Capital process and optimality properties of a Bayesian Skeptic in coin-tossing games

We study capital process behavior in the fair-coin game and biased-coin games in the framework of the game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We show that if Skeptic uses a Bayesian strategy with a beta prior, the capital process is lucidly expressed in terms of the past average of Reality's moves. From this it is proved that the Skeptic's Bayesian strategy weakly forces the strong law of large numbers (SLLN) with the convergence rate of O(\sqrt{\log n/n})$ and if Reality violates SLLN then the exponential growth rate of the capital process is very accurately described in terms of the Kullback divergence between the average of Reality's moves when she violates SLLN and the average when she observes SLLN. We also investigate optimality properties associated with Bayesian strategy

Investigations of the Temperature Influence on Formation of Compounds from the BTEX Group During the Thermal Decomposition of Furan Resin / Badania wpływu temperatury na powstawanie związków z grupy BTEX podczas termicznego rozkładu żywicy furanowej

Spoiwa organiczne stosowane w odlewnictwie bazujące na żywicach syntetycznych, z jednej strony wpływają na uzyskanie przez masę formierską odpowiednich właściwości technologicznych a w konsekwencji tego otrzymania dobrych odlewów, a z drugiej w procesach odlewniczych stanowią źródło lotnych związków organicznych (LZO). Wraz z żywicami syntetycznymi stosowane są również ich utwardzacze, których dodatek stanowi wprawdzie niewielki procent w stosunku do masy żywicy, ale związki uwalniane w trakcie ich termicznego rozkładu mogą negatywnie oddziaływać na środowisko naturalne. Zarówno żywice jak i utwardzacze dopiero pod wpływem temperatury towarzyszącej zalewaniu formy ciekłym metalem generują szkodliwe lotne związki organiczne, w tym związki z grupy BTEX. Badania wpływu temperatury na rodzaj oraz ilość związków organicznych powstających podczas termicznego rozkładu wybranych spoiw i utwardzaczy oraz ich mieszanin, pozwalają określić zarówno zakres temperatur najbardziej charakterystycznych dla uwalniania szkodliwych związków, jak również dokonać porównania ich emisji z wybranych materiałów

Ljevačka industrija – sadašnje stanje i budući razvitak

The casting production is considered as one of the main factors influencing the development of world economy. The state of art and foresight of world’s casting production is discussed in the paper on the basis of the latest statistical data. The progress gained during the last few years in foundry engineering is shown as a way to further development of foundry technology. The last decade brought significant changes in the world map of the greatest casting producers. Globalization and transformation of economic systems is reflected by variations of foundry production in different countries, more over the globalization of economy is regarded not only as a chance but also as a menace for the European foundries.Ljevačka proizvodnja se smatra jednom od glavnih utjecajnih faktora u svjetskom gospodarstvu. Stanje postignuća i predmnijevanje ljevačke proizvodnje na temelju posljednjih statističkih podataka daje se u ovom članku. Polučeni napredak tijekom nekoliko posljednjih godina u ljevačkoj tehnici je prikazan kao putokaz budućeg razvitka ljevačke tehnologije. Posljednja dekada donosi značajne izmjene na svjetskoj karti najvećih proizvođača odljevaka. Globalizacija i tansformacija ekonomskog sustava održavanja se raznolikošću u ljevačkoj proizvodnji različitih država, što više globalizacije gospodarstvo se motri ne samo kao šansa nego i kao ugroz europskih ljevaonica

The state of art and foresight of world’s casting production

The casting production is considered of the main factors influencing the development of World economy. Actual capacity of the world’s casting production, which is about 101 mln metric ton per year (2012), is strongly diversified. The last decade brought significant changes in the World map of the greatest casting producers. Globalization and transformation of economic systems is reflected by variations of foundry production in different countries, moreover the globalization of economy is regarded not only as a chance but also as a menace for European foundries

New procedures for testing whether stock price processes are martingales

We propose procedures for testing whether stock price processes are martingales based on limit order type betting strategies. We first show that the null hypothesis of martingale property of a stock price process can be tested based on the capital process of a betting strategy. In particular with high frequency Markov type strategies we find that martingale null hypotheses are rejected for many stock price processes

