Parkinson's Law Quantified: Three Investigations on Bureaucratic Inefficiency

We formulate three famous, descriptive essays of C.N. Parkinson on bureaucratic inefficiency in a quantifiable and dynamical socio-physical framework. In the first model we show how the use of recent opinion formation models for small groups can be used to understand Parkinson's observation that decision making bodies such as cabinets or boards become highly inefficient once their size exceeds a critical 'Coefficient of Inefficiency', typically around 20. A second observation of Parkinson - which is sometimes referred to as Parkinson's Law - is that the growth of bureaucratic or administrative bodies usually goes hand in hand with a drastic decrease of its overall efficiency. In our second model we view a bureaucratic body as a system of a flow of workers, which enter, become promoted to various internal levels within the system over time, and leave the system after having served for a certain time. Promotion usually is associated with an increase of subordinates. Within the proposed model it becomes possible to work out the phase diagram under which conditions bureaucratic growth can be confined. In our last model we assign individual efficiency curves to workers throughout their life in administration, and compute the optimum time to send them to old age pension, in order to ensure a maximum of efficiency within the body - in Parkinson's words we compute the 'Pension Point'.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figure

Political institutions and debt crises

This paper shows that political institutions matter in explaining defaults on external and domestic debt obligations. We explore a large number of political and macroeconomic variables using a non-parametric technique to predict safety from default. The advantage of this technique is that it is able to identify patterns in the data that are not captured in standard probit analysis. We find that political factors matter, and do so in different ways for democratic and non-democratic regimes, and for domestic and external debt. In democracies, a parliamentary system or sufficient checks and balances almost guarantee the absence of default on external debt when economic fundamentals or liquidity are sufficiently strong. In dictatorships, high stability and tenure play a similar role for default on domestic debt

QUANTITATIVE NON-DESTRUCTIVE NEUTRON ACTIVATION ANALYSIS OF SILVER IN COINS

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/65909/1/j.1475-4754.1967.tb00617.x.pd

PRIVATE SAVINGS IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: ARE THERE TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS?

The paper examines the impact of terms of trade shocks on private savings in the transition economies after accounting for the effect of other determinants. Economic agents in the transition economies are subject to tight credit constraints which are more pronounced during bad state of nature. Thus, adverse shocks to commodity prices in the world market can force them to reduce savings by a larger amount than they would otherwise have. Empirical analysis using a dynamic panel model and data from twenty one transition economies confirm that most of the determinants of savings identified in the literature also apply to the transition economies. Favorable movements in both the permanent and transitory components of the terms of trade have a significant positive impact on private savings with transitory movements having a larger impact than the permanent component. This reflects the lack of access to foreign borrowing that many of the transition economies have faced during the last decade. Although the impact of terms of trade shocks are found to be asymmetric, the magnitude of the impact appears to be small. The results are robust for alternative estimators, determinants, and country groupings.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39958/3/wp572.pd

IDENTIFICATION OF THE GEOLOGIC ORIGINS OF ARCHAEOLOGICAL ARTIFACTS: AN AUTOMATED METHOD OF Na and Mn NEUTRON ACTIVATION ANALYSIS

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/66345/1/j.1475-4754.1967.tb00618.x.pd

Confirmation of a non-synonymous SNP in PNPLA8 as a candidate causal mutation for Weaver syndrome in Brown Swiss cattle

Background: Bovine progressive degenerative myeloencephalopathy (Weaver syndrome) is a neurodegenerative disorder in Brown Swiss cattle that is characterized by progressive hind leg weakness and ataxia, while sensorium and spinal reflexes remain unaffected. Although the causal mutation has not been identified yet, an indirect genetic test based on six microsatellite markers and consequent exclusion of Weaver carriers from breeding have led to the complete absence of new cases for over two decades. Evaluation of disease status by imputation of 41 diagnostic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and a common haplotype published in 2013 identified several suspected carriers in the current breeding population, which suggests a higher frequency of the Weaver allele than anticipated. In order to prevent the reemergence of the disease, this study aimed at mapping the gene that underlies Weaver syndrome and thus at providing the basis for direct genetic testing and monitoring of today's Braunvieh/Brown Swiss herds. Results: Combined linkage/linkage disequilibrium mapping on Bos taurus chromosome (BTA) 4 based on Illumina Bovine SNP50 genotypes of 43 Weaver-affected, 31 Weaver carrier and 86 Weaver-free animals resulted in a maximum likelihood ratio test statistic value at position 49,812,384 bp. The confidence interval (0.853 Mb) determined by the 2-LOD drop-off method was contained within a 1.72-Mb segment of extended homozygosity. Exploitation of whole-genome sequence data from two official Weaver carriers and 1145 other bulls that were sequenced in Run4 of the 1000 bull genomes project showed that only a non-synonymous SNP (rs800397662) within the PNPLA8 gene at position 49,878,773 bp was concordant with the Weaver carrier status. Targeted SNP genotyping confirmed this SNP as a candidate causal mutation for Weaver syndrome. Genotyping for the candidate causal mutation in a random sample of 2334 current Braunvieh animals suggested a frequency of the Weaver allele of 0.26 %. Conclusions: Through combined use of exhaustive sequencing data and SNP genotyping results, we were able to provide evidence that supports the non-synonymous mutation at position 49,878,773 bp as the most likely causal mutation for Weaver syndrome. Further studies are needed to uncover the exact mechanisms that underlie this syndrome