Does Financial Structure Matter?

We address the issue of whether financial structure influences economic growth. Three competing views of financial structure exist in the literature: the bank-based, the market-based and the financial services view. Recent empirical studies examine their relevance by utilizing panel and cross-section approaches. This paper, for the first time ever, utilizes time series data and methods, along with the Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel approach, on developing countries. We find significant cross-country heterogeneity in the dynamics of financial structure and economic growth, and conclude that it is invalid to pool data across our sample countries. We find significant effects of financial structure on real per capita output, which is in sharp contrast to some recent findings. Panel estimates, in most cases, do not correspond to country-specific estimates, and hence may proffer incorrect inferences for several countries of the panel.Financial Structure, Economic Development, Vector Error- Correction Model, Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels

Examining Private Investment Heterogeneity: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel

domestic private investment, public investment, dynamic heterogeneity, endogeneity, Generalised Method of Moments

Government Solvency: Revisiting some EMU Countries

Corsetti and Roubini (1991) reported that the government finances of Greece, Ireland, Italy and the Netherlands (now all EMU countries) did not satisfy the intertemporal budget constraint (IBC). We re-examine this issue by utilizing a new empirical approach and extended data set. Structural shifts, an issue which Corsetti and Roubini were unable to address due to the lack of suitable econometric methods, are tackled. We find that: (i) multiple structural shifts, most of which correspond to important policy changes, did occur in the fiscal path of these countries; (ii) the effect of the majority of structural shifts has been to strengthen the evidence supporting IBC; and (iii) government finances of all four countries satisfy the IBC and this finding is robust to different time horizons. We also find a clear positive Maastricht effect on IBC for all countries.intertemporal budget constraints, strong and weak form sustainability, structural breaks

Financial Restraints in the South Korean Miracle

We provide novel empirical evidence on the effects of financial restraints on South Korean financial development. The evidence is linked to a simple model of the Korean banking system that encapsulates its cartelised nature, which predicts a positive association between financial development and (i) the degree of state control over the banking system, (ii) mild repression of lending rates. The model also predicts that in the presence of lending rate controls, increases in the level of the administered deposit rate are unlikely to influence financial deepening. We test the model empirically by constructing individual and summary measures of financial restraints. Our empirical findings are consistent with our theoretical predictions but contrast sharply with the predictions of earlier literature that postulates that interest rate ceilings and other financial restraints constitute sources of ‘financial repression’.Financial deepening; financial restraints

Testing weak exogeneity in multiplicative error models

Empirical market microstructure literature widely employs the non-linear and non-Gaussian Multiplicative Error Class of Models (MEMs) in modelling the dynamics of trading duration and financial marks. It routinely maintains the weak exogeneity of duration vis-à-vis marks in estimations. However, microstructure theory states that trade duration, volume and transaction prices are simultaneously determined. We propose Lagrange-multiplier (LM) tests for weak exogeneity for the MEMs. Our LM tests are extensions of the weak exogeneity tests applicable to VAR or VECM models with Gaussian distribution. Empirical assessments show that (i) weak exogeneity is widely rejected by the data in the MEMs and (ii) the failure of weak exogeneity seriously biases parameter estimates. We hope our tests will be of interest in future empirical applications

Fiscal Deficits in Monetary Unions: A Comparison of EMU and United States

The stringent deficit criterion followed by the EMU is motivated by the belief that a sustainable fiscal arrangement is a must for a viable monetary union. In this paper we provide an empirical analysis of the issue of deficit convergence in the Euro area and compare and contrast the Euro-zone deficit with the US federal deficit. We find (i) evidence of fiscal convergence in most of the Euro-11 countries; (ii) achievement of 3% criteria by all Euro-countries immediately before the launch of the Euro; (iii) similar magnitudes and variability of deficit in Euro-11 and US and that (iv) Europe is subjected to smaller fiscal shocks than the US.Deficit; EMU; Monetary Union; Monetary

Ideas production and international knowledge spillovers: digging deeper into emerging countries

Research and Development (R&D) activities of emerging countries (EMEs) have increased considerably in recent years. Recent micro studies and anecdotal evidence points to industrialized countries as the sources of knowledge in EMEs. In this context, we examine ideas production and international knowledge spillovers in a panel of 31 EMEs by accounting for six diffusion channels and two types (national versus USPTO) of patent filings. Knowledge spillovers to EMEs accruing from (i) the industrialized world, (ii) the emerging world, (iii) different country and regional groups, (iv) selected bilateral cases, and (v) those within the regional clusters of EMEs, are modeled. Spillovers from the industrialized world appear robust via geographical proximity and disembodied channels only. Other conduits, including trade flows, are either insignificant or not robust. Spillovers from the emerging world are virtually non-existent. Analyses of regional clusters of EMEs do not support any role of language, culture or geographical characteristics in knowledge diffusion. Overall, the breadth and depth of knowledge spillovers to EMEs appear extremely moderate; however, we find pockets (specific countries and certain groups) generating positive spillovers. A carefully choreographed policy focusing on such pockets might be fruitful. We hope that this study (i) complements the micro literature, (ii) furthers the existing macro literature and (iii) provides some new policy insights. Our results are robust to a range of robustness checks, including the estimators – a cointegration approach versus a simple fixed effects OLS estimator

Financial development, structure and growth: new data, method and results

The existing weight of evidence suggests that financial structure (the classification of a financial system as bank-based versus market-based) is irrelevant for economic growth. This contradicts the common belief that the institutional structure of a financial system matters. We re-examine this issue using a novel dataset covering 69 countries over 1989-2011 in a Bayesian framework. Our results are conformable to the belief - a market-based system is relevant - with sizable economic effects for the high-income but not for the middle-and-low-income countries. Our findings provide a counterexample to the weight of evidence. We also identify a regime shift in 2008