Diagnosing the “Russian Disease”: Growth and Structure of the Russian Economy Then and Now

This paper diagnoses the present Russian situation characterized as the “Russian Disease.” First, it shows that a key symptom of the Russian Disease is a strong positive relation between the country’s real growth and terms-of-trade-effects, which is different from the symptoms of the “Dutch Disease”. This paper also presents three variants (oil prices, terms-of-trade, and trading gains) of the concept of terms-of-trade effects using the SNA framework. Second, it shows a strong positive impact of terms-of-trade effects on the Russian manufacturing, which markedly differs from one of the major symptoms of the Dutch Disease (slower growth of manufacturing through the booming mining sector and real appreciation of exchange rates). This paper also suggests the significance of the manufacturing industry for the Russian economy. Third, this paper shows that the appreciation (depreciation) of real exchange rates of Russia’s rubles induced the boost (decline) of its imports. Fourth, this paper proves that the boost of imports, in turn, induced the GDP growth of the trade sector as one of the major sources of the Russian overall growth. We also present the impact of oil prices on two kinds of real exchange rates (CPI-based and GDP-based real exchange rates).Russian Disease, Dutch Disease, growth, oil price, terms-of-trade, trading gain, manufacturing, imports, real exchange rate, trade

Growth and Diversification of the Russian Economy in Light of Input-Output Tables

This paper addresses the issues of measurement of Russia's dependence on oil and gas as well its attempts for diversification with shift toward a technology-centered economy. It further develops the Russia's input-output system to provide a better understanding of these issues. First, it clarifies the extent of the GDP of the mining (oil and gas) sector in Russia by modifying the original supply and use tables. Second, it provides an analysis of the diversification attempts through development of light automobiles by extending the supply and use tables. Third, it presents an attempt of multi-sectoral growth accounting based on our estimations of capital stock, focusing on the capital and TFP (Total Factor Productivity) contributions to growth.Russia, oil dependence, diversification, input-output, growth accounting

Russian Growth Path and TFP Changes in Light of the Estimation of Production Function using Quarterly Data

We present estimations of a Cobb-Douglas production function with a steady change in TFP (total factor productivity) for the Russian economy, using quarterly data for the favorable period 1998Q3–2008Q2 and the period 1995Q1–2010Q2 as well. Compiling our baseline data on capital and labor adjusted for utilization, we explicitly present estimations of the coefficients (the capital distribution ratio and TFP) of production function, which show that TFP is the major growth source, followed by the capital contribution. We also show results of measurement of Russia‟s GDP gaps as the differences between potential and actual GDPs based on the production function and the Hodrick-Prescott filter.Growth, TFP, Cobb-Douglas, Russia