The Influence of Ron Paul: Loud Bang or Flash in the Pan?

The 2012 primary season has been one of the most volatile in recent memory, with the Republican Party struggling to settle on a candidate. The campaign has also vaulted some previously obscure politicians to national prominence, only to relegate them again to obscurity. Ron Paul has demonstrated perhaps the most dramatic transformation, from a lone voice who was once largely ignored to one of the last four candidates for the nomination, who has performed quite creditably in several primaries. In this article, I examine how much influence Paul is going to have in the short term, up to and including the Republican National Convention. I also examine how lasting his influence will be over the long term, and whether or not he will mount a third-party bid in 2012

Competency-based assessment for the training of PhD students and early-career scientists.

The training of PhD students and early-career scientists is largely an apprenticeship in which the trainee associates with an expert to become an independent scientist. But when is a PhD student ready to graduate, a postdoctoral scholar ready for an independent position, or an early-career scientist ready for advanced responsibilities? Research training by apprenticeship does not uniformly include a framework to assess if the trainee is equipped with the complex knowledge, skills and attitudes required to be a successful scientist in the 21st century. To address this problem, we propose competency-based assessment throughout the continuum of training to evaluate more objectively the development of PhD students and early-career scientists. © 2018, Verderame et al

Demonstrating the Operational Value of Thermodynamic Hyperspectral Profiles in the Pre-Convective Environment

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecasting Offices (WFO). As a part of the transition to operations process, SPoRT attempts to identify possible limitations in satellite observations and provide operational forecasters a product that will result in the most impact on their forecasts. One operational forecast challenge that some NWS offices face, is forecasting convection in data-void regions such as large bodies of water. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a sounding instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite that provides temperature and moisture profiles of the atmosphere. This paper will demonstrate an approach to assimilate AIRS profile data into a regional configuration of the WRF model using its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation component to be used as a proxy for the individual profiles

Demonstrating the Operational Value of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Retrieved Profiles in the Pre-Convective Environment

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. One operational forecast challenge is forecasting convective weather in data-void regions such as large bodies of water (e.g. Gulf of Mexico). To address this forecast challenge, SPoRT produces a twice-daily three-dimensional analysis that blends a model first-guess from the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model with retrieved profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) -- a hyperspectral sounding instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite that provides temperature and moisture profiles of the atmosphere. AIRS profiles are unique in that they give a three dimensional view of the atmosphere that is not available through the current rawinsonde network. AIRS has two overpass swaths across North America each day, one valid in the 0700-0900 UTC timeframe and the other in the 1900-2100 UTC timeframe. This is helpful because the rawinsonde network only has data from 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC at specific land-based locations. Comparing the AIRS analysis product with control analyses that include no AIRS data demonstrates the value of the retrieved profiles to situational awareness for the pre-convective (and convective) environment. In an attempt to verify that the AIRS analysis was a good representation of the vertical structure of the atmosphere, both the AIRS and control analyses are compared to a Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analysis used by operational forecasters. Using guidance from operational forecasters, convective available potential energy (CAPE) was determined to be a vital variable in making convective forecasts and is used herein to demonstrate the utility of the AIRS profiles in changing the vertical thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere in the pre-convective and convective environment. CAPE is an important metric because of it is a quantitative measure of atmospheric stability, which is necessary information when forecasting for convective weather. Case studies from the summer of 2010 were examined, and most impact from the AIRS retrieved profiles occurred over the data-void Gulf of Mexico with fields of convective potential closer to the RUC than the CNTL. Mixed results were found when AIRS retrieved profiles were used over land, so more cases need to be examined to determine whether AIRS would be an effective tool over land. Additional analyses of problematic convective forecasts over the Gulf Coast will be needed to determine the operational impact of AIRS. SPoRT eventually plans to transition the AIRS product to select Weather Forecast Office (WFO) partners, pending the outcome of these additional analyses

Sensitivity Studies for the Exercise I-1 of the OECD/UAM Benchmark

OECD/NEA has initiated an international Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) benchmark focused on uncertainties in modeling of Light Water Reactor (LWR). The first step of uncertainty propagation is to perform sensitivity to the input data affected by the numerical errors and physical models. The objective of the present paper is to study the effect of the numerical discretization error and the manufacturing tolerances on fuel pin lattice integral parameters (multiplication factor and macroscopic cross-sections) through sensitivity calculations. The two-dimensional deterministic codes NEWT and HELIOS were selected for this work. The NEWT code was used for analysis of the TMI-1, PB-2, and Kozloduy-6 test cases; the TMI-1 test case was investigated using the HELIOS code. The work has been performed within the framework of UAM Exercise I-1 "Cell Physics.

A Morse-theoretical analysis of gravitational lensing by a Kerr-Newman black hole

Consider, in the domain of outer communication of a Kerr-Newman black hole, a point (observation event) and a timelike curve (worldline of light source). Assume that the worldline of the source (i) has no past end-point, (ii) does not intersect the caustic of the past light-cone of the observation event, and (iii) goes neither to the horizon nor to infinity in the past. We prove that then for infinitely many positive integers k there is a past-pointing lightlike geodesic of (Morse) index k from the observation event to the worldline of the source, hence an observer at the observation event sees infinitely many images of the source. Moreover, we demonstrate that all lightlike geodesics from an event to a timelike curve in the domain of outer communication are confined to a certain spherical shell. Our characterization of this spherical shell shows that in the Kerr-Newman spacetime the occurrence of infinitely many images is intimately related to the occurrence of centrifugal-plus-Coriolis force reversal.Comment: 14 pages, 2 figures; REVTEX; submitted to J. Math. Phy

Spin-Phonon Coupling and Dynamic Zero-Field Splitting Contributions to Spin Conversion Processes in Iron(II) Complexes

Magnetization dynamics of transition metal complexes manifest in properties and phenomena of fundamental and applied interest [e.g., slow magnetic relaxation in single molecule magnets, quantum coherence in quantum bits (qubits), and intersystem crossing (ISC) rates in photophysics]. While spin–phonon coupling is recognized as an important determinant of these dynamics, additional fundamental studies are required to unravel the nature of the coupling and, thus, leverage it in molecular engineering approaches. To this end, we describe here a combined ligand field theory and multireference ab initio model to define spin–phonon coupling terms in S = 2 transition metal complexes and demonstrate how couplings originate from both the static and dynamic properties of ground and excited states. By extending concepts to spin conversion processes, ligand field dynamics manifest in the evolution of the excited state origins of zero-field splitting (ZFS) along specific normal mode potential energy surfaces. Dynamic ZFSs provide a powerful means to independently evaluate contributions from spin-allowed and/or spin-forbidden excited states to spin–phonon coupling terms. Furthermore, ratios between various intramolecular coupling terms for a given mode drive spin conversion processes in transition metal complexes and can be used to analyze the mechanisms of ISC. Variations in geometric structure strongly influence the relative intramolecular linear spin–phonon coupling terms and will define the overall spin state dynamics. While the findings of this study are of general importance for understanding magnetization dynamics, they also link the phenomenon of spin–phonon coupling across fields of single molecule magnetism, quantum materials/qubits, and transition metal photophysics