Russia After Putin

View the Executive SummaryDespite many obstacles, the leadership in Washington and Moscow must find ways to address security threats even as the United States rebalances toward Asia. Moreover, he agrees with prominent statesmen like Zbigniew Brzezinski and Henry Kissinger that ultimately, Russia must be integrated into a Euro-Atlantic security system. The unexpected events of September 2013 that have resulted in a United Nations resolution compelling Syria to surrender its chemical weapons and a re-start of the Geneva negotiations to find a diplomatic resolution to the Syrian crisis offers evidence that a partnership, even if limited and fragile, is plausible. A major consideration of the U.S. national security establishment must include how to operationalize the partnership. For all intents and purposes, the United States and Russia now have taken responsibility for resolving the Syrian crisis and in the process have reached a new chapter in the reset of relations. If they succeed in finding a diplomatic solution to it, further cooperation on other shared security concerns will follow. If not, they will take a turn for the worse. Note: This research was completed in the fall of 2013, which was obviously prior to the recent crisis in Crimea and Ukraine.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1500/thumbnail.jp

Medvedev\u27s Plan: Giving Russia a Voice but not a Veto in a New European Security System

The author addresses the question of how to give Russia a voice but not a veto in a new European security system and provides some provocative recommendations. Most specifically, he proposes that the time has come to provide Russia with a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) and agrees that those who argue against it remain mired in a Cold War mindset that is out of sync with today’s strategic realities. Ultimately, a campaign to include Russia in NATO may fail but at the very least, the endeavor deserves serious consideration. He also provides compelling reasons why U.S. defense analysts must consider several future outcomes for Russia. In addition to being the only state that is capable of devastating the United States in a nuclear exchange, most of the world’s population and resources exist on the borders of its massive territory. Its future then, will shape the global strategic environment for decades to come.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1608/thumbnail.jp

The Afghanistan Question and the Reset in U.S.-Russian Relations

The ability of the United States and Russia to cooperate in Afghanistan represents a solid test of their reset in relations. The author provides the historical background to the Afghanistan Question and assesses current events in the Afghan war with three objectives in mind: 1) To determine whether Russian-American cooperation in Afghanistan has been successful; 2) To identify and evaluate the successes and failures of the counterinsurgency strategy as the transition from U.S. to Afghanistan authority gains traction in the 2011-14 time frame; and 3) To provide conclusions and recommendations bearing on developments in Afghanistan.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1333/thumbnail.jp

Iron Troikas: The New Threat from the East

There has been widespread discussion of Russia\u27s efforts to exploit its energy assets to influence developments in Ukraine; specifically, to put pressure on the leaders of the Orange Revolution who have adopted a Western orientation, rather than one toward the East—Russia. The author explains how the Russian leadership has exploited its energy assets to advance its security interests in the vital East Baltic Sea Region, particularly Poland and the Baltic countries. This triad of power is comprised of former members of the military and security service—the siloviki; economic warlords, members of organized crime, and rogue military personnel; and local elites in Poland and the Baltic countries who have advanced Russia\u27s security interests in the region. The author provides recommendations on how this can be addressed by the U.S. military and the EBSR defense establishments.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1715/thumbnail.jp

The Afghanistan question and the reset in U.S.-Russian relations /

The ability of the United States and Russia to cooperate in Afghanistan represents a solid test of their reset in relations. The author provides the historical background to the Afghanistan Question and assesses current events in the Afghan war with three objectives in mind: 1) to determine whether Russian-American cooperation in Afghanistan has been successful; 2) to identify and evaluate the successes and failures of the counterinsurgency strategy as the transition from U.S. to Afghanistan authority gains traction in the 2011-14 time frame; and 3) to provide conclusions and recommendations bearing on developments in Afghanistan."October 2011."Includes bibliographical references.Summary -- Introduction -- The American skeptics -- Russian skeptics -- The American rationale -- The Russian rationale -- The study's objectives -- Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. The decision to invade -- Escalation -- Bringing the Red Army home -- What was happening? -- The U.S. reaction -- The end -- The failure to create a stable post-Soviet government and civil war. The United Nations proposal -- Why the proposal failed -- Washington's and Moscow's failure -- The Taliban and Osama bin Laden. The origins of the Taliban -- Osama bin Laden -- The United States acknowledges bin Laden as a threat -- 9/11 and war against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. The September 2001 terrorist attacks -- Routing the jihadists -- The Karzai government -- Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda : an assessment -- A partial victory -- Three scenarios. The existing situation or plan A : an unstable but viable Afghanistan through COIN -- The insurgency -- The Karzai government -- Security forces -- The civilian-economic component -- Declining support for the war within the United States -- Pakistan -- Plan B : partition -- A Taliban victory -- The global jihadists prevail -- The Taliban return to power with a national agenda -- The Russian response -- Countering Afghan narcotics -- The struggle over Manas -- The northern distribution network -- Central Asia and the North Caucasus -- Concluding remarks and recommendations. Identifying the enemy : a civil war within Islam -- Making room for the rest -- The American malaise -- Sticking to the 2014 Afghanistan exit schedule -- Preparing for Bonn II -- Plan B : partition -- Preparing for the worst case scenario (Plan C) : a Taliban victory -- Confronting Pakistan -- The time has come to reduce our profile in the Middle East -- Sustaining and enlarging security cooperation with Russia.The ability of the United States and Russia to cooperate in Afghanistan represents a solid test of their reset in relations. The author provides the historical background to the Afghanistan Question and assesses current events in the Afghan war with three objectives in mind: 1) to determine whether Russian-American cooperation in Afghanistan has been successful; 2) to identify and evaluate the successes and failures of the counterinsurgency strategy as the transition from U.S. to Afghanistan authority gains traction in the 2011-14 time frame; and 3) to provide conclusions and recommendations bearing on developments in Afghanistan.Mode of access: Internet