Economic uncertainty and fertility postponement: evidence from German panel data

This paper investigates whether economic uncertainty induces a postponement of family formation. We use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel which provides longitudinal information of economic uncertainty and fertility for the period 1984 to 2004. We employ ‘objective’ measures of uncertainty (unemployment, fixed-term contract, low income) as well as ‘subjective’ measures (the feeling that the personal economic situation is insecure). Our results suggest that there is no clear indication that economic uncertainty generally leads to a postponement of parenthood. More highly educated women tend to postpone family formation when unemployed or when they feel insecure about their personal economic situation. However, women with low educational levels accommodate themselves quite readily with motherhood when subject to labor market insecurities.Germany, fertility

Educational attainment and first births: East Germany before and after unification

There is a general belief that female educational attainment has a delaying effect on the age at first birth. In this paper we argue that the validity of this hypothesis relies on at least three prerequisites. First, that child rearing and employment is incompatible. Second, that a withdrawal from the labor market harms labor market upward mobility. Third, that child rearing responsibilities are shared according to traditional gender roles. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we analyze the impact of educational attainment on first birth risks in East and West Germany before and after unification. A major result is that, compared to West Germany, the impact of educational attainment on first birth risks is less strong in East Germany. This also applies to the period after unification. We attribute this to the relative abundance of public day care in the East. (AUTHOR)

Crisis or adaptation reconsidered: a comparison of East and West German fertility patterns in the first six years after the ´Wende´

Similar to other Eastern European countries, East Germany experienced a rapid decline in period fertility rates after the fall of communism. This decline has been discussed along the lines of a ´crisis´ and a ´adaptation´ to western demographic patterns. The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we discuss the factors which foster and hamper a convergence of fertility behavior in East and West Germany. Secondly, we use data from the German micro-census to analyze the fertility patterns of the cohorts born 1961-1970. Major results from our empirical analysis are that East Germans who are still childless at unification are more rapid to have their first child in the subsequent years than comparable West Germans. However, regarding second parity births, the pattern reverses. Here, East Germans display a lower transition rate than their counterparts in the West.Germany, fertility

Does the availability of childcare influence the employment of mothers? Findings from western Germany

There is a vast empirical literature investigating the effects of childcare costs on female employment. Day-care costs are usually treated as a reduction in female wages and are supposed to reduce a woman’s propensity to participate in the labor market. In this paper we argue that an analysis of the effects of childcare on the employment of mothers in Germany should focus on the availability rather than the affordability of care, due to peculiarities of the German day-care regime. Our empirical findings cast doubt on the effectiveness of the current German day-care regime. Specifically, we question the extent to which it enables mothers to participate in the labor market. (AUTHORS)

Non-marital births in East Germany after unification

In comparison to other European countries, West Germany displays relatively low rates of non-marital childbearing. Since the 1960, there has been a postponement of first birth, an increase in the age at first marriage and an increase in childlessness. Nevertheless, childbearing and marriage remained strongly coupled. In the former East Germany, on the other hand, non-marital childbearing was relatively high compared to other European countries and particularly compared to West Germany. In 1989, the ratio of non-marital births had reached 33 percent. Overwhelmingly, researchers blamed GDR policies for high non-marital birth rates. However, after the breakdown of the GDR regime, the high East German non-marital birth rates did not rebound to West German levels but they sky-rocked, reaching 50 percent in 1999. Using data from the German micro-census of the year 1997, we investigate the hypothesis that high nonmarital births reflect a high labor market orientation among East German women with children. Our empirical results reveal two different patterns in East and West Germany. While in the West a high labor market orientation is indeed related to lower marriage risks, we find the reversed pattern in East Germany. East German women with a college degree and/ or women who have a relatively higher educational attainment than their male partners are more likely to get married when they have children.

Family formation in times of social and economic change: an analysis of the 1971 East German cohort

The birth cohort 1971 entered transition to adulthood at the onset of societal transformation in East Germany. Their marriage and fertility behavior therefore was expected to be severely affected by the upheavals following unification. And indeed, compared to their predecessors, there is a drastic increase in the age at marriage, age at first birth and a decline in second birth risks. In this paper, we adopt a life course perspective to investigate the factors that have contributed to the postponement of family formation after unification. The empirical analysis suggests that highly educated women in particular are postponing fertility. Women with a relatively low education, by contrast, are accelerating family formation. Contrary to standard views on East German fertility, we do not find evidence for the hypothesis that unemployment generally lead to a postponement of first birth.Germany, fertility

Fertility and Mortality Data for Germany. Recent Progress and Future Challenges

In recent years, considerable progress has been made in improving the data infrastructure for fertility and morality researchers in Germany. Several large scale data sets have been made available through the research data centers: the micro-censuses of the 1970s and 1980s, the censuses of the GDR and FRG, the micro-census panel, data from the pension registers, individual level data from the vital statistics, and the central foreigner registers have become available for scientific usage. Vital statistics have been reformed, and the micro-census now includes information on number of children ever born. Despite these improvements, there are still some “weak spots” in Germany’s data infrastructure. Germany is lacking official counts of reconstituted families. We know little about the mortality risks of immigrants. In addition, the data infrastructure for studying the socio-economic differences in mortality risks could be improved, thus enabling Germany to catch up with international developments in this area. This paper concludes by making some suggestions for improving the data available.Fertility, Mortality, Demographic Data

Against all odds: fathers’ use of parental leave in Germany

This paper investigates fathers’ usage of parental leave in Germany based on data from the microcenses 1999-2005. We consider two competing hypotheses. On the one hand, we argue that value change is a driving force behind fathers’ engagement in parenting activities. We assume that the ‘new father’ can more often be found among highly educated and urban men who are believed to be the forerunners in terms of new values and ideas. We contrast this hypothesis with the assumption that economic factors are the main determinants of men’s parental leave decisions. Our main finding is that fathers are more likely to be on parental leave if they have a highly educated or older partner. We also find that employment through a temporary working contract substantially lowers the chances that men will take advantage of parental leave, while being employed in the public sector increases the chances that men will use their parental leave entitlement.Germany, employment

A Multilevel Analysis of Child Care and the Transition to Motherhood in Western Germany

In this paper, we take a multilevel perspective to investigate the role of child care in the transition to motherhood in Germany. We argue that in the European institutional context the availability of public day care and informal child care arrangements should be a central element of the local opportunity structure regarding the compatibility of childrearing and women's employment. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we apply a multilevel discrete time logit model to estimate first birth risks of western German women. While we find that access to informal care arrangements increases the probability of entering parenthood, we do not find any statistically significant effect of the public day care provision. This result probably points to shortcomings in the specific institutional set-up of the German daycare regime, and to the existence of potentially relevant unobserved dimensions of child care.child care, fertility, multilevel analysis, Germany

Childcare and fertility in (western) Germany

This paper analyzes the relationship between children’s day care and fertility in Germany. First, different modes of childcare are discussed with regard to their availability and costs. We then estimate the impact of having access to public day care and care in social networks on first birth probabilities of western German women in the 1980s and 1990s. The empirical analysis does not reveal any statistically significant effect of childcare availability on fertility. We conclude that the overall institutional constraints of day care in (western) Germany prevent the compatibility of childrearing and employment, thereby forcing women to choose between a continuous employment career or childlessness. (AUTHORS)Germany, child care, fertility