Modeling Earthen Dike Stability: Sensitivity Analysis and Automatic Calibration of Diffusivities Based on Live Sensor Data

The paper describes concept and implementation details of integrating a finite element module for dike stability analysis Virtual Dike into an early warning system for flood protection. The module operates in real-time mode and includes fluid and structural sub-models for simulation of porous flow through the dike and for dike stability analysis. Real-time measurements obtained from pore pressure sensors are fed into the simulation module, to be compared with simulated pore pressure dynamics. Implementation of the module has been performed for a real-world test case - an earthen levee protecting a sea-port in Groningen, the Netherlands. Sensitivity analysis and calibration of diffusivities have been performed for tidal fluctuations. An algorithm for automatic diffusivities calibration for a heterogeneous dike is proposed and studied. Analytical solutions describing tidal propagation in one-dimensional saturated aquifer are employed in the algorithm to generate initial estimates of diffusivities

Slope Instability of the Earthen Levee in Boston, UK: Numerical Simulation and Sensor Data Analysis

The paper presents a slope stability analysis for a heterogeneous earthen levee in Boston, UK, which is prone to occasional slope failures under tidal loads. Dynamic behavior of the levee under tidal fluctuations was simulated using a finite element model of variably saturated linear elastic perfectly plastic soil. Hydraulic conductivities of the soil strata have been calibrated according to piezometers readings, in order to obtain correct range of hydraulic loads in tidal mode. Finite element simulation was complemented with series of limit equilibrium analyses. Stability analyses have shown that slope failure occurs with the development of a circular slip surface located in the soft clay layer. Both models (FEM and LEM) confirm that the least stable hydraulic condition is the combination of the minimum river levels at low tide with the maximal saturation of soil layers. FEM results indicate that in winter time the levee is almost at its limit state, at the margin of safety (strength reduction factor values are 1.03 and 1.04 for the low-tide and high-tide phases, respectively); these results agree with real-life observations. The stability analyses have been implemented as real-time components integrated into the UrbanFlood early warning system for flood protection

Distributed simulation of city inundation by coupled surface and subsurface porous flow for urban flood decision support system

We present a decision support system for flood early warning and disaster management. It includes the models for data-driven meteorological predictions, for simulation of atmospheric pressure, wind, long sea waves and seiches; a module for optimization of flood barrier gates operation; models for stability assessment of levees and embankments, for simulation of city inundation dynamics and citizens evacuation scenarios. The novelty of this paper is a coupled distributed simulation of surface and subsurface flows that can predict inundation of low-lying inland zones far from the submerged waterfront areas, as observed in St. Petersburg city during the floods. All the models are wrapped as software services in the CLAVIRE platform for urgent computing, which provides workflow management and resource orchestration.Comment: Pre-print submitted to the 2013 International Conference on Computational Scienc

Abnormally high oscillator strengths of the graphene nanoribbons electronic spectrum:quantum chemistry calculations

Armchair-edged narrow graphene nanoribbons (GNRs) are modelled by semi-empirical Hartree–Fock based quantum chemistry method ZINDO/S-CI. Electronic transitions with abnormally high oscillator strengths of over 200 are found in long GNRs (over 150 hexagonal carbon rings). We argue that this high optical absorption is caused by the structure of molecular orbitals and by the system size, and not by the configuration interaction

Reducing cross-flow vibrations of underflow gates: experiments and numerical studies

An experimental study is combined with numerical modelling to investigate new ways to reduce cross-flow vibrations of hydraulic gates with underflow. A rectangular gate section placed in a flume was given freedom to vibrate in the vertical direction. Holes in the gate bottom enabled leakage flow through the gate to enter the area directly under the gate which is known to play a key role in most excitation mechanisms. For submerged discharge conditions with small gate openings the vertical dynamic support force was measured in the reduced velocity range 1.5 < Vr < 10.5 for a gate with and without holes. The leakage flow through the holes significantly reduced vibrations. This attenuation was most profound in the high stiffness region at 2 < Vr < 3.5. Two-dimensional numerical simulations were performed with the Finite Element Method to assess local velocities and pressures for both gate types. A moving mesh covering both solid and fluid domain allowed free gate movement and two-way fluid-structure interactions. Modelling assumptions and observed numerical effects are discussed and quantified. The simulated added mass in still water is shown to be close to experimental values. The spring stiffness and mass factor were varied to achieve similar response frequencies at the same dry natural frequencies as in the experiment. Although it was not possible to reproduce the vibrations dominated by impinging leading edge vortices (ILEV) at relatively low Vr, the simulations at high Vr showed strong vibrations with movement-induced excitation (MIE). For the latter case, the simulated response reduction of the ventilated gate agrees with the experimental results. The numerical modelling results suggest that the leakage flow diminishes the whipping effect of fluctuations at the trailing edge associated with the streamwise pressure drop across the gate and the body's vertical oscillatory motion.Comment: 27 pages, 15 figures, 2 table

Uncertainty quantification of a three-dimensional in-stent restenosis model with surrogate modelling

In-Stent Restenosis is a recurrence of coronary artery narrowing due to vascular injury caused by balloon dilation and stent placement. It may lead to the relapse of angina symptoms or to an acute coronary syndrome. An uncertainty quantification of a model for In-Stent Restenosis with four uncertain parameters (endothelium regeneration time, the threshold strain for smooth muscle cells bond breaking, blood flow velocity and the percentage of fenestration in the internal elastic lamina) is presented. Two quantities of interest were studied, namely the average cross-sectional area and the maximum relative area loss in a vessel. Due to the computational intensity of the model and the number of evaluations required in the uncertainty quantification, a surrogate model, based on Gaussian process regression with proper orthogonal decomposition, was developed which subsequently replaced the original In-Stent Restenosis model in the uncertainty quantification. A detailed analysis of the uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis is presented. Around 11% and 16% of uncertainty are observed on the average cross-sectional area and maximum relative area loss respectively, and the uncertainty estimates show that a higher fenestration mainly determines uncertainty in the neointimal growth at the initial stage of the process. On the other hand, the uncertainty in blood flow velocity and endothelium regeneration time mainly determine the uncertainty in the quantities of interest at the later, clinically relevant stages of the restenosis process. The uncertainty in the threshold strain is relatively small compared to the other uncertain parameters