Panel Data Estimates of the Demand for Money in the Pacific Island Countries

The Pedroni (2000) panel cointegration method is used to estimate the cointegrating equations for the demand for narrow money for a panel of five Pacific Island Countries (Fiji, Samoa, Solomons, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea) for the period 1975-2007. The effects of financial reforms are analyzed with estimates from sub-sample periods. Our results suggest that there is a unique cointegrated long run relationship between real narrow money, real income and nominal rate of interest. The major finding is that the money demand function has been stable and financial reforms are yet to have any significant effects in the Pacific Island Countries.Demand for money, income elasticity, semi-interest rate elasticity.

Cointegration and the Demand for Energy in Fiji

This paper applies alternative time series techniques such as General to Specific (GETS) and Johansen Maximum Likelihood (JML) to estimate the long run income and price elasticities of demand for energy for Fiji. We also test for the causal relationship between energy consumption, GDP and energy prices using the Granger causality tests. Our results imply that there is a uni-directional causality running from GDP to energy consumption.Energy consumption; GDP; income elasticity; energy price elasticity

What Determines the Long run Growth in Kenya?

Lifting the long run growth rate is, arguably, the pursuit of every economy. What should Kenya do to enhance its long run growth rate? This paper attempts to answer this question by examining the determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in Kenya. We utilized the theoretical insights from the Solow (1956) growth model and its extension by Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992) and followed Senhadji’s (2000) growth accounting procedure. We find that growth in Kenya, until the 1990s was mainly due to factor accumulation. Since then, TFP has made a small contribution to growth. Our findings imply that while variables like overseas development aid, foreign direct investment and progress of financial sector improves TFP, trade openness is the key determinant. Consequently, policy makers should focus on policies that improve trade openness if long run growth rate is to be raised.Solow model, growth accounting, total factor productivity.

Structural Breaks and the Demand for Money in Fiji

This paper fills a gap in the empirical work on the demand for money for Fiji. We allowed for structural breaks in the cointegrating equation, within the Gregory and Hansen framework, and found that there is a cointegrating relationship between real narrow money, real income and the nominal rate of interest in all the three types of their models. However, only the model with an intercept shift for the 1987 political coup yields a meaningful cointegrating relationship. We tested for its temporal stability and found that the demand for money in Fiji is stable.Structural break; Cointegration; Gregory and Hansen; Demand for money; Fiji

Assessing Sustainability of the Irish Public Debt

This paper utilizes a small-scale econometric model to study the dynamics of the Irish debt-to-GDP ratio. The role of world GDP growth, domestic GDP growth, real effective exchange rate, interest rate and primary balance is analyzed in the debt dynamics. We find that the Irish economy will recover to its normal path by 2015. Policy interventions for higher primary balance and output growth, and the external positive scenarios for variables such as the world GDP growth, rate of interest and real effective exchange rate are desirable to help further reduce the debt path.Debt to GDP ratio; Irish economy; Sustainability

Some Empirical Evidence on the Demand for Money in the Pacific Island Countries

This paper explores the stability of the demand for narrow money in the Pacific Island Countries viz, Fiji, Vanuatu, Samoa, Solomons and Papua New Guinea (PNG). The results from the time series approaches of LSE-Hendry’s General to Specific (GETS) and Johansen’s Maximum Likelihood (JML) suggest that real income, nominal rate of interest and real narrow money, are cointegrated. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability test results indicate that the demand for money functions for these countries are stable and therefore the respective monetary authorities may consider targeting money supply in their conduct of monetary policy.Cointegration, Demand for Money, General to Specific Method and Johansen Maximum Likelihood Method

A Time Series Approach to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle with Panel Data from the OECD Countries

The Pedroni method is used to estimate the Feldstein-Horioka equation from 1960-2007 with a panel of 13 OECD countries. It is found that the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle exists in a weaker form with a much reduced saving retention coefficient. The Bretton Woods agreement in particular has weakened the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle by significantly improving the international capital mobility. In comparison the Maastricht agreement seems to have improved capital mobility only by a small magnitude. The structural break tests of Westerlund are used in this paper.Feldstein-Horioka puzzle; Structural breaks; Bretton Woods and Maastricht agreements; International capital mobility

Testing the Stability of Demand for Money in Tonga

The aim of this study is to investigate if there is a stable demand for money for Tonga. Our empirical results based on the alternative time series approaches of LSE-Hendry's General to Specific (GETS) and Johansen's Maximum Likelihood (JML) show that there is a unique cointegrated and stable long run relationship between real narrow money, real income and nominal rate of interest. We found that the demand for money function for Tonga is stable and therefore targeting money supply by National Reserve Bank of Tonga is appropriate. We obtained consistent results with both methods and they indicate that income elasticity is unity and the interest rate elasticity is well- determined and significant.Demand for Money; Stability of Money Demand Function; General to Specific Approach; Johansen Maximum Likelihood Method

What Determines the Long run Growth in Kenya?

Lifting the long run growth rate is, arguably, the pursuit of every economy. What should Kenya do to enhance its long run growth rate? This paper attempts to answer this question by examining the determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in Kenya. We utilized the theoretical insights from the Solow (1956) growth model and its extension by Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992) and followed Senhadji’s (2000) growth accounting procedure. We find that growth in Kenya, until the 1990s was mainly due to factor accumulation. Since then, TFP has made a small contribution to growth. Our findings imply that while variables like overseas development aid, foreign direct investment and progress of financial sector improves TFP, trade openness is the key determinant. Consequently, policy makers should focus on policies that improve trade openness if long run growth rate is to be raised.Solow model; growth accounting; total factor productivity

Coal Consumption and Economic Growth Revisited: Structural Breaks, Cointegration and Causality Tests for Pakistan

A global profusion of coal provides many countries with opportunities for economic growth. The direction of causality between coal consumption and economic growth is useful for policy making, however, existing empirical evidence have failed to reach a consensus. This paper examined the liaison between coal consumption and economic growth for Pakistan over the period 1971-2009. The endogenous two-break LM unit test, derived in Lee and Strazicich (2003), is used to assess the order of integration of the variables and structural breaks in the data series. Application of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test reveals a cointegrating relationship between real income, real capital stock, labour and coal consumption, and further application of General to Specific (GETS), Engle and Granger (EG), Stock Watson’s Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Phillip Hansen’s Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) methods show statistical robustness of the estimates. The elasticity with respect to coal consumption is positive and significant. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) based Granger causality test is also applied for both short-and long-run situations.Coal consumption; economic growth; cointegration; Granger causality