Game-theoretic versions of strong law of large numbers for unbounded variables

We consider strong law of large numbers (SLLN) in the framework of game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We prove several versions of SLLN for the case that Reality's moves are unbounded. Our game-theoretic versions of SLLN largely correspond to standard measure-theoretic results. However game-theoretic proofs are different from measure-theoretic ones in the explicit consideration of various hedges. In measure-theoretic proofs existence of moments are assumed, whereas in our game-theoretic proofs we assume availability of various hedges to Skeptic for finite prices

Emission of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene (BTEX) from the furan moulding sands with addition of the reclaim

In this paper, the results of decomposition of a moulding sand with furfuryl resin also on a quartz matrix and with additions of a reclaimed material, under industrial conditions, are presented. Investigations of the gases emission in the test foundry plant were performed according to the original method developed in the Faculty of Foundry Engineering, AGH UST. The dependence of the emitted PAHs and BTEX group substances and ignition losses on the reclaim fraction in a moulding sand are of a linear character of a very high correlation coefficient R2. On the bases of the derived equations, it is possible to determine the amount of the emitted hazardous substances from the moulding sand containing the known fraction of the reclaim

Shimanto geosyncline and Kuroshio paleoland

The late Mesozoic to early Neogene geosyncline in the Outer zone of Southwest Japan has been studied in detail in the Kii Peninsula by the Research Group for the Shimanto Geosyncline. The existence of the Kuroshio Paleoland to the south of the geosyncline was inferred by various sedimentologic evidences. The Shimanto belt in the Kii Peninsula is divided from north to south into three zones of Cretaceous, Eocene and Oligocene to lower Miocene. In these belts thick geosynclinal sediments were accumulated showing coarsening upward. The southward migration of the basin occurred in Cretaceous/Eocene, Eocene/Oligocene, and in early Miocene. In the present paper the reconstruction of paleogeography of the Shimanto geosyncline was attempted and the Kuroshio Paleoland was discussed in relation to the geohistory of the Philippine Sea. In spite of the detailed geologic survey in the Kii Peninsula there is no evidence of large exotic blocks nor tectonic mélanges, and this does not support the plate tectonic model ofthe Pacific-type orogeny for the Shimanto belt.ArticleJournal of Physics of the Earth. 26(suppl):357-366 (1978)journal articl

Neškodljivost kalupnih pjesaka sa bentonitom i svijetlećim nositeljima ugljika

Procedures have been developed to determine the volume, rate and composition (particularly BTEX: benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes and PAHs (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons)) of gas evolution from moulds and cores prepared with various binders as a means of harmfulness of moulding sands. The rate of gas evolution from green sands with four different lustrous carbon carrier and BTEX content were determined. The gas evolution rates are highest in the range of about 20 to 30 s after contact with molten metal. In practice during the first 200-250 s the total emission of gases generated in investigated samples occurred. The main emitted component from the BTEX group was benzene.Postupci su razvijeni za određivanje volumena, brzine i sastava (posebice BTEX: benzen, toluen, etilbenzen, xilana) i PAH (policiklički automatski hidrokarbonati) plina koji nastaje iz kalupa i jezgri na različitim nosačima u težnji za neškodljivost kalupnih pijesaka. Brzine nastajanja plina iz pripravljenih pijesaka sa 4 različita svijetleća nositelja ugljika i sadržajem BTEX su određeni. Brzine nastajanja plina su najveće u razini 20 do 30 s poslije dodira sa rastopljenim metalom. Praktično, tijekom prvih 200-250 s ostvaruje se ukupna emisija stvorenih plinova u istraživanim uzorcima. Iz BTEX skupine, benzen je glavna emitirajuća komponenta

Assessment of harmfulness of phenolic resins hardened by CO2 in an aspect of emission of substances from BTEX and PAH groups

Abstract Out of moulding sands used in the foundry industry, sands with organic binders deserve a special attention. These binders are based on synthetic resins, which ensure obtaining the proper technological properties and sound castings, however, they negatively influence the environment. If in the initial state these resins are not very dangerous for people and for the environment, thus under an influence of high temperatures they generate very harmful products, being the result of their thermal decomposition. Depending on the kind of the applied resin under an influence of a temperature such compounds as: furfuryl alcohol, formaldehyde, phenol, BTEX group (benzene, toluene, ethylobenzene, xylenes), and also polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) can be formed and released