Security in the Age of Systemic Risk: Strategies, Tactics and Options for Dealing with Femtorisks and Beyond

The world today is increasingly confronted with systemic threats and challenges, in which femtorisks - small-scale dangers that are inherent to system structures and function and which pose asymmetrically catastrophic risks - can build in consequence, spreading uncontrollably like epidemics in both natural and social systems in such diverse areas as ecology, epidemiology, finance, the Internet, terrorism, and international relations. They have been successfully modeled in ecology in the context of complex adaptive systems: systems made up of individual agents, whose interactions have macroscopic consequences that feed back to influence individual behavior. While acknowledging challenges, this paper argues for the value of applying to societal systems the approaches that natural scientists have developed in quantifying and modeling biological interactions and ecosystems

War or terrorism: A search for focus

In understanding and dealing with violent internal conflicts, it is important to begin with a conceptualization of their causal ingredients as a guide to a search for their solutions. While internal wars are often thought to be based on Need, Need alone is not sufficient to cause conflict; conflict occurs when Need is unevenly and unfairly distributed, allowing targeted groups to identify and mobilize (Creed) and then to compete for resources both for the resistance movement and for its political entrepreneurs (Greed).1 Each of the three elements in the conflict in turn requires a different type of justice as a solution. These elements pose complex challenges for mediators, and underscore the importance of prevention over cure. Prevention eliminates the opportunity on which Greed and Creed feed. But once the three combine to nourish conflict, mediation becomes a tough job of uncertain entry and long duration

International Negotiation: Analysis, Approaches, Issues

Negotiation researchers and practitioners from over 10 countries offer a state-of-the-art synthesis of contemporary negotiation theory, perspectives for understanding negotiation dynamics, and innovative strategies for producing enduring, mutually satisfactory agreements. The book examines the different levels of analysis and methodological approaches by which negotiations can be assessed. The principal areas in which international negotiations have been applied -- arms control, trade talks, environment, terrorism, scientific exchange -- are reviewed. Finally, a section is devoted to the application of theory and research to the training of diplomats and policy makers in the practice of negotiation

International Negotiation. Analysis, Approaches, Issues. Second Edition

The first edition of "International Negotiation" became a best-selling classic in the field of global conflict resolution. This second edition has been substantially revised and updated to meet the challenges of today's complex international community. Developed under the direction of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, this important resource contains contributions from some of the world's leading experts in international negotiation, representing a wide range of nations and disciplines. They offer a synthesis of contemporary negotiation theory, perspectives for understanding negotiation dynamics, and strategies for producing mutually satisfactory and enduring agreements that is particularly relevant in these times

International Economic Negotiation: Models versus Reality

Historians and diplomats often claim that each international negotiation is a unique event. In contrast, negotiation theory, building on several academic disciplines, argues that international bargaining is characterized by recurrent patterns that can be generalized and formalized. In the context of that debate, this book addresses whether international economic negotiations differ from other types of negotiation and examines what might be typical and, possibly, special about economic negotiation. It also studies the extent to which economic theory as opposed to negotiation theory can explain the outcome of international economic negotiations. Using the framework of a comparative case study, the authors look at the most important economic issues that are traditionally at stake: trade, money, finance, macroeconomic affairs and direct investment. The cases represent government-to-government, business-to-business and business-to-government negotiations and are described by those who were either personally involved in the negotiations or were close observers. This excellent book will be of great interest to students and scholars of international economics, international business, management and game theory