Then, on the basis of these experimental results, the stochastic models for the behaviors of the settling particles are developed. These models can explain well the actual phenomena, and it is found that these stochastic models are to be pertinent. Problems to be solved in the future are discussed

Comprehensive analysis of the regulatory roles of auxin in early transdifferentiation into xylem cells

Auxin is essential for the formation of the vascular system. We previously reported that a polar auxin transport inhibitor, 1-N-naphthylphthalamic acid (NPA) decreased intracellular auxin levels and prevented tracheary element (TE) differentiation from isolated Zinnia mesophyll cells, but that additional auxin, 1-naphthaleneacetic acid (NAA) overcame this inhibition. To understand the role of auxin in gene regulation during TE differentiation, we performed microarray analysis of genes expressed in NPA-treated cells and NPA-NAA-treated cells. The systematic gene expression analysis revealed that NAA promoted the expression of genes related to auxin signaling and transcription factors that are known to be key regulators of differentiation of procambial and xylem precursor cells. NAA also promoted the expression of genes related to biosynthesis and metabolism of other plant hormones, such as cytokinin, gibberellin and brassinosteroid. Interestingly, detailed analysis showed that NAA rapidly induces the expression of auxin carrier gene homologues. It suggested a positive feedback loop for auxin-regulating vascular differentiation. Based on these results, we discuss the auxin function in early processes of transdifferentiation into TE

Linking social capital and mortality in the elderly: A Swedish national cohort study.

Our objective was to examine the association between neighborhood linking social capital (a concept describing the amount of trust between individuals and societal institutions) and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the elderly