Leapfrogging: A Theory of Cycles in National Technological Leadership

Much recent work has suggested that endogenous technological change tends to reinforce the position of the leading nations. Yet from time to time this leadership role shifts. We suggest a mechanism that explains this pattern of -leapfrogging- as a response to occasional major changes in technology. When such a change occurs, leading nations may have no incentive to adopt the new ideas; given their extensive experience with older technologies, the new ideas do not initially seem to be an improvement. Lagging nations, however, have less experience; the new techniques offer them an opportunity to use their lower wages, to break into the market. If the new techniques eventually prove to be more productive than the old, there is a reversal of leadership.

Modelling the Folk Theorem of Spatial Economics: A Heterogeneous Regional Growth Model

During the last year, the research field of spatial economic has rapidly increased. There is consensus thatthe economic performance of a region depends not only on its own potential, but also on the development of their neighbouring regions. Knowledge spillovers, which are non constant over space, should influence the evolution of the region specific productivity. The so called 'folk theorem of spatial economics' states, that increasing returns to scale are essential for explaining the uneven economic distribution of specific economic activity, which implies that knowledge spillover, agglomeration and distribution of per capita productivity are closely linked. Thus, the aim of this paper is, to introduce a spatial regional growth model, which links first time knowledge spillover, agglomeration, distribution of per capita productivity and the grasp of spillovers. Further, it is shown in a simulation study, how different regimes of returns to scale and grasps of knowledge affect agglomeration and distribution of per capita productivity. One of key findings is, that grasp of knowledge affects dynamic distribution of per capita productivity. Moreover, the simulation study particularly finds support for the 'folk theorem of spatial economics'

Leapfrogging in International Competition: A Theory of Cycles in National Technological Leadership.

Endogenous-growth theory suggests that technological change tends to reinforce the position of the leading nations. Yet sometimes this leadership role shifts. The authors suggest a mechanism that explains this pattern of 'leapfrogging' as a response to occasional major changes in technology. When such a change occurs, the new technology does not initially seem to be an improvement for leading nations, given their extensive experience with older technologies. Lagging nations have less experience; the new technique allows them to use their lower wages to enter the market. If the new technique proves more productive than the old, leapfrogging of leadership occurs. Copyright 1993 by American Economic Association.

Non-linear geographics and the economics of transition and democratization

International audienceThe purpose of this study is to analyse the effects of geography on the transition process in authoritarian political regimes, and to investigate the nature of the links between political change, economic reforms and geographical location. A simple model of transition and democratization is presented wherein we show that the effectiveness of repression by the incumbent elite is a negative function of the distance to the 'free world'. In consequence, geography has conflicting effects on shifts in political power. This article provides a rationale for the counterintuitive fact that the first authoritarian country to start a transition process towards democratization is not necessarily the one nearest to the free